Jensen Huang's Latest Interview: The Chip Industry Still Needs to Expand 5 to 10 Times, Chinese Models Benefit Everyone

1. Compiled & Translated by: TechFlow (Shenchao)
2. 
3. Program: Axios Behind the Curtain
4. Guest: Jensen Huang, Co-founder and CEO of NVIDIA
5. Duration: 70 minutes
6. Location: NVIDIA Factory in Fort Worth, Texas
7. Conflict of Interest Disclosure: Jensen Huang is the CEO and Co-founder of NVIDIA, holding approximately 3.5% of the company's shares, with a personal fortune of about $181 billion. This conversation covers topics such as AI industry expansion, chip demand, and Chinese government regulation, all directly related to his personal financial interests. His stance clearly favors promoting AI industry expansion and reducing regulation.

Summary

The CEO of the world's most valuable company, seated in his newly built Texas factory, addressed nearly every hotly contested issue in the AI industry head-on. Huang straightforwardly stated: Wall Street's panic over Chinese AI models is a misunderstanding, AI doomsday theories are "bullshit," the chip industry needs to expand 5 to 10 times in the next decade, and a bubble is unlikely within five years. He also publicly stated that Anthropic's Mythos model should be open to everyone, and that OpenAI and Anthropic will be "the most successful IPOs in human history." Regarding Trump, he said the President has an excellent memory, capable of recalling chip model names like H20, H200, Blackwell, and Rubin. His only concern was that the government might be misled by "science fiction narratives" into over-regulating.

Key Quotes

"The market misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek, and now it's misunderstanding Kimi. Great models lead to more usage. More usage means selling more Nvidia computers and building more data centers. Starting point: good models bring good applications, and good applications bring growth."

"Saying AI will destroy humanity is pure bullshit. Saying AI will eliminate half of American jobs is pure bullshit. All facts and evidence point to the contrary."

"China has more AI researchers than the rest of the world combined. China will become extraordinary in this field; it is destined. Trying to stop China? It's a foolish idea and simply impossible."

"The semiconductor industry needs to expand 5 to 10 times. Today, everything is in short supply: chips, memory, land, electricity, and construction workers. This shortage is actually a good thing; it gives us time to build the infrastructure."

"OpenAI and Anthropic will be the most successful IPOs in human history. How can a company founded just a few years ago be worth a trillion dollars? Because AI is useful. If AI is useful, it can make money."

1. The China AI Shockwave: Wall Street Misunderstood Again

Host Mike Allen opened with the most sensitive topic: the FT reported that China is considering tightening export controls on AI models and semiconductors. Kimi, a new Chinese model, just caused Nvidia's stock to plummet, and chip stocks fell 18% in a month. What did Wall Street get wrong?

Huang's answer was crisp. He said the market made the same mistake when DeepSeek came out. "Good models lead to more usage. More usage means selling more Nvidia computers. Need to build more data centers, provide more services, and technology will penetrate more industries." He repeatedly emphasized this logic chain: good models lead to good applications, good applications lead to growth, and growth requires more computing power.

When asked whether Chinese models like Kimi should be banned, his response was equally direct: "Of course you should use them. It's smart." He explained that after downloading a model, you can fine-tune it, enhance it, and add guardrails. The model runs within a "harness," and the harness is within a "sandbox." The sandbox is secure, with privacy protection, security controls, and access controls. He compared it to an operating system: Linux is open-source, reviewed, tested, and hardened by millions worldwide, so we can trust it. The same principle applies to open-source AI models.

He also mentioned an easily overlooked point: open and closed models are not opposing forces. "The people most likely to upgrade to a good model like Anthropic or OpenAI are those already using AI." Free models lower the barrier to trying AI. Once users get hooked, they naturally want better services and will pay closed-model vendors. So, the more open-source models there are, the greater the opportunity for closed models.

When asked about NVIDIA's sales in China, Huang gave an answer many didn't expect: "Our sales in China today are approximately zero." He said he has already told investors not to expect any revenue from China. If the Chinese government and market welcome them back, it would be a "great honor," but until then, consider sales as zero.

2. Where the AI Doomsayers Go Wrong

This was the most confrontational part of the entire conversation. The host asked: Are some of your tech peers overstating the risks of AI?

Huang's response was unsparing. "It's okay to warn people. It's better to warn people with solutions. But fabricating facts is absolutely not okay." He then called out several popular AI fear narratives: "Saying AI will end humanity is pure bullshit. Saying AI will wipe out half of American jobs is pure bullshit. All facts and evidence point to the contrary."

He provided several specific examples to support his argument. The number of radiologists has increased by about 20% because, after AI automated scan analysis, doctors could see more patients. Since there are too many people needing care, more radiologists are needed instead of fewer. The number of paralegals has increased by about 10%, following the same logic. Manufacturing jobs have grown by about 50% in the past few years because AI data centers need to be built and chips need to be produced.

"Intuition and common sense tell you that AI will increase productivity, and increased productivity creates opportunities. Throughout history, technology has made society more efficient, creating more jobs, not fewer. If it weren't the case, the US should only have a hundred thousand jobs today."

He also pointed a finger at AI leaders. "Doomsayers spend too much time theorizing about sci-fi endings. Maybe it makes them look smart." When pressed on whether he meant certain AI company CEOs, he didn't deny it but said: "If your goal was to make the world aware of this technology's incredible capabilities, that goal has been achieved. We should spend our time on how to make the technology safe. That is the responsibility of technology leaders."

The host mentioned that Asia's attitude towards AI is completely different from America's; Huang is mobbed by fans asking for autographs there. His explanation was thought-provoking: "Maybe it's because the doomsayers spend too much time fabricating sci-fi endings." In Asia, people embrace AI as a tool and an opportunity, not as a threat to be feared.

3. The Chip Industry Needs to Expand 5 to 10 Times, a Bubble is Unlikely in Five Years

The host posed a pointed question: Every industrial revolution goes through a bubble. Where is the risk of a bubble in this generation?

Huang's answer was cautious but clear. "A bubble will come someday, but not today. We are at the very beginning of construction." He gave a timeframe: unlikely within five years, and between five and ten years, it depends on the situation. The reason lies in comprehensive supply-side constraints. "The industry can build faster now, but there aren't enough chips, enough memory, enough land, enough electricity, or enough construction workers. We are constrained in every direction, in every aspect."

This constraint is precisely a good thing, he said. "This constraint holds the system back, giving us ample time to build infrastructure." Demand is strong, but the ability to convert demand into productive supercomputers is delayed due to all these physical limitations. This pushes the point of oversupply further into the future.

More critically was his assessment of the semiconductor industry's overall scale. "I believe the semiconductor industry needs to expand 5 to 10 times." Over what timeframe? "Over the next decade." This means today's chip industry is still far too small to support the construction needs of AI infrastructure.

He explained why this cycle is different from past semiconductor cycles. "This time is different because it's not demand-driven, not seasonal, not consumer-driven. It's driven by industrial infrastructure." Just as the world needs energy, the internet, highways, and railways, it now needs a layer of AI intelligence infrastructure built on top of all existing infrastructure. This layer requires chips.

Regarding the risk of customers taking on debt to buy NVIDIA products, he said he wasn't too worried. "These are excellent companies. They generate a lot of cash." He specifically mentioned the startup of the AI profitability flywheel: AI is useful, so AI can make money. Coding agents are extremely profitable; they do useful work in high-paying jobs, and many companies are willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars annually to enhance their coding capabilities. "The flywheel is already spinning."

4. Token Economics: Smarter AI is More Valuable

This was the most technically in-depth part of the conversation. The host asked: What makes you confident that tokens will become increasingly profitable?

Huang's explanation was vivid. "A token is an embedding. It embeds knowledge and intelligence. This number is not static, like pi. The intelligence encoded in this number becomes smarter over time." As intelligence becomes smarter, it becomes more useful, more useful means more valuable, and more valuable means people are willing to pay more.

He compared the AI industry to the past software industry. The old software industry was "asset-light," so software companies had high gross margins. But the software industry in the AI era will become more "asset-heavy" because producing modern software requires machines like the supercomputer in front of him to generate intelligence. Every industry will become more capital-intensive, but the rewards are incredible intelligence, productivity, and growth.

"We are laying the foundation and building infrastructure. This is the largest-scale industrial infrastructure construction in human history."

Regarding doubts about whether AI has already peaked, his response was: "It's impossible to peak because AI's penetration into society and industry has just begun." He also mentioned that in the past six months alone, $300 billion has been poured into venture capital and startups in the US, creating new jobs and new companies.

5. Trump, Regulation, and Government Equity Stakes

Huang's assessment of Trump was surprisingly specific. "He's smart. He remembers everything. My god, he knows his numbers." He noted that Trump is the only president who can remember NVIDIA chip model names like H20, H200, and Blackwell, and even knows the next-generation product is called Rubin.

He recounted their first meeting: "He said he wanted to restore America's manufacturing capability, wanted to re-industrialize America, wanted a secure and resilient supply chain, wanted to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to America." He said the Fort Worth factory where they were sitting for the interview was a direct result of that conversation.

When asked what mistake the government should avoid, Huang showed rare anxiety. "I worry about over-regulation, over-correction." He said some companies want the government to help create regulations that favor them. "I think we should compete openly." He dismissed the comparison of the AI race to a 100-meter dash as "bullshit": "Whoever gets to the finish line first wins forever? That's bullshit. Ultimate victory depends on whether society uses the technology, not on who invented it. We didn't invent electricity, we didn't invent manufacturing, but America applied them faster and with more enthusiasm, and that's why America became what it is today."

The host pressed: If Trump called for an equity stake in Nvidia, what would you say? Huang's answer was clever: "Unnecessary. America already has equity in NVIDIA. We paid $10 billion in taxes last year, and we'll pay more this year. We create a lot of jobs and tax revenue. And don't forget, most Americans are in the stock market today. When the stock market rises, everyone benefits."

Regarding whether Anthropic's Mythos model should be open to everyone (currently only available to specific institutions), Huang's stance was very clear: "Of course it should be open to everyone." He said it is Anthropic's responsibility to ensure the technology is safe, just like with any software – find a vulnerability and fix it as soon as possible. He mentioned the Mythos jailbreak incident, saying, "Everything is fine. You and I are still here chatting."

On the issue of open-model companies distilling closed models and then reselling them, his attitude was balanced: "It depends on the terms of service. If the service provider is dissatisfied, they should contact that company. We have many traditional legal means to handle it." But he emphasized that AI learning from other sources is a fundamental characteristic of intelligence. "AI has to learn from something. The original AI also scraped all existing knowledge on the internet. Now AI generates more content than humans. In a few years, 99% of internet content will be AI-generated. You are constantly distilling the intelligence of other AIs anyway."

6. The Robotics ChatGPT Moment and the Era of Trillions of Agents

The host asked: When will the ChatGPT moment for robots arrive?

Huang gave a surprising answer: "The ChatGPT moment for robots has already arrived." He explained that the ChatGPT moment wasn't when AI became useful; when ChatGPT came out in 2022, it just felt "interesting and surprising." It took another four years to become truly useful. Robots are currently in that "interesting, surprising" phase. You can tell a robot, "Put the apple in the drawer," and it will reason out the task sequence, including opening the drawer first before placing the apple. "When you see a mechanical robot actually do these things for the first time, it opens up your imagination for the future of robotics."

Regarding when it will become useful, he provided a timeframe of "three to four years" and said, "I wouldn't be surprised."

Concerning the era of agents, he painted a stunning picture. Today, a billion people use computers, but most of the time the computer is idle. In the future, everyone will be assisted by a multitude of agents running on computers 24/7. "We will have 100 billion, a trillion agents running around the clock. Intelligent agents, less intelligent agents, specialized agents, super agents – all kinds of agents running 24/7. So the number of computers we need will grow dramatically."

7. The CEO's Kung Fu and Philosophy of Pain

The conversation ended by focusing on Huang personally. The host mentioned he founded NVIDIA at 30, and the company is now worth $5 trillion but has only 50,000 employees. He says it may only have 75,000 in ten years, aiming to be "as small as possible."

Huang defines the CEO's job as "strategy." "Strategy is about using limited resources as efficiently as possible to achieve a future vision." He said he started doing this job at 30 and is probably the longest-serving CEO in tech history. "This is my craft. This is my kung fu."

Regarding the theory that "pain and adversity are key to greatness," he corrected it, saying it's not about a specific painful event but more of a continuous state. "No great athlete became great by accident. It's about a lot of practice when no one is watching, a lot of failure, a