Hunter Biden's Meme Coin Farce Comes to an End: LAPTOP Hits $200 Billion Market Cap at Open, Crashes 99% Overnight

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

Last night, the Meme project that had drawn both widespread mockery and anticipation — LAPTOP, the coin launched by Biden's son — finally made its debut.

Before the open, prediction markets estimated LAPTOP's FDV would fall in the $100 million to $250 million range, yet its opening market cap briefly surged past $200 billion. A night later, LAPTOP's price rapidly retreated, currently sitting at $0.85, down 99% from its peak, with an FDV of $850 million.

In this Meme farce, some profited by sniping the open, while more were "counter-sniped" in the attempt; some earned hundreds of thousands of dollars through Substack subscriptions, while others snatched profit from the fire and successfully cashed out. For the majority of losers, LAPTOP is destined to become yet another pillar of shame, comparable to Argentine President Milei's Meme coin LIBRA.

No wonder Trump's son Eric mocked Biden's son Hunter: "You should go back to painting." Evidently, drawing K-lines may be second nature to the Trump family of businessmen, but for Biden's son — once mired in drug addiction and now a "multi-million-dollar debtor" — it is clearly quite a challenge. (Recommended reading: "Biden's Son Launches Meme Coin LAPTOP, Promises Airdrop to TRUMP Holders")

Opening Market Cap Exceeds $200 Billion, LAPTOP Stayed at Its Peak for Less Than Half an Hour

Before LAPTOP launched, the community widely predicted its first-day market cap would land in the $100 million to $250 million range.

At the time, on predict.fun, the probability of "LAPTOP FDV above $100 million one day after launch" was 73%, the probability of "LAPTOP FDV above $250 million one day after launch" was 47%, while the probability of a market cap above $1 billion was only 13%. The market generally predicted LAPTOP's ceiling could not reach $1 billion, with disagreement mainly centering on whether the market cap could stabilize above $250 million.

At 8 PM last night, LAPTOP officially launched on the Base network — and peaked on arrival, with its market cap briefly surging past $250 billion. The glory lasted only 15 minutes before LAPTOP's price fell below $130, its market cap quickly halving. By 8:45 PM, the price had plunged to below $5, a drop of 97%. In less than an hour, LAPTOP had nearly lived through the entire lifespan of most Meme coins. But from a market cap estimate perspective, LAPTOP had already vastly exceeded market expectations.

Currently, with half a day still to go before "close," on predict.fun, the probability of "FDV above $250 million" has risen to 87%; the probability of "FDV above $500 million" currently stands at 52%; and the probability of "FDV above $1 billion one day after launch" currently stands at 21%.

As of writing, LAPTOP's market cap stands at $850 million, with a price of $0.85, having broken below the $1 threshold, a decline of over 99%.

A Tale of Two Extremes: Some Raked in Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars, Others Lost Millions

LAPTOP, built around the concept of "Biden's son," delivered a harsh lesson to the crypto market, much like former US President Biden himself.

At midnight today, on-chain data analytics platform Bubblemaps posted statistics showing that LAPTOP token trading was a "bloodbath," with roughly 80% of traders suffering losses. Reportedly, at least 2 traders lost between $100,000 and $1 million, 100 traders lost more than $10,000, about 700 traders lost more than $1,000, and another roughly 11,000 traders incurred smaller losses. Given the even lower prices now, the scale of losses is expected to expand further.

Moreover, the insider manipulation drama typical of "celebrity Meme coins" was not absent. Bubblemaps posted last night that among LAPTOP's major holder addresses, about 60% had no prior on-chain activity, with most new wallets actually receiving funds only yesterday.

Of course, in this Meme feast, where some lose, others profit — the Meme coin market has always been a zero-sum game.

The Profit-Takers: Market Makers Wintermute, GSR, G20, and Other Institutions

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, LAPTOP's market makers include GSR Markets, G20, and Wintermute, with the three institutions corresponding to 15.5 million, 5 million, and 2.5 million market-making tokens respectively, accounting for 2.3% of LAPTOP's total supply.

At around 9 PM last night, Wintermute had already sold over 466,000 LAPTOP at an average price of $4.47, worth about $2.08 million, and was continuing to dump on-chain.

The Fire-Grabbers: Snipers Profited with Returns of 278x, 65x, and 4x

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, one sniper spent only 900 USDC to buy 2,268.56 LAPTOP at $0.40 each, then sold it all at an average price of $111 per token, pocketing over $250,000 — a 278x return.

Additionally, according to Onchain Lens's monitoring, one trader bought 471 LAPTOP for $997 and sold it all two minutes later for $66,800, earning $65,100 — a 65x return.

One address, at the very moment LAPTOP launched, bought 9,124.19 LAPTOP at an average price of $27.383, spending $250,000; it has since sold nearly 93% of its position at $140.48, profiting over $1.04 million, a return of 415.8%.

One whale invested $240,000 at the open, buying at $24, then gradually sold LAPTOP worth $1.2 million, profiting about $1 million.

Suspected Insider Activity: 2 Subscription Airdrop Wallets Cashed Out $600,000 After Claiming Tokens

According to crypto trader Rune's monitoring, 2 LAPTOP subscription airdrop wallets cashed out $600,000 after claiming their tokens.

One new wallet (0x8DA...A18d) claimed 4,276 LAPTOP for free, then sold it, cashing out about $400,000.

More notably, that wallet then transferred 0.02 ETH to another new wallet (0xc27...b591), which likewise claimed 4,276 LAPTOP for free and immediately sold after the price dropped due to the previous sell-off, cashing out about $200,000.

Loss Showcase: Buying at the Peak Down 98%, Buying the Dip Down 92% and 87%

At 9 PM last night, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, one address bought 919.4 Meme tokens LAPTOP at $217.5, investing about 200,000 USDC. Just about 50 minutes later, LAPTOP's price had fallen to $4.4, and the address's holdings had shrunk 98% to about $4,045, an unrealized loss of roughly $196,000 — making it one of the addresses with the heaviest losses on LAPTOP.

Another address bought LAPTOP twice, spending about $250,000 in total. Hours after the first purchase, its holdings were worth just $700; the second purchase halved immediately. The address holds 25,286 LAPTOP at an average cost of $9.8, with an unrealized loss of 92% — a loss of $227,000.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, after LAPTOP dropped 98%, one address spent $170,000 to buy 28,400 LAPTOP at $5.97; that position is now worth $21,000, down another 87% from the purchase price.

Ansem, Bonkguy, and Eric Trump Slam It: LAPTOP Is the Next LIBRA; Is Hunter Biden the Next Milei?

Before and after LAPTOP's launch, several crypto traders expressed strong bearish views. Eric Trump, mentioned at the beginning, even mocked Hunter Biden, saying he "might as well go home and paint" — which also shows from the sidelines that this farce was doomed from the start.

Crypto trader Ansem previously said that 99% of celebrity Meme coins are scams, with celebrities and developers acquiring large amounts of tokens in advance, using hype to lure retail investors in before dumping, and then ceasing ongoing operations. Ansem was skeptical of Hunter Biden's upcoming LAPTOP coin, believing it was no different from past projects.

After LAPTOP launched, the recently popular "best Meme coin hunter" Bonk Guy posted a scathing critique of Hunter Biden's "LAPTOP"-related token project, stating that after further observing its situation following launch, he believed the project was clearly a speculative act of "wanting only to extract profit while knowing little about the crypto industry."

He particularly questioned the token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) of up to hundreds of billions of dollars after launch, calling the valuation "utterly absurd," and questioned why Hunter Biden himself would become the narrative core of the crypto market. He pointed out that Hunter Biden's public attention largely stems from the many controversies he stirred during his father Joe Biden's tenure as US President, a period in which the Biden administration generally took a relatively hardline regulatory stance toward the crypto industry. Bonk Guy concluded by warning that investors buying the token at current valuations face extremely high risk, stating that "anyone who buys it deserves to lose 100% of their money."

It is worth noting that before LAPTOP launched, Hunter Biden had explained his reasons for launching the Meme coin, saying users "should not expect me or anyone else to make this token more valuable," and that LAPTOP was not just about holding an asset, but about expressing an attitude. In hindsight, this was an attempt to imitate the Trump family's coin issuance that fell far short of the mark — a clumsy effort that backfired while still trying to save a shred of face. Unfortunately, in the face of a rapidly crashing Meme coin, the little remaining reputation of this "son of a former US President" was entirely spent, reducing him to a laughingstock of the crypto market.

It is worth noting that, according to prior disclosures by the Phoenix Veritas Foundation behind LAPTOP, the Meme coin has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 350 million unlocked at TGE, accounting for 35% of total supply. Of that, first-day community airdrops, future airdrops, and liquidity each account for 10%, while the foundation treasury accounts for 5%. Of the 100 million LAPTOP airdropped on the first day, 20 million were intended to be distributed by partner platforms to users who lost money trading TRUMP, and 80 million were for users who subscribed to Hunter Biden's "Where's Hunter" Substack before September 6. The claim period is 30 days, and tokens not claimed in time will be permanently burned; the 100 million tokens for future airdrops will be distributed at the discretion of the Phoenix Veritas Foundation.

At this point, it is unclear whether TRUMP trading loss users actually received those 20 million LAPTOP as promised.

The latest news shows that the LAPTOP foundation account has been suspended, but Hunter Biden himself still stated: "I will never give up on LAPTOP, and am doing everything I can to get the account restored. During this period, the foundation will share the latest updates and thoughts via Medium."

Whether this is a stalling tactic or a statement of resolve, everything may now depend on the personal character of Hunter Biden himself.