When will the US government shutdown end? Will the expected rebound in US stocks and surge in cryptocurrencies occur?

Original article by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

More than 41 days have passed since the US government shutdown.

For the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market, and even the global economic market, which are closely linked to the US government, the situation during this period has undoubtedly been extremely difficult. The direct economic losses caused by the government shutdown, as well as the damage to confidence in various markets and the compression of liquidity, have been devastating.

Yesterday's 60-40 passage of the procedural vote in the US Senate on ending the government shutdown has finally brought hope for a resolution. Odaily will share some speculations in this article regarding the channels through which the US government shutdown vote was announced and the estimated end time of the shutdown, for readers' reference.

The most direct indicator of a US government shutdown: the White House shutdown timer.

As the epicenter of this longest government shutdown in history, the White House is undoubtedly one of the focal points of the event.

Therefore, the most direct way to check the duration of the US government shutdown is through the "Government Shutdown Clock" on the White House website: https://www.whitehouse.gov/government-shutdown-clock/

According to the information on the interface, as of the time of writing, the duration of the "Democrats causing government shutdown" has been extended to approximately 41 days, 5 hours, and 35 minutes.

In addition, the website thoughtfully displays data indicators such as economic losses, unemployment, and decreased consumer spending in each state due to the government shutdown; furthermore, the website also shows citizens of each state information such as appeals from state senators and representatives.

Govtrack.us, a third-party website tracking the US government shutdown.

Aside from official timelines, a more comprehensive and centralized source of information is Govtrack.us, an independent third-party event tracking website that has consistently monitored the activities of the US government —https://www.govtrack.us/

According to its website, the latest development in the case is the voting results of HR 5371, the "Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Department, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Extension Act of 2026".

Media tracking and reporting websites: CNN, NBC, Reuters, etc.

Besides official and third-party channels, media outlets are also a crucial source of information confirming the official end of the US government shutdown. In this regard, relevant special sections on CNN, NBC, and Reuters can be used as references.

CNN Special Page ;

NBC "Shutdown End" Search Page

Reuters "U.S. Dynamics" related page

Finally, the Senate voting results can be found at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes_new.htm ; the House voting and related bill progress can be found at https://www.congress.gov/ .

The US government shutdown is expected to end this week, and the market is poised for a rebound.

In addition to bringing some liquidity to the financial and crypto markets, the US government shutdown will undoubtedly have a more direct and powerful boost to market confidence. However, analysts are currently taking a conservative view, believing that this news is more of a short-term positive.

TD Securities: The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Wednesday, and the government shutdown is expected to end on Friday.

Prashant Newnaha, senior interest rate strategist for Asia Pacific at TD Securities, said the next step is expected to be a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday (regarding the temporary funding bill), with the U.S. government likely to reopen this Friday.

Furthermore, it noted that the US shutdown has undoubtedly had a negative impact on the economy, but the market is likely to expect a rapid rebound after the shutdown ends. Aside from short-term positive sentiment, the direct market impact of the shutdown ending should become limited after the beginning of next week.

Economist's View: A large batch of poor-quality data may impact the market after the US government shutdown ends.

With the US government shutdown becoming clearer, Wall Street may soon see a large batch of key economic reports that have been delayed for more than a month. First up will be the September jobs data. Morgan Stanley economists estimate the September jobs report could be released as early as this Friday, but more likely early next week.

Furthermore, in the worst-case scenario, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index may not be released at all. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Another possibility is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will attempt to piece together the inflation trend for the month. However, economists say the report's quality will be significantly compromised, and its release may be so late as to be almost meaningless.

The delayed release of the September jobs report and the absence of the October inflation report will leave the Federal Reserve without sufficient information to make a decision on whether to cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting.

Historical patterns suggest that clinging to outdated methods can lead to irrational market behavior; the market may surge once the shutdown ends.

According to blogger @BunnyTalks_ , the US government has shut down 21 times since 1976, averaging 6 days each time. Furthermore, according to his observations, "Based on past performance, the market tends to be lukewarm or even decline during government shutdowns, but once the shutdown ends, the market surges dramatically. This pattern has been validated in the three major shutdowns of 1995-1996, 2013, and 2018-2019."

Whether traditional financial markets and the crypto market can rebound as expected still depends on the outcome of the House vote (≥218 votes) and the subsequent signing of the bill by Trump.

It is worth noting that, based on past transmission paths and existing information, the US stock market is likely to react before the crypto market after the US government shutdown ends. Leading stocks may see a more direct rebound, while the rebound of mainstream cryptocurrencies may lag slightly, which warrants caution.