BTC Oversold Rebound Nearing Its End, HYPE Climbs Alone Within Its Channel | Special Analysis

Two weeks of sideways trading, and a direction is imminent. Since BTC hit a rebound high of $87,399 on September 21, it has been locked in a back-and-forth battle within the $82,500–$87,500 range. On October 4, the price reclaimed $85,500, and the probability of refreshing the Wave e high in the first half of this week is extremely high.

However, a new high is not necessarily a new starting point. Two proprietary quantitative models are about to form a resonance of topping signals, and $87,500–$90,000 may well be where Wave e ends. At this point, should you chase, or should you wait?

On the other side, HYPE pulled back to $84.92 as expected and then stabilized, with the upward channel still intact. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears at the channel's upper and lower rails remains this week's focal point.

In this week's review, we break it all down one by one.

Summary of this week's core trading views:

• BTC daily-level trend structure analysis (see Part One for details)

• BTC this week's market forecast and medium-/short-term trading strategy (see Part Two for details) 

• HYPE daily-level trend structure analysis (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE this week's market forecast and short-term trading strategy (see Part Four for details)

1. Bitcoin Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis

In last week's review, this column introduced the Elliott Wave framework to systematically break down and forecast the daily-level wave structure of BTC since its rebound from the July 1 low. At that time, we concluded: since the rebound began, the price has clearly traced out an a→e five-wave upward structure, with Wave e currently in progress and not yet complete.

This week, we continue with the prior analytical framework, examining the new changes in the existing five-wave upward structure after a week of market movement, with a focus on determining whether the Wave e rebound has already ended. With these questions in mind, we conduct another structural re-examination of the latest price action.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

1. Five-Wave Structure Breakdown: Wave e Still Ongoing (Figure 1)

①. Wave a to Wave d: July 1 to September 15

For detailed structural analysis, see the September 28 weekly review

②. Wave e (potential rebound wave): September 15 to present

•  Starting point: $74,955

•  19 trading days elapsed (still in progress)

•  Maximum gain within the range: 16.6%

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

2. Multi-Timeframe Analysis of Wave e

①. Daily level (Figure 1)

•  After BTC hit a new high of $87,399 within Wave e on September 21, the price has maintained strong consolidation within the $82,500–$87,500 range.

•  The proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" currently shows a topping钝化 (blunting) state (this signal is a necessary precondition for forming a bearish divergence);

•  The proprietary "Spread Trading Model" issued consecutive topping warning signals around September 21, after which the price retraced approximately $5,000 (the signal temporarily disappeared). Currently, this model's indicator remains at elevated levels. If the price rises again, the topping warning signal could be re-triggered at any time.

②. 4-hour level (Figure 2)

•  Since the price hit the Wave e rebound high on September 21, using $85,500 as the midline, we can divide the $82,500–$87,500 range into upper and lower boxes: the lower box at $82,500–$85,500 and the upper box at $85,500–$87,500. Since September 21, the price has spent most of its time oscillating narrowly within the lower box.

•  On October 2, the price briefly surged on increased volume, breaking out of the lower box and launching an assault toward the upper edge of the range ($87,500). However, it ultimately failed to hold and fell back into the lower box. That day recorded a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, accompanied by increased volume — this candlestick can be viewed as a "immortal guiding the way" pattern.

•  On October 4, the price once again broke above the upper rail of the lower box and pushed toward the upper edge of the range ($87,500), ultimately closing with a bullish candle gaining 2.09% and successfully holding the lower rail of the upper box ($85,500).

③. In summary, the probability of the price breaking above the September 21 high and refreshing the Wave e rebound high in the first half of this week is extremely high. But at this point, a reminder: the "Spread Trading Model" will once again trigger a topping warning signal and form a signal resonance with the "Momentum Quantitative Model"; the upward rebound space for the price is limited, and the Wave e termination point could be established at any time. Therefore, do not chase this rally — be wary of high-level correction risks.

3. Conditions for Determining Wave e Termination

①. In the first half of the week, if the price continues its惯性 upward push and refreshes the prior high (September 21 high), the market will likely confirm the Wave e rebound endpoint in the key resistance zone of $87,500–$90,000 and subsequently transition into a daily-level correction.

②. If the price spikes and falls back, fails to refresh the prior high (September 21 high), and further probes downward to effectively break below the $80,500–$82,500 support zone, then the September 21 high is the Wave e termination point, meaning the oversold rebound that started from the prior low of $57,820 has likely concluded;

2. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC This Week's Price Action Forecast

Core view for this week: Focus on the offensive and defensive battle between bulls and bears near the upper and lower rails of the $82,500–$87,500 range; key focus on how the Wave e rebound terminates. 

2. Core Resistance Levels

   • First resistance zone: $87,500–$90,000 area (prior important level)  

   • Second resistance zone: around $93,000 (prior important resistance zone)

3. Core Support Levels

   • First support level: $80,500–$82,500 area  (prior important support level)  

   • Second support level: $73,500–$75,000 area  (prior important support level)       

   • Third support level: $67,300–$69,100 area  (prior important support level)                                     

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact of Breaking News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the price has broken out of the "Long/Short Channel" but has not yet entered the pullback confirmation phase. Therefore, the current medium-term strategy is to stay in cash and observe.

②. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operating timeframe).

③. In short-term operations, to dynamically adapt to complex market developments, we pre-draft A/B operation plans.

• Plan A: Light short position in strong resistance zone.

   • Entry: If early this week the price rises to the $87,500–$90,000 area, shows clear resistance and pullback patterns, and quantitative models simultaneously issue topping signals, a short position of approximately 30% can be established.

   • Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

   • Exit: When the correction reaches important support levels and combines with model signals, positions can be closed in batches to take profit.

• Plan B: Short along the trend after an effective breakdown.

   • Entry: If the price probes downward and effectively breaks below the $80,500–$82,500 support zone, those without positions can establish a short position of approximately 30%.

   • Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

   • Exit: As the price corrects further to near important support levels and combines with model signals, positions can be closed in batches to take profit.

3. HYPE Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis

Figure 4: HYPE Daily Candlestick Chart

1. Market Validation of Last Week's HYPE Analysis

As shown in Figure 4, in last week's review we clearly pointed out: the price action at that time should be defined as the pullback confirmation phase after breaking above the prior high of $89.69. If the price effectively broke below the $89.69 support line during this period, it would likely further probe toward the $85 area for support. Looking back at last week's market performance, the price reached a low of $84.92, found support, stabilized, and then launched a rebound. The actual market development was highly consistent with our prior analysis, and the earlier view was effectively validated by the price action.

2. Current Trend Structure Analysis (Figure 4)

①. On the daily chart, since HYPE launched this round of upward movement from the August 2 low of $51.11, the price structure has exhibited clear characteristics of an ascending channel. The lower rail of this channel is formed by connecting the two lows of August 12 and September 15; the upper rail is defined by connecting the two highs of August 22 and September 22.

②. From the daily-level observation, last week's correction low of $84.92 landed恰好 near the channel's lower rail, indicating that this lower rail support is effective. The current price is oscillating upward依托 the lower rail support.

③. If the price effectively breaks above the channel's upper rail, it will further open up upside space; if it effectively breaks below the channel's lower rail, the daily-level correction period will be correspondingly extended, but the long-term uptrend structure has not yet been damaged.

4. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE This Week's Price Action Forecast

①. Core Resistance Levels:

• First resistance level: $92–$94 area

• Second resistance level: around $102

• Third resistance level: around $110

②. Core Support Levels:

• First support level: $84–$85 area;

• Second support level: $76–$77 area;

③. This Week's Core View:

The current price is moving within the channel. Focus on observing the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears near the channel's upper and lower rails.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy

①. Hold long positions established at support levels and wait for further gains.

If you have already established long positions near the $85 support level according to the prior trading plan, you can hold and wait for gains, and set a stop-loss and strictly execute it.

②. Light long position on effective breakout above resistance.

If the price effectively breaks above and holds the $92–$94 resistance zone, those without positions can consider a light long position. Position size should be controlled within 30%, and a stop-loss should be set and strictly executed.

5. Special Notes

 1. When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.

 2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.

 3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

 4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% gain, move the stop-loss by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analyses and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading journal purposes only. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets carry risks, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this article.