Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars (March 23–29, 2026)

1. Market Focus Interpretation

The core market driver last week was the sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict. As the Strait of Hormuz faced substantial threats, WTI crude oil prices surged nearly 17% during the week, breaking back above the $100 mark. This simultaneously triggered strong inflation expectations, leading to a rise in US Treasury yields and dealing a heavy blow to overvalued tech stocks. The US Dollar Index broke through the 100 level, capping gold's gains. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, experienced significant selling pressure, with weekly losses exceeding 6%. As the US-Iran conflict entered its fifth week with no signs of resolution, the selling wave continued. Last week's volatility and uncertainty indicators reflected the current macroeconomic tone. The VIX index closed at 31.05, its highest level since the war's outbreak; while CNN's Fear & Greed Index fell to "Extreme Fear," its lowest level since last November. Bond markets further adjusted their pricing, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.44% and the 30-year yield briefly surpassing 5% before retreating slightly below that level. This movement reflects the market's entrenched expectation of "higher for longer" interest rates. The market consensus now sees a minimal chance of a Fed rate cut before autumn, with about a 25% probability of a 25 basis point hike this year.

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 Crypto ETF Net Flows

Crypto ETF flows over the past week showed a clear "outflow first, recovery later" pattern: mid-week, sentiment deteriorated rapidly, with spot ETFs seeing a combined net outflow of approximately $500 million—about $296 million for BTC and $207 million for ETH. Selling pressure was concentrated on March 26-27, indicating clear institutional de-risking. Marginal inflows appeared over the weekend, ending the multi-day outflow streak. Overall, institutional capital remains cautious in its allocation amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

Over the past week, on-chain trading activity remained centered around macro asset volatility. Perp DEX TradFi trading volume rose to $17 billion; crude oil trading maintained the highest weight but continued to decline week-over-week, while gold's share increased again. TradFi perpetual trading volume on CEXs surged, with March 23rd setting a new all-time high. All sub-categories saw significant growth, with commodities and metals showing the highest week-over-week increases.

PAXG's market depth changes over the past week exhibited a "weak first, strong later, with tail-end volume expansion" structural characteristic. Early in the week, Delta was mostly negative, coupled with price retreating from highs, indicating net selling dominance and liquidity withdrawal. Subsequently, around March 23rd, a concentrated wave of selling pressure emerged, corresponding to a rapid price dip and creating a temporary liquidity vacuum. Depth structure improved significantly over the weekend, with Delta turning consistently positive and size expanding notably, suggesting capital began actively absorbing and pushing prices higher.

The number of TradFi asset categories expanded further last week. The total count of TradFi asset categories (counting only TradFi & CFD sections, excluding perpetual contracts) across three major CEXs increased from 598 to 619, a 3.5% week-over-week growth. Metals saw the most significant growth, rising from 22 to 31 items, a 40% week-over-week increase. Overall, only Gate saw an increase in TradFi asset category count last week.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 DEX Trading Cools, Meteora Remains Elevated

Trading activity shifted from last week's surge back to a cooling phase, with leading protocols generally declining. Weekly trading volumes for PancakeSwap and Uniswap both fell compared to the previous week, indicating overall convergence of spot trading demand across major chains. Solana saw divergence: Meteora remained at a high level slightly above $20 billion in trading volume, but marginal growth has slowed; Raydium's weekly volume fell by 50% week-over-week, the largest drop among top DEXs. Aerodrome, Humidifi, and Bisonfi also saw varying degrees of decline. Looking at the protocol side, PancakeSwap's Infinity architecture and Meteora's DLMM remain the strongest efficiency labels, but the market this week placed greater emphasis on deterministic liquidity.

3.2 Stablecoin Supply Consolidates at Highs, DAI Shows Resilience

No new external inflows appeared in the stablecoin sector this week, with overall supply consolidating at high levels. USDT remained almost flat compared to the previous week. USDC decreased by approximately $1.4 billion, and PYUSD also dropped by nearly $200 million, indicating a slight pullback in demand for payment and settlement-oriented stablecoins. Protocol-native stablecoins were relatively more stable, with DAI seeing slight growth and USDS maintaining high levels. USD1, USDe, and GHO experienced minor fluctuations, leaning towards structural reallocation. Circle continues to advance USDC + CCTP multi-chain expansion, but this week's data reflects an internal shift within stablecoins from payment/settlement towards resilience in DeFi scenarios.

3.3 LST Protocols Synchronize Pullback, ETH and SOL Both Decelerate

This week, both main narratives in the liquid staking sector—ETH and SOL—decelerated simultaneously. Affected by ETH's poor performance, ETH LST capital began阶段性 reducing positions, with Lido and Rocket Pool TVL both declining. Lido's V3 and EarnETH/EarnUSD vault expansions have broadened product boundaries, but short-term TVL is more influenced by market risk appetite and staked asset price volatility. The SOL side also faced pressure, with Jito and Sanctum Validator LSTs, among others, experiencing pullbacks. Overall, the week saw a decline in the sector's overall risk appetite.

3.4 Aave Loan Volume Pulls Back, Mantle Emerges as a Rare Market Absorbing Inflows

Aave's total loan balance saw a slight decline compared to the previous week. Both the Ethereum main market and Plasma saw decreases of approximately $100 million, indicating deleveraging signs in mainstream markets. Multi-chain expansion also temporarily slowed this week, with Base and Arbitrum同步 retreating. Mantle was a rare market showing counter-trend growth, with loan scale rising from $555 million to $574 million, becoming a structural highlight of the week. Ink also increased slightly from $289 million to $292 million, but the gain was limited. Aave is currently advancing its V4 Hub-and-Spoke model; the market is pricing in future cross-market liquidity efficiency, but current capital is prioritizing reducing overall leverage while allocating limited incremental funds to sub-markets with new narratives.

3.5 Divergence Persists in Aave's Three Core Asset Lending Rates

The average floating borrowing APR for USDC rose from 3.10% to 3.23%; demand for USD stablecoins did not weaken in sync with the total loan balance decline this week. In contrast, USDT fell from 3.10% to 3.02%, and WETH also slightly decreased from 2.25% to 2.23%. While compressing broad risk exposure, on-chain capital concentrated its borrowing demand more heavily on USDC this week. From a strategic perspective, this typically corresponds to institutions preferring USDC for liquidity management, collateral management, and neutral strategy turnover. Considering Aave's latest governance progress, the risk isolation and liquidity routing framework for V4 is becoming clearer. Future interest rate divergence between different assets is likely to become more frequent and better reflect genuine capital preferences.

3.6 Protocol Revenue Shifts from Transaction-Driven Back to Stock-Driven

Revenue for transaction-driven protocols cooled overall, while stablecoin issuers remained the most stable profit centers. Tether and Circle's weekly revenues remained within a high, stable range. In contrast, Hyperliquid's revenue fell from $14.3025 million to $12.6277 million, Pump's from $7.1452 million to $6.6905 million, and EdgeX's from $4.5534 million to $3.7969 million. The cooling of trading activity has already transmitted to the revenue side. Overall, this week's main theme for protocol revenue was whose income is less dependent on short-term trading volatility.

4. Derivatives Tracking

4.1 Funding Rates Shift to Short-Term Bullish, Sentiment Switches to Tentative Longing

BTC funding rates overall showed a pattern of recovery, briefly turning positive, then fluctuating again. The previously long-standing bear-dominated structure with deeply negative funding rates has significantly eased. Funding rates turned positive mid-week and remained so for several days (peaking near +0.005%), with the market shifting to active long testing and short-term risk appetite recovering, resonating to some extent with the阶段性 price rebound. However, this positive funding rate phase was short-lived and limited in intensity, failing to form a trend-positive premium structure.

4.2 Open Interest Peaks, Retreats, Then Consolidates; Leveraged Capital Turns Cautious

Over the past week, BTC open interest initially expanded to a阶段性 high alongside rising prices but then rapidly declined to around $21B as prices fell, indicating clear market deleveraging. Subsequently, open interest failed to return to previous highs, instead consolidating and recovering within the $21B–$22.5B range, with the overall center of gravity shifting lower. Inflow momentum for new capital was insufficient, with leverage shifting from expansion to contraction. Overall, the current open interest structure is dominated by存量博弈, lacking sustained volume配合, and the market remains in a震荡重建 phase post-deleveraging.

4.3 Option Open Interest Concentrated in Mid-to-Far Month & High Strike Prices, Bullish Structure Prevails

BTC option open interest is mainly concentrated in mid-to-far month contracts like April and June, indicating a market focused on medium-term positioning. Structurally, Calls significantly outnumber Puts, maintaining an overall bullish bias. Looking at strike prices, Calls are concentrated in the $80,000–$120,000 range, while Puts are distributed in the $60,000–$80,000 range, forming a typical structure of upside calls and downside hedges. It's worth noting that Put open interest around the $60K–$70K zone is not low, indicating that while maintaining medium-term bullish expectations, short-term defensive sentiment is also strengthening.

4.4 Skew Remains in Negative Territory, Short-Term Defensive Sentiment Still Dominant

Over the past week, the BTC 25D Skew remained within negative territory (approximately -6 to -10), with Puts still commanding a premium over Calls, indicating the market continues to price in elevated downside risk. Shorter cycles (7D, 30D) showed more pronounced volatility, dipping rapidly before briefly recovering, reflecting反复切换 in short-term sentiment. Medium-to-long-term cycles (60D and above) were relatively stable, maintaining within the -5 to -7 range, suggesting little change in medium-term risk expectations. Overall, Skew has not shown sustained recovery towards接近 neutral or positive values, meaning that despite repair attempts, defensive positioning remains dominant.

4.5 Implied Volatility Stabilizes, Market Expects Limited Short-Term Volatility

Over the past week, the BTC DVol index oscillated within the 52%–55% range, initially declining slightly before rising again, without a trend性抬升, indicating the market's overall pricing of future volatility remains restrained. Despite significant price declines during the period, implied volatility only rose温和ly, without恐慌式放大, suggesting the market does not view the current adjustment as a high-risk event. Overall, IV shows some脱敏特征 from price, reflecting traders'倾向 towards range-bound volatility expectations rather than one-sided trend movements.

5. Outlook for the Week

6. Gate Institutional Updates

Refined Operations

1. Advancing data-driven and refined management, precisely定位 client needs, enriching customized solutions.

2. Significant成效 in dormant user reactivation.

Capital Business

1. Mortgage lending scale continues to grow,接近 bull market levels.

2. BTC interest rates下调,推动 new demand growth.

Product & Technology

1. Websocket contract BBO real-time push to achieve full开放 in April.

2. AI逐步落地, institutional services entering AI-assisted operations phase.

Events & Marketing

1. CrossEx Advanced Trading Incentive Program launched, starting April 9th,最高可享 contract rebate maker fee rate of -0.01%.

2. April Hong Kong Web3 Festival Side Event即将开启.

Data Sources:

• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-historical-data

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

• CMC, https://coinmarketcap.com/real-world-assets/?type=all-tokens

• Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/depth-delta

• Dune, https://dune.com/gateresearch/gate-institutional-weekly-report

• CryptoQuant, https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/derivatives

• Amberdata, https://pro.amberdata.io/options/deribit/btc/current/

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