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A Conversation with Wall Street Analyst Tom Lee: The Corporate Treasury Model Outperforms Traditional ETFs, and Ethereum Will Experience Bitcoin-Like Explosive Growth
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特邀专栏作者
7hours ago
This article is about 4448 words, reading the full article takes about 7 minutes
Tom Lee predicts that the price of ETH will have a chance to reach the range of $7,000 to $15,000 by the end of the year.

The World's Largest ETH Holder - Tom Lee on Treasuries, Ethereum Dominance, and Wall Street

Guest: Tom Lee, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bitmine

Podcast Date: August 6, 2025

Compiled by: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor's Note:

Ethereum may be ushering in its own "sovereign narrative moment."

In just one month, Bitmine purchased 830,000 ETH, nearly 1% of the global supply. While most institutions were still waiting, it became the world's largest ETH treasury. This wasn't just a bet on asset prices, but also a strategic position in the future of financial infrastructure.

This interview with Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee provides an in-depth analysis of Bitmine's ambitious vision and meticulous execution, exploring Ethereum's key role in financialization, compliant staking, and the AI era. This is not only an insight into digital asset allocation, but also a forward-looking interpretation of the next round of institutional cycles and financial ecosystem transformation.

The following is the conversation, compiled and organized by ChainCatcher.

Host: Bitmine currently holds 833,000 ETH, representing nearly 1% of the global ETH supply, making it the world's largest publicly listed ETH treasury. How does that feel?

Tom Lee: The pace was indeed fast. From the announcement on June 30th to the completion on July 8th, we rapidly acquired a large amount of ETH within 27 days. MicroStrategy has proven the success of the treasury strategy, with its stock price soaring from $13 in August 2020 to its current level, a 30-fold increase. Bitcoin's rise from $11,000 to $120,000 alone has generated a 20-fold return from asset appreciation.

I believe Ethereum is a major macro trade for the next decade, and we want to hold as much as possible while the price of ETH is still around $3,500 to welcome explosive growth similar to that of Bitcoin over the past five years.

Host: After Bitmine announced its ETH treasury strategy, other companies like Joe Lubin's SBET and Sharpling Gaming quickly followed suit, announcing similar plans around the same time. Why did these ETH treasury companies emerge within a single two-week period?

Tom Lee: Perhaps it’s “great minds think alike.” Sharpling was the first company to announce a treasury strategy, making its plans public as early as May, while we were a little later.

There are several reasons why Ethereum is suitable as a treasury asset:

  • First, if you are bullish on the long-term value of ETH, a treasury strategy is more attractive than an ETF because you can buy continuously and hold for the long term.
  • Secondly, Ethereum is based on Proof of Stake (PoS), which allows for native returns of over 3% through staking, essentially giving these companies a stable source of income like infrastructure operators.
  • Ultimately, scarcity is key. Bitmine's goal is to hold 5% of the total ETH supply. We have a very clean balance sheet, with $1.6 billion in daily trading volume, making us the 42nd most liquid stock in the US stock market, comparable to Uber. Yet, our market capitalization is only $4 billion, far less than Uber's $184 billion.

Host: You mentioned that Bitmine's goal is to hold 5% of the ETH supply. Do you really plan to reach 5%? What is the execution path?

Tom Lee: MicroStrategy's goal of holding 1 million Bitcoins, approximately 5% of the supply, can be considered a "sovereign call option" and is strategically significant to the ecosystem. If the US government were to build a Bitcoin reserve, direct market purchases would drive up the price, potentially even pushing Bitcoin to $1 million. MicroStrategy, with its large Bitcoin holdings, would be an easier acquisition target.

A similar logic applies to ETH. Bitmine currently adds 8,000 to 10,000 ETH per day, a rate 12 times that of MicroStrategy. If we maintain the current pace, we could reach our 5% target within 1-2 years.

Our operations are conducted entirely within the United States and strictly adhere to U.S. laws and regulatory frameworks. Ethereum is currently the most compliant blockchain, meeting the infrastructure requirements of Wall Street and governments. With the rise of asset tokenization, the financialization of ETH will continue to grow. Just as gamers buy Nvidia stock, Wall Street will also need to hold ETH and ensure its collateral compliance.

Host: If Wall Street and AI both turn to Ethereum, is it possible to have a scenario similar to a “sovereign call option”?

Tom Lee: It is not impossible, but we are not building a position simply for this kind of "sovereign option".

Imagine a future where the US passes legislation (such as the hypothetical Genius Act) to push the financial system onto blockchains. Ethereum would become the most important underlying blockchain for compliance, supporting not only the US but also potentially being adopted by other countries. In this context, the US would naturally want to have a certain degree of dominance on Ethereum.

Furthermore, AI and asset tokenization place extremely high demands on the security of the underlying blockchain. Bitmine, with its clean balance sheet and compliant operating model, will play a key role in areas like staking. We will soon announce our staking plan, which will strictly adhere to US GAAP and all regulatory requirements.

The ETH Treasury Company is not only an asset holder, but also a builder of new financial infrastructure, and will bring in staking income and other business models in the future.

Host: Bitmine bought $3 billion worth of ETH in just one month, but the price of ETH still hasn't broken through $4,000. Where did all this ETH come from? Why hasn't the market fluctuated significantly?

Tom Lee: In the short term, ETH prices are impacted by a variety of factors, including liquidation structures, trade hedging, and even some who still believe Ethereum is a "dead chain" and are shorting it. A similar situation occurred with Bitcoin in 2017, when the price hovered around $1,000 before experiencing a significant surge. I believe ETH is currently at a similar stage, with Wall Street just beginning to truly pay attention. Over the long term, ETH's fair value is significantly higher than its current level.

Host: Why choose ETH Treasury Company instead of Bitcoin or other asset treasury companies?

Tom Lee: I'm very bullish on Bitcoin and believe it has the potential to reach $1 million or even $1.5 million. However, the two have different positioning: Bitcoin is digital gold, focusing on value storage, while Ethereum is a foundational blockchain for finance and AI, with more platform attributes.

For many US institutions, an ETH ETF may not meet the fund's investment parameters, and Treasury offers a compliant and efficient alternative. Well-known institutions such as Cathie Wood and Bill Miller support Bitmine precisely because it allows them to directly participate in ETH's macro opportunities.

In addition, Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem brings more tools to treasury strategies, such as further increasing holdings through staking or on-chain income strategies, which is not possible with Bitcoin for the time being.

Host: Where does the MNAV (market net asset value) premium come from? Why does it exist?

Tom Lee: The MNAV premium mainly comes from three aspects: earnings, growth rate and liquidity.

Taking Bitmine as an example, let's assume that the market views us as an ETF, with a corresponding valuation of 1x NAV. However, we earn an annualized 3% return on ETH staked, equivalent to net profit. Based on a 20x P/E ratio, this alone results in a 0.6x valuation increase, for a total of 1.6x NAV.

Second, there's the "speed premium." Our ETH price has grown from $4 per share to $23, far exceeding MicroStrategy's pace of growth. MicroStrategy increases its Bitcoin holdings by approximately $0.16 per day, earning a 0.6x NAV premium. We increase our holdings by $0.80-1 per day, nearly 12x faster, theoretically resulting in a higher premium.

The next factor is liquidity. Our stock's daily trading volume reaches $1.6 billion, second only to MicroStrategy. This high liquidity naturally brings a valuation premium.

Host: Can this growth rate be sustained? Where will the liquidity come from?

Tom Lee: High liquidity supports high speed. Our team and investor background are key: Mosaics (a macro hedge fund) led the investment, attracting top institutions such as Founders Fund and Stan Druckenmiller. Furthermore, my long-term public support for the crypto industry since 2017 has reinforced the market's confidence in our vision.

In 2017, Bitcoin transitioned from a retail to an institutional asset; in 2025, Ethereum is experiencing a similar moment.

Host: You mentioned the turning point of Bitcoin in 2017. How does it compare to the current situation of Ethereum?

Tom Lee: Our research at Fundstrat in 2017 found that Bitcoin's price surge from $100 to $1,000 was primarily driven by the number of wallets and activity, demonstrating a strong network effect. At the time, institutions had little involvement, and we were questioned and even lost clients, yet Bitcoin ultimately reached $120,000.

Ethereum is in a similar situation today: many on Wall Street remain skeptical, questioning whether it is a “main chain.” However, the reality is that Ethereum has experienced zero downtime for 10 consecutive years, with on-chain activity reaching record highs. Circle’s IPO, Coinbase, and Robinhood’s Layer 2 solutions are all built on Ethereum.

Wall Street is beginning to realize that Ethereum is becoming the core infrastructure for financialization and tokenization.

Host: What do you think about the price of ETH this year or in this cycle?

Tom Lee: In the short term, ETH should at least return to the $4,000 level of last December. Based on the ETH/BTC ratio of 0.05 at the time, and at the current Bitcoin price, ETH should be around $6,000. If we consider macroeconomic factors like continued purchases by other treasury companies and the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut, ETH has a chance of reaching the $7,000 to $15,000 range by the end of the year.

In the long term, Bitcoin has achieved a hundredfold growth. As a core asset in the era of financialization and AI, ETH may have even greater potential in the future and may even surpass Bitcoin.

Host: How to value ETH? Based on transaction fees, DeFi storage value or staking requirements?

Tom Lee: It's difficult to accurately predict the fair price of ETH using a spreadsheet, just like you can't accurately predict the long-term trend of Bitcoin or the S&P 500. Market pricing reflects expectations for the next 5 to 10 years rather than current trading data.

ETH is currently severely undervalued. While analogies like "digital gold" for Bitcoin and "digital oil" for Ethereum are valuable, we shouldn't be bound by these models.

Host: Will the ETH Treasury Company overheat? Is there a risk of a bubble burst similar to the investment trust or GBTC bubble in the 1920s?

Tom Lee: The premise of a bubble is a consensus bullish market. However, currently, whether it's ETH or Bitcoin, the prevailing sentiment remains cautious or even pessimistic. As long as treasury companies don't abuse leverage, especially by adopting compliant debt structures like MicroStrategy, they won't pose systemic risks.

At this stage, the market is more like "over-skepticism" rather than "over-optimism", which is the soil for price increases.

Host: What are you worried about in terms of macroeconomics?

Tom Lee: I am concerned about the politicization of institutions, especially the independence of the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, the overall economy is actually strong, even though many institutional clients mistakenly believe that we are in a recession.

For the past 30 years, no one has accurately predicted a recession. Businesses are generally cautious now, with the ISM index below 50 for 29 consecutive months. Events like these "tariff shocks" are restoring market confidence and helping to curb overheating. I believe we are still mid-cycle, if not early-cycle.

Host: What is Wall Street’s biggest misunderstanding about Ethereum?

Tom Lee: They rely too much on spreadsheets and focus on details like gas fees and stablecoin transaction volumes, and end up falling into "analysis paralysis."

The real problem isn't what the model says, but a lack of strategic perspective. Ethereum's value as a compliant blockchain is growing, much like the undervalued S&P 500. It will become the infrastructure of the financialization and AI eras, yet its current market price is far below its true potential.

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