Analyst: New Bitcoin investors' loss ratio rises to 73%, this correction is a "disastrous opening"

Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Murphy stated that over the past 12 years, Bitcoin may have never seen such an extreme market trend. Data shows that the overall loss ratio among new investors (STH-PSIL) has risen to 73%. By comparison, in the previous bear market, against the backdrop of rate hikes and traditional bank collapses, this metric stood at 51% during the first pullback and only rose to 67% during the second.

Murphy noted that the current cycle bears some similarity to the market opening from 2019 to 2020. At that time, Bitcoin's first pullback pushed STH-PSIL as high as 97%, but that was accompanied by the black swan of the global pandemic spreading. In contrast, this cycle has not yet seen a similar major external shock—only more traces of "artificial intervention."

However, Murphy said there is no need to be overly pessimistic at present. He remains confident in Bitcoin's short- to medium-term trajectory and has no intention of selling his holdings. But he also cautioned that this decline has severely damaged investor confidence, and repairing market sentiment may take a long time. A large amount of trapped positions at higher levels will continue to create selling pressure during subsequent rebounds. Similar to what the market experienced in 2019, this cycle may also need a longer period to truly emerge from the trough.