Ignas: HYPE and AVAX Face Value Capture Test as Short-Term Crypto Market Rally Narratives Near Exhaustion

Odaily: DeFi researcher Ignas posted on X that the crypto market currently appears to lack new narratives capable of driving short-term rallies. Although institutional adoption of crypto technology continues to advance, traditional financial institutions often do not need to directly purchase crypto tokens to capture most of the benefits, so the investment logic of betting on institutional adoption through tokens is limited in appeal, and the real upside may be more concentrated in equities and private markets.

More concerning is that many crypto tokens appear to be reduced to "payment tools" for institutional partnerships rather than genuinely accumulating value from those partnerships, and ordinary token holders may instead become the exit liquidity. Citing HYPE and AVAX as examples, he said the trading logic for HYPE driven by NYSE-related news may already be priced in, and it remains to be seen how licenses are implemented and their actual impact on buybacks; while AVAX has a partnership with the NYSE, how much value its provision of core ledger technology to the NYSE can actually bring to the AVAX token still needs to be verified.

If the market sees expectations of monetary easing, Bitcoin may rise, but this may be difficult to occur before the AI bubble bursts, and an AI market crash could also hit crypto assets first. In addition, the altcoin speculative market continues to shrink, and market hype, FOMO sentiment, and project team harvesting narratives are gradually losing funding support.

Looking to the medium and long term, Ignas still believes the crypto industry will continue to exist, but it may face challenges in the future such as the U.S. Democratic Party taking a tougher stance on the crypto industry and rising interest rates putting pressure on risk assets. He concluded by saying that this bearish comment itself may instead constitute a bullish signal worth noting, because when the market broadly wants to sell, it may be exactly the time worth considering buying.