Over the past week, market volatility intensified under the combined effects of fluctuating geopolitical conflict expectations and stronger-than-expected economic data. WTI crude oil rose over 7% weekly, briefly surpassing $113. Coupled with robust retail sales, ISM, and non-farm payroll data, U.S. stocks rebounded, precious metals hit new highs, and crypto assets followed the recovery in risk appetite. On the capital front, BTC ETFs saw a modest weekly net inflow of approximately $22.3 million, while ETH ETFs continued net outflows. End-of-quarter rebalancing led to rapid outflows following initial inflows.

Over the past week, the market was driven by a combination of ceasefire easing, cooling inflation, and stable policies. Oil prices plummeted, the VIX retreated, risk appetite rebounded, and BTC's trading range shifted upward to $68,000–$73,000. The capital landscape showed strong recovery after intense volatility. BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $833 million for the week, hitting a new high for the period, while ETH ETFs also saw net inflows, indicating institutional buying has regained dominance. Trading structures shifted towards macro high-volatility assets and leading platforms, with capital concentrating on energy commodities like crude oil, and DEX activity returning to high-liquidity platforms such as Uniswap.

Over the past week, the market was primarily driven by escalating US-Iran tensions. WTI crude oil surged nearly 17%, reclaiming the $100 level, which pushed US Treasury yields higher (10Y to 4.44%), strengthened the US dollar, and led to a broad decline of over 6% in the crypto market, with the VIX index rising to 31. On the capital flow front, BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $500 million mid-week, followed by a slight rebound. On-chain, Perp DEX TradFi trading volume rose to around $17 billion, while CEX TradFi perpetual trading hit a new high for the period; overall DEX volume retreated.