BIT Research: Bitcoin Approaches Key Support, April May See Directional Decision Period
- Core View: The current crypto market is in a fragile, macro-liquidity-driven transitional phase. Although Bitcoin has seen a slight rebound, its key support levels are being repeatedly tested, and short-term downside risks have not been eliminated. Investors should focus on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and position structures rather than relying on seasonal patterns.
- Key Factors:
- Bitcoin is testing the key support zone (around $65,000–$66,000) for the third time. Historical similar structures show that trend fragility has not improved; a break below could accelerate the decline.
- Market drivers have shifted to macro factors and liquidity. Rising oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, slowing stablecoin growth, and sensitivity to ETF fund flows are all putting pressure on Bitcoin.
- In April, market timing is more important than direction. Volatility is high at the beginning of the month, macro data and policy expectations are concentrated mid-month, and direction may become clearer after the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
- Despite the weak market, the current downturn may be approaching its later stages. As tax-related selling pressure subsides and policy expectations stabilize, the market environment is expected to see marginal improvement.
The current cryptocurrency market is in a critical transitional phase. After months of correction, Bitcoin has recently seen a slight rebound, retesting the key support zone it previously lost. However, overall, the foundation for market recovery remains unstable, and the trend is still fragile. Accumulating macro pressures, weakening marginal liquidity, and the approach of key policy events are changing the market's pricing logic. Entering April, while there are seasonal expectations for relative strength, historical performance has been notably divergent. Market movements are more likely to be driven by a combination of liquidity, positioning structure, and macro catalysts, rather than a simple repetition of past cycles.
Repeated Support Tests: Trend Fragility Remains Unresolved
Since entering a downtrend in October 2025, Bitcoin has tested the key support zone for the third time. Historically, similar structures often play out as follows: after losing support, the price rapidly declines, forms a temporary low, and attempts to establish new support, but the overall downtrend is not truly reversed. The market's return to a similar level indicates that the lower support is still undergoing repeated validation, with no significant improvement in trend fragility.
From a rhythm perspective, such low-level consolidation typically does not immediately confirm a directional shift. Instead, it requires a period of volatility before entering the next phase of movement. The current $65,000–$66,000 range has become a critical watershed. A decisive break below this level could push the market into another accelerated decline phase, potentially targeting even lower zones.
Liquidity and Macros Dominate: Rhythm Overrides Direction
April has historically been viewed as a relatively strong month, but data shows this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-bullish state, price action often shows phased divergence. This cycle, Bitcoin is entering the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before previous rallies, but the short-term rhythm remains cautious.
More crucially, the market's dominant drivers have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macro variables. Rising oil prices are boosting inflation expectations, reinforcing market judgments that central banks will maintain a hawkish stance, while also supporting the US dollar—factors historically negative for Bitcoin. Furthermore, slowing stablecoin growth and ETF flows' sensitivity to policy signals reflect that liquidity has not yet formed sustained upward momentum.
From a temporal structure perspective, the internal rhythm within April is also key: liquidity tends to be thin and volatility amplified early in the month; mid-month sees a dense release of macro data and policy expectations; only after the FOMC meeting concludes towards month-end might the market gradually find clearer direction. This means that, compared to simply predicting up or down, timing the rhythm will become a more critical trading variable.
Overall, Bitcoin remains in a relatively fragile stage, with short-term downward pressure not yet fully released. Under a baseline scenario, the market may continue its weak performance in the first half of April. If the key support zone is breached, the pace of decline could accelerate further. However, from a cycle positioning perspective, this weakening phase may be approaching its latter stages. As tax-related selling pressure gradually subsides and policy expectations stabilize, the market environment is expected to see marginal improvement. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to emerge gradually in mid-to-late April. For investors, the current phase is not suitable for relying on simple seasonal patterns. Instead, focus should be on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and positioning structure, waiting for clearer recovery signals to emerge while controlling risk.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.
