Kalshi and Polymarket Both Predict Democrats Are Poised to Sweep the 2026 Midterm Elections

Odaily Report: Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi both favor the Democrats to win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Polymarket assigns a 78% probability, with related market trading volume exceeding $58 million; Kalshi assigns a 74% probability, with related contract trading volume exceeding $100 million.

Individual Senate race markets on both platforms also favor Democratic candidates: James Talarico has a 74% to 76% chance of winning in Texas, Troy Jackson stands at 73% in Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed at 78% in Michigan. Traditional polling also suggests Democrats may be heading for a "blue wave."

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said this election cycle is the first prediction-market election, with related betting volume already exceeding $1.4 billion. However, the platform previously failed to predict Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the runoff, and its impact on voter behavior and election credibility has also drawn attention. (Bitcoin.com News)