predict.fun Restarts Its TGE: Is There Still a Chance After the "Disastrous Start"?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

With Binance Alpha market-price trading, withdrawals, and other related services fully restored, predict.fun has finally received a new TGE schedule.

Yesterday, Binance Wallet announced that the predict.fun (PREDICT) TGE will restart next Wednesday at 5 PM. Users who have already received a Prime Sale Key can view their balance and trade via Binance Alpha once the token goes live. The predict.fun team has also opened the Season 1 airdrop allocation checker, with airdrop claims set to begin at the same time (next Wednesday at 5 PM).

Currently, predict.fun is embedded into Binance's main site and Binance Wallet, allowing users in compliant regions to participate directly in prediction trading. Based on prior arrangements, Odaily speculates that PREDICT may list on Binance spot at 6 PM on the day of the TGE, though the exact timing is still subject to official confirmation. As the first project to list on Binance spot after the Binance hack incident, and given its deep integration with Binance's main site, PREDICT's opening performance is drawing particular attention.

The Sole Prediction Market Player on BNB Chain, Backed by Two Rounds of YZi Labs Investment

predict.fun is a prediction market platform on BNB Chain, founded by dingaling, a well-known figure previously in the NFT space. Unlike traditional prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, on predict.fun, users' funds used for predictions are no longer idle—they can also generate additional yield during the prediction period.

As of today, predict.fun has completed two funding rounds, as follows:

• December 2025 (incubation/first round): Entered YZi Labs EASY Residency Season 2, receiving its first round of investment and incubation support;
• April 2, 2026 (strategic follow-on): YZi Labs invested again, with Susquehanna Crypto joining at the same time.

With the TGE restart, predict.fun has also listened to community feedback and adjusted the previously announced airdrop claim rules. For users about to claim their rewards, what has changed in the new rules, and how should they choose?

Claim 35% Instantly or Receive the Full Amount Monthly—A Choice Must Be Made Before TGE

Users can now check their Season 1 PREDICT allocation through the official airdrop page. The airdrop uses an equal-points-equal-rights distribution method, with each point corresponding to 0.14968468 PREDICT. The final amount users can claim depends on the option they choose: they can instantly claim 35% of their allocation, or receive the full amount over 12 months.

This adjustment mainly targets the full-amount claim option. Previously, users had to wait 12 months to claim all tokens at once; after the update, tokens will be released in 12 equal monthly installments, with the first installment available one month after the TGE. According to the current schedule, the first release will occur on December 18, with 1/12 of the total allocation claimable per installment.

Users who want to claim 35% instantly must complete their selection and confirm before the TGE. The option can be switched before the TGE, but once the TGE begins, the choice is locked. Users who do not confirm in advance will automatically be placed in the monthly release option and cannot switch to instant claiming afterward.

Regardless of which option is chosen, tokens will not arrive automatically—users must return to the airdrop page and manually claim once claiming opens. Among them, users who did not confirm before the TGE and were defaulted into the monthly release option must complete their claim within 30 days after claiming opens, otherwise their airdrop allocation will be forfeited. Users who choose monthly release will also need to manually claim each subsequent installment.

In addition, a small number of accounts flagged as compromised or at security risk must follow the prompts on the airdrop page to submit a ticket via the official Discord, verify account ownership, and provide a new secure account address. Once verified, the airdrop allocation will be transferred to the new account.

The Season 1 airdrop allocates a total of 70 million PREDICT, accounting for 7% of the total supply. Beyond the airdrop, how will the remaining tokens be distributed, and how many will enter circulation at listing?

Total Supply of 1 Billion Tokens, Initial Circulating Supply Likely Below 16%

According to official information, PREDICT has a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens, of which ecosystem and community accounts for 51.95%, early supporters 26.05%, core contributors 10%, treasury 8%, and liquidity 4%. The 70 million tokens for this Season 1 airdrop come from the ecosystem and community allocation.

According to the officially announced unlock schedule, 16% of the total supply—160 million tokens—is planned to unlock at TGE. The combined 36.05% held by early supporters and core contributors will be fully locked at TGE, with a 24-month lock-up period followed by a 36-month monthly release.

However, since the airdrop has two claim options, the actual initial circulating supply may be lower than the aforementioned 16%. Assuming all airdrop users choose to claim 35% instantly, then of the 70 million airdrop tokens, the amount distributed immediately would be 24.5 million, accounting for 2.45% of the total supply. If the remaining 90 million tokens planned for unlock all enter circulation, the initial circulating supply would be 114.5 million, accounting for 11.45% of the total supply. The more users who choose monthly claims, the fewer tokens will actually enter circulation at listing.

Summary

For predict.fun, this TGE could be described as an "auspicious start gone wrong." First, the Binance hack caused the TGE to be postponed; last night, Jensen Huang's resignation as CEO dealt another blow to the market—PREDICT has run into a string of bad news before it even starts trading.

Nevertheless, Binance's traffic gateway can still bring users to the platform. The team has also stated that it will add more utility to the token after the TGE and has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to long-term building. As Binance's "golden child," predict.fun may still have a chance to make its mark in the secondary market.