BTC consolidates at highs as it digests profit-taking, HYPE hits a new all-time high to extend its long-term bull run | Exclusive Analysis

Last week, the Fed's interest rate decision landed as scheduled, and BTC completed a round of "accumulation first, breakout later" between $74,950 and $81,950, closely matching the "Path Two" we had previously outlined. Following our plan, we established long positions at the multi-factor resonance point after the decision news landed, and decisively closed out near the $82,850 resistance zone when momentum stalled and a top resonance signal appeared, capturing a short-term gain of about 4.76%.

Meanwhile, HYPE rebounded strongly after touching a low near $75, hitting a new all-time high of $94.52 on September 19. Our earlier judgment that "a correction would unfold after the daily uptrend segment ended" was also fully validated during the pullback.

Entering this week, both assets are at critical positions: BTC is approaching the upper bound of its box range at $82,850, while HYPE has entered a deeply overbought zone near its all-time high. Our "Spread Trading Model" has successively triggered top warning signals, and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" has simultaneously shown top divergence. The closer prices get to highs, the more restraint is needed—avoid chasing the rally.

This week, we will introduce Chan Theory analysis for the first time, systematically breaking down the daily-level trend structure of BTC and HYPE, focusing on tracking the termination nodes of BTC's (6-7) upward segment and HYPE's (16-17) upward segment, and providing medium- and short-term trading plans combined with support and resistance levels.

Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views:

• BTC daily-level trend structure analysis (see Part One for details)

• BTC this week's market forecast and medium- and short-term trading strategies (see Part Two for details) 

• HYPE daily-level trend structure analysis (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE this week's market forecast and short-term trading strategies (see Part Four for details)

Last Week's Trading Strategy Market Validation:

• BTC short-term trading results: Last week, we completed a short-term long position operation (1x leverage) based on our plan, successfully achieving a gain of about 4.76%. (See Part Five for details)

1. Bitcoin Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis

In the previous weekly review, based on the moving average analysis framework, we clearly defined the trend structure of BTC after it recorded this round's rebound high of $82,300 on September 3 (the rebound began on July 1): the price maintained a high-level box consolidation pattern in the short term, with the upper bound at $82,850 and the lower bound near $75,500, forming a second daily-level upward pivot during the same period. Combined with the key time window of the Fed's interest rate decision on September 17 Beijing time, the previous weekly review outlined two evolution paths for last week's trend and formulated corresponding short-term trading plans accordingly. From actual price action validation, last week's low reached near $74,950, and the high touched $81,950, highly consistent with the "Path Two" scenario (see the September 14 weekly review for detailed scenario analysis).

This week, we will introduce the Chan Theory analysis framework to further break down and forecast the current daily-level trend structure.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

1. Overall Framework

As shown in (Figure 1): Since BTC rebounded from the July 1 low, it has clearly formed a seven-segment upward structure from (0-1) to (6-7), and is currently in the process of forming the (6-7) upward segment.

2. Structural Analysis Based on Pivot A:

Based on the overlap of the three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the first daily-level upward pivot (Pivot A) has been completed. Among them, (0-1) is the pivot entry segment, and (4-5) is the pivot exit segment. Comparing the upward momentum of Pivot A's entry and exit segments, the exit segment is clearly stronger than the entry segment. Based on this, the probability of forming a second upward pivot from "Endpoint 5" after the exit segment terminates is extremely high.

3. Daily Chart Maintains High-Level Consolidation, Forming a Second Potential Upward Pivot

Since "Endpoint 5," the (5-6) downward segment has formed, and the (6-7) upward segment is currently being constructed. As of now, this segment has approached the upper bound of the box at $82,850; after a short-term consecutive rally, multiple technical indicators are in overbought territory; our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" has triggered top warning signals (yellow-white dots), and simultaneously, the "Momentum Quantitative Model" is in a state of top divergence (this state is a prerequisite for forming a momentum top divergence). Therefore, at the current position, chasing the rally is inadvisable; one should be alert to short-term correction risks and monitor potential downward segments that may form during the same period.

2. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Strategies

1. BTC This Week's Trend Forecast

Core view for this week: Focus on the termination node of the (6-7) upward segment, and simultaneously track the construction of potential subsequent downward segments. 

2. Core Resistance Levels

   • First resistance zone: Near $82,850 (previous important level)  

   • Second resistance zone: $84,500–$86,500 area (previous important resistance zone)  

   • Third resistance zone: $90,000 area (key psychological level)

3. Core Support Levels

   • First support level: $79,500–$80,500 area  (previous important support level)  

   • Second support level: $73,500–$75,000 area  (previous important support level)       

   • Third support level: $67,300–$69,100 area  (previous important support level)                                     

4. This Week's Trading Strategies (Excluding Sudden News Impact)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Figure 2: Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 2), the price has broken through the "Long-Short Channel," but has not yet entered the pullback confirmation phase. Therefore, the current medium-term strategy is to stay in cash and observe.

②. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operating timeframe).

③. In short-term operations, to dynamically adapt to complex market evolution, we have prepared two sets of operation plans, A/B, in advance.

• Plan A: Light short position in strong resistance zone.

   • Entry: If the price rises to the $82,850–$84,500 area, shows a clear bearish reversal pattern under pressure, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a top signal, a short position of about 30% can be established.

   • Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

   • Exit: When the price adjusts to an important support level and combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.

• Plan B: Light long position in strong support zone.

   • Entry: If the price falls back to the above key support levels, shows a clear stabilization pattern, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom signal, a long position of about 30% can be established.

   • Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

   • Exit: When the price rebounds to an important resistance level and combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.

3. HYPE Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis

In the previous weekly review, we introduced the Chan Theory analysis framework and analyzed the daily (14-15) upward segment on the 4-hour chart: The daily-level uptrend that began from "Endpoint 14" (August 2 low of $51.11) was confirmed to have terminated at "Endpoint 15" (September 6 high of $89.76), and a correction was expected to follow. Last week's actual price action showed: in the daily-level (15-16) downward segment, the price corrected from the $89.76 high to a low of $75.10, with a maximum drawdown of 16.33%. The previous judgment has been fully validated by the market.

This week, we will analyze the current trend structure from the daily level.

Figure 3: HYPE Daily Candlestick Chart

1. Uptrend Continuation

As shown in (Figure 3): After HYPE stabilized near "Low 16" (September 15 low of $75.18), it launched the daily (16-17) upward segment; this segment hit a new all-time high of $94.52 on September 19, and the upward structure has not yet been confirmed as terminated. The emergence of a new high confirms that the current uptrend that began from the January 21 low of $20.46 is still continuing.

2. After New Price High, Indicators Enter Deeply Overbought Territory

As shown in (Figure 3), near the high of $94.52, our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" has consecutively triggered top warning signals (yellow-white dots + green dots); simultaneously, the "Momentum Quantitative Model" has entered a state of top divergence. Therefore, the current price has entered a deeply overbought zone, and upside potential at this position is limited. In terms of operations, avoid chasing the rally and be alert to high-level correction risks.

3. Trend Analysis After the Upward Segment Terminates

After the upward segment (16-17) is confirmed to have terminated, the market may shift into a high-level consolidation pattern. If, during the pullback, the price effectively breaks below the key support near $90, there is a possibility of further probing the support near $85, or even seeking support near $77 again.

4. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategies

1. HYPE This Week's Trend Forecast

①. Core resistance levels:

• First resistance level: Near $100

②. Core support levels:

• First support level: Near $90;

• Second support level: $84–$85 area;

• Third support level: $76–$77 area;

③. Core view for this week: Focus on the termination point of the rebound segment (16-17), and the potential subsequent correction magnitude.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategies

Stabilization at key support, light long position.

If the price encounters resistance and begins to pull back. When the price adjusts to the above key support levels and shows stabilization signals, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom buy signal, consider establishing a light long position.

5. Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Review

We strictly followed our trading plan and, based on the trading signals issued by our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," completed one short-term (long) operation last week, with a total trading profit of approximately 4.76%.

1. Short-Term Trading Record: (See Table 1)

Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Details Summary: (Leverage * 1x)

​Table 1

2. Short-Term Trading Review: (See Figure 4)

Entry strategy:

①. Before and after the Fed's interest rate decision was announced, the price maintained a range-bound oscillation between $74,950 and $77,346. After the news landed, the market digested it briefly, and the price broke strongly above the upper bound of the box and continued upward.

②. During the same period, the "Momentum Quantitative Model" dual signal lines formed a golden cross in the bullish zone, and the "Spread Trading Model" simultaneously issued a bullish signal.

Based on the above multi-factor resonance, a 30% long position was established at $77,600.

Exit strategy:

①. The price rose to near $82,850 and showed momentum stalling; the candlestick formed a "top fractal" pattern;

②. The "Spread Trading Model" consecutively released top warning signals (yellow-white dots + green dots), then the signal band (blue) crossed below the skyline (green), forming a top resonance with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Based on the above top resonance signals, the entire position was closed at $81,294.

Summary: This trade achieved a profit of approximately 4.76%.

3. Short-Term Trading Illustration

Figure 4: BTC_60-Minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Notes

 1. When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.

 2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.

 3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

 4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are ever-changing, and all market analyses and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading journal purposes only. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets carry risks, invest with caution, and do not make decisions based solely on this content.