If authorities intervene in the market again after September 18, watch the speed at which the move retraces—should the yen quickly fall back to its pre-intervention range within days or weeks, it would suggest that policy signals alone remain insufficient to overturn fundamental pricing, and the yen will likely continue spinning in the cycle of "intervention, rebound, and give-back."

September's seasonal pressure coincides with elevated valuations, but with inflation and debt continuing to expand, US equities still lack more attractive alternative assets.

The nature of this round of rebound is closer to a phased repair of expectations. The Fed has not released any signals about starting a rate-cutting cycle, and the overall monetary policy stance remains tight. Before the August CPI data is released, there is still considerable uncertainty in the direction of overseas markets, with implied volatility at relatively high levels. The risks of short-term volatility and pullbacks should not be underestimated.

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and oil prices continue to climb, inflation expectations could shift to a higher plateau, driving long-end yields and rate hike expectations higher in tandem. What may demand the most caution then is not just a one-way decline in equities, but a stagflationary drawdown involving simultaneous losses in both stocks and bonds.

The "Small Non-Farm" slightly pressed down the September rate hike probability from its highs, but the 62.3% figure means the market is still pricing in a better-than-even chance that a hike will come. If Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls far exceeds the expected 55,000, the just-repaired sentiment could easily reverse once again.

SpaceX's current valuation already factors in high-growth expectations across multiple business lines, including Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As share supply increases, the "scarcity premium" will be gradually diluted. Going forward, whether the stock can continue to rise will no longer depend on "can't buy it," but rather on the pace of fundamental delivery, and whether institutional capital can keep absorbing the new supply of shares.

OpenAI snapping up Mac minis and Nvidia naming Apple its top local AI rival are clear signals that Apple has always held a ticket to the AI era.

Companies added to the S&P 500 index already exhibit stronger momentum before their inclusion. The gains seen after inclusion are, to a large extent, a continuation of this "strong stay strong" momentum, rather than the index constituents themselves creating value out of thin air.

For investors, rather than betting on whether the hawkish stance is real or not, it's wiser to watch something more honest—nonfarm payrolls and CPI. Rhetoric can manage expectations, but data won't play along with the performance. Before September, every sharp market swing will likely revolve around these two reports.

SK海力士、三星和美光的HBM定价直接影响英伟达的产品成本。HBM价格若出现任何软化，都将直接利好英伟达毛利率——同时对当前受益于高定价的内存公司形成负面影响。

Trading volume is rapidly recovering, and the options market is turning bullish—Bitcoin is entering a critical breakout window

Is dollar depreciation a long-term narrative? Then it makes sense to allocate some gold and Bitcoin as long-term hedges—both assets have recently surged over 10% and 20% respectively, showing the market is voting with real money.

"The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the ability to understand them at the right time and in the right way."

Gold and Bitcoin are being bought up simultaneously, indicating that a significant portion of capital has already begun preparing for a new world order.

The intersection of these two reassessments is this Friday’s Jackson Hole. A single statement from Waller could simultaneously determine the valuation anchor for AI stocks and the interest rate anchor for U.S. Treasuries.