Bitcoin drops below $70,000 — is now the time to buy the dip?

Odaily资深作者

2026-11-13 15:02 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2707 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Jensen Huang's personal scandal is merely a short-term catalyst for the decline, and Bitcoin's long-term outlook is also not optimistic.

AI Summary

Core Viewpoint: Bitcoin's drop below $70,000 was not driven by a single event, but rather the result of a triple bearish convergence: the tech stock sentiment shock triggered by Jensen Huang's resignation, the stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI reinforcing tightening expectations, sustained outflows from institutional ETF funds, and contraction in stablecoin supply. Whether the market has bottomed will depend on improvement in macroeconomic data and institutional liquidity indicators.
Key Elements:
1. Jensen Huang announced his resignation on November 12, Nvidia's stock closed down approximately 4.34%, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 within 24 hours with a drop of over 7%, ETH fell below $2,000 with a drop of over 6%, and 92% of the top 200 tokens by market cap declined.
2. U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the expected 0.3%, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, above the forecast of 0.2%. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in December briefly rose to 15%, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, and risk appetite declined significantly.
3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 5 consecutive trading days totaling over $1.4 billion, with a single-day outflow of $300 million on November 11; total stablecoin supply decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the largest 30-day decline since 2022.
4. MSCI removed three crypto treasury companies — Strategy, Metaplanet, and Upexi — from its related indices. Tracking funds held approximately 13 million shares of MSTR, and JPMorgan estimated forced selling of $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion.
5. Polymarket data shows the probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in November rose to 56%, while the probability of returning above $75,000 is only 29%; Glassnode noted that the 30-day average of the Coinbase Premium Index fell to its lowest level since February this year.
6. Institutions and traders are clearly divided: analysts from CICC and Huobi HTX believe a 25 basis point rate hike in December is more likely and that short-term downside is limited; trader Killa warned that a breach of key support could lead to new lows, and some traders have chosen to close positions or buy the dip.

Original | Odaily@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

As Jensen Huang's extramarital affairs are exposed one after another, the chip industry's top figure has let down not only his wife and family, but also the wallets of tech VCs.

On the evening of November 12, Jensen Huang announced his resignation before the U.S. stock market opened, with CFO Colette Kress serving as interim CEO of Nvidia. After the news was announced, Nvidia's stock price fell more than 10% at one point, eventually closing down about 4.34%. Not only did tech and AI sector stocks suffer a sentiment blow, but the crypto market's performance was dragged down as well.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, dropping more than 7%; ETH fell below $2,000, dropping more than 6%. According to Quantify crypto data, over the past 24 hours, among the top 200 tokens by market cap in the crypto market, only 16 maintained gains, while the remaining 92% were in decline.

Meanwhile, according to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in November has risen to 56%, while the probability of returning above $75,000 is only 29%, and the probability of betting that Bitcoin will continue to decline below $60,000 is 19%.

The real bottom-fishing moment has not yet arrived. Jensen Huang's personal scandal and resignation are only important catalysts for today's decline, but this Bitcoin drop actually also reflects the combined effects of macro tightening expectations and institutions tightening liquidity. Whether these bearish factors have been fully digested by the market is what is truly worth referencing for bottom-fishing decisions.

Bearish Factors for Bitcoin

The Underlying Driver Is Macro Tightening Expectations

On November 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month (higher than the expected 0.3%), and core CPI was also stronger, rising 0.3% month-on-month, above the 0.2% forecast. Combined with previously strong employment data, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December exceeding 90%, the market also significantly raised the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in December, once rising to 15%, and now falling back to 9%.

Affected by this, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also climbed back above 5%, the dollar strengthened, the dollar index approached its yearly high, and the market's risk appetite declined significantly. As a non-yielding risk asset, Bitcoin naturally bore the brunt and came under pressure in tandem with gold. On November 10, Bitcoin fell below $75,000.

The market has long digested the scenario of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike; what the market is now focused on is the probability of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike. This Friday, the U.S. will release the Producer Price Index (PPI). If the data is soft, the probability of a 50 basis point hike will shrink, and Bitcoin may still have room to rebound; otherwise, it will come under further pressure.

Institutions Are Tightening Crypto Liquidity

Another important factor weighing on Bitcoin's price is that institutions are tightening crypto liquidity.

According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 5 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows exceeding $1.4 billion. On November 11 alone, single-day net outflows reached $300 million, with IBIT/BlackRock contributing the vast majority. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $92.7 billion worth of Bitcoin, accounting for 1.46% of Bitcoin's market cap. What was once institutional buying as structural support has turned into supply, naturally weakening Bitcoin's price support.

At the same time, stablecoin supply is also contracting rapidly. According to statistics, total stablecoin supply has decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the largest 30-day decline since 2022. This is a core signal of "blood loss" on the demand side of the crypto market, indicating that institutional investors are not even willing to keep funds on the sidelines waiting for bottom-fishing opportunities, but are instead reallocating to other assets, further reducing crypto market liquidity.

If spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows and stablecoin supply data do not improve, then Bitcoin has not yet reached the point of bottoming out and rebounding.

Strategy (MSTR) Removed from MSCI Indexes

There is also a news-related factor in this round of decline: all three crypto treasury companies were removed from MSCI indexes. Strategy will exit the MSCI USA Index, Metaplanet will exit the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index, and Upexi will exit the MSCI USA Micro Cap Index, on the grounds that they do not conform to MSCI's classification of investment/holding companies under its new rules. (Related reading: DAT Hit Again: MSCI Removes Three Treasury Companies, How Long Can Financing-to-Buy-BTC Last?)

It should be noted that funds tracking the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes (GIMI) hold about 13 million shares of MSTR, with a market value of approximately $1.487 billion. JPMorgan previously estimated that forced selling could range between $1.8 billion and $2.8 billion, and if other major index providers follow suit, the scale could increase to about $8.8 billion.

Although what is being sold is not Bitcoin, this will also weaken the Bitcoin treasury narrative and slow Strategy's pace of buying Bitcoin, making market sentiment even worse when institutional demand is already weak. Strategy has already sold Bitcoin this year, and any further selling would certainly also trigger panic in the market.

What Should We Actually Do?

There is currently considerable market divergence over whether to bottom-fish after Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and how the market will move going forward. The short-term view is rather cautious, while over the medium and long term, many institutions and traders remain bullish.

On the institutional side, CICC's research report still believes that the Fed's policy has not clearly "fallen behind the curve," and given that financial conditions have already tightened marginally, the necessity for accelerated rate hikes is not strong. Therefore, it maintains the judgment that this round of tightening will remain gradual and moderate, and believes the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud holds the same view, believing that the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in December is not high. At the same time, Cloud believes that the crypto market Fear and Greed Index has fallen into the extreme fear zone, leverage has been largely flushed out, and the room for Bitcoin to continue falling sharply in the short term is limited. But overshooting does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation of CPI falling back over the next two months is needed.

glassnode said in a post today that demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. market has clearly gone quiet. Throughout the entire correction since Bitcoin's September high, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in negative territory, and its 30-day average has fallen to the lowest level since February this year. But it also noted that previous rallies have started from such deeply negative premium levels.

As for trader operations, most remain cautious. Well-known trader Killa said in a post today that Bitcoin is currently testing a key price level near the 2021 bull market high, which may be the last important support zone for now. If Bitcoin fails to stage an effective rebound in this area, the price may probe further downward and set a new low.

Trader "First Set 10 Big Targets" latest said he has closed all leveraged positions at the current price ($68,000-$69,000), temporarily choosing to control risk and preserve capital. Previously, he said that $76,000 to $78,000 was his planned range to re-enter with a full long position, and he insisted that $58,000 is the bottom for BTC this cycle, expecting Bitcoin to rise to $120,000 within this year.

Some traders, unable to hold back, have already started bottom-fishing. Trader Michaël van de Poppe said in a post on X today that he is bottom-fishing Bitcoin, citing the fact that market sentiment is extremely poor right now but Bitcoin has only fallen about 20%; the price is sitting just below the 200-day moving average, which is a support zone with abundant liquidity; and, combined with historical patterns, Bitcoin typically bottoms before major IPOs (as in the case of the SpaceX IPO).