After just a week of talking up the market, Arthur Hayes has once again bailed first
- Core Viewpoint: Arthur Hayes rapidly liquidated approximately $26 million worth of tokens shortly after publicly turning bullish, with his repeated flip-flopping exposing his "pump-and-dump" pattern—retail investors who blindly follow his statements are highly likely to become exit liquidity.
- Key Elements:
- On October 24, Hayes liquidated ETH, ENA, UNI, and other tokens, reducing his position by approximately $26 million in a single day and converting a cumulative $49.24 million into USDC.
- Just ten days earlier (October 15), he had publicly gone long on BTC and ETH, and in August he even predicted ETH would rise to $20,000–$30,000.
- ETH accounted for the largest share of the sell-off, with 8,000 ETH at an average price of $2,369—a stark contrast to his earlier high-profile bullish calls.
- The only stated reason for selling was macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, with no specific target price or exit conditions provided, casting doubt on the validity of his predictions.
- His tens-of-millions-of-dollars sell-off itself impacts market sentiment and exacerbates the downturn, making it difficult to credit him with any "precise prediction."
- The author points out that Hayes has long employed a habitual playbook of first talking up the market to stoke sentiment, then dumping on-chain—whether he gets proved wrong doesn't matter; making a profit is what counts.
Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Arthur Hayes has once again proven, through his actual actions, that not a single word he says can be trusted.
On October 24, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and founder of Maelstrom, posted that he had liquidated his directional portfolio, selling ETH, ENA, UNI, and various other "shitcoins," and planned to step aside temporarily until the risks subside before re-entering the market.
The reason Arthur Hayes gave for his bearish stance was: the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment looks somewhat tricky, and the market may need to fall further before the next rally can begin.
According to monitoring by analyst Yu Jin, on October 24 alone, Arthur Hayes reduced his token positions by approximately $26 million, specifically including:
- 8,000 ETH at $2,369.18 per unit, worth $19 million;
- 14 million ENA at $0.191 per unit, worth $2.76 million;
- 323,000 UNI at $6.85 per unit, worth $2.24 million;
- 1.89 million ETHFI at $0.635 per unit, worth $1.23 million;
- 547,000 AERO at $0.716 per unit, worth $400,000;
- 120,000 PENDLE at $2 per unit, worth $240,000;
- 3 million ZAMA at $0.0706 per unit, worth $210,000...
According to the latest monitoring data from Onchain Lens in the early hours of October 26, the total USDC that Arthur Hayes received from his recent massive sell-off has reached $49.24 million.
Still Bullish Just a Week Ago
What makes this situation particularly ironic to the community is that Arthur Hayes' speed in reversing his market predictions is simply impossible to keep up with.
Rewind even just ten days. On October 15, Arthur Hayes was still on X passionately rallying the community's faith. At the time, the market was discussing a potential future bubble burst in the AI industry. Arthur Hayes stated that he wasn't sure whether AI would crash, but rather than predicting when the bubble would burst, it would be better to bet on the large-scale bailout that might follow, and explicitly stated he was going long on BTC and ETH.
Going further back, Arthur Hayes had also repeatedly made high-profile bullish calls in online interviews or offline events over the past few months.
Particularly when he appeared on the Altcoin Daily podcast in late August (see "Arthur Hayes' 10,000-Word Interview: ETH to $30,000; FLOP Will Surpass ETH"), Arthur Hayes transformed on the spot into an "ETH guardian," saying he was completely comfortable allocating a larger notional position to ETH longs in his portfolio, even declaring that ETH would surge to $20,000 or even $30,000.
As it turns out, in this round of selling, what Arthur Hayes sold the most was ETH, at an average price of about $2,369...
As for other altcoins, Arthur Hayes had previously also repeatedly talked up tokens like ENA and UNI, with his rhetoric often focusing on "cash flow," "value capture," "quality DeFi infrastructure," and "high-beta assets"; but when selling now, he simply dismissed them all as "shitcoins."
The Market Did Fall, but It's Hard to Call It a Successful Prediction
Back to the market — looking at it now in hindsight, Arthur Hayes' timing for exiting seems quite precise.
BTC has been continuously weakening over the past few days, officially falling below $80,000 this morning and has yet to effectively recover. As market sentiment turned cold, Arthur Hayes chose to sell his directional positions and recover capital, at least temporarily avoiding the risk of further declines — but this doesn't prove he successfully predicted the market.
First, the reasons Arthur Hayes gave were quite broad, mainly citing uncertainty in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, without clearly stating where BTC would fall to, nor giving specific entry or exit conditions. The market fell, so one could say his caution paid off; but if the market rebounds quickly afterward, the current liquidation could equally cause him to miss a rally.
Second, Arthur Hayes' capital size and personal influence are what they are — a sell-off involving tens of millions of dollars would inherently impact market trends and sentiment, thereby exacerbating the market's decline.
Not a Word From This Guy Can Be Trusted
If you regularly follow Odaily's previous tracking reports (see "When Arthur Hayes Suddenly Shills the Coin You Bought, You Should Be Careful"), you should already be accustomed to this classic move of "talking up the price, dumping on-chain."
This is far from the first time Arthur Hayes has pulled the same trick. From HYPE to ENA, he always first praises a token extensively in blog posts or on X, painting a grand narrative for retail investors, even personally calling out extremely exaggerated target prices; then when market sentiment has been stirred up and liquidity improves, he suddenly dumps on retail investors (Odaily note: last year Arthur Hayes spoke at WebX in Japan and shilled HYPE, claiming the token still had up to 126x upside potential — then it only rose 15% and he was already gone).
Put simply, for Arthur Hayes, who controls hundreds of millions of dollars and is well-versed in how to manipulate market sentiment, whether he gets proven wrong doesn't matter — what matters is whether he can actually secure profits. You can call him fickle, but he can also frame it as "trading discipline" or "flexible risk management" — today he thinks macro conditions call for easing so he goes all-in, tomorrow he thinks geopolitics looks off so he liquidates with one click, and even if he exits at a loss he never lingers. This is indeed the skill that allows top traders to survive in a brutal market.
But for ordinary retail investors, if you truly treat his long posts and interviews as investment scripture, and after hearing him say ETH can reach $30,000 you go all-in and hold through thick and thin, then in the end you'll most likely become part of the "exit liquidity" behind his $49.24 million USDC.
When facing this man — the crypto world's most prolific essayist — the best defense is: don't look at what he says, look at what his wallet is actually doing on-chain.
