QCP Capital: Falling Oil Prices Ease Rate Hike Pressure, but Iran Situation and Central Bank Policies Remain Uncertain

Odaily reports that QCP Capital has released a macro market analysis report, noting that Trump has temporarily suspended a new round of military strikes against Iran but will continue to maintain the blockade. After meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister on November 9, Trump stated that military action was temporarily paused, but significant differences remain between the two sides and no agreement has yet been reached. Brent crude settled at $92.57 per barrel, down 5.85% in a single day, and has since fallen further, now approximately 18% below its October 30 level.

On global monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to 4.85% by a 6-3 vote but removed its policy bias regarding further rate hikes if necessary; the Bank of England raised rates to 4% by an 8-1 vote. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan both held rates steady, but market pricing for rates in both countries was still marked lower. Canada's employment fell by 4,700, below market expectations of a 14,000 increase; Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 6%, and the yield on Japan's 2-year government bonds dropped 12.8 basis points.

In the AI industry, the U.S. Democratic Party won both chambers of Congress and 5 governor seats. It is estimated that 59% of the data center capacity currently planned for construction in the United States will face new restrictions or higher approval thresholds.

In the crypto market, Strategy purchased 1,036 BTC for $81.9 million while repurchasing $188.3 million worth of STRC preferred stock, a repurchase size about 2.3 times its Bitcoin purchase expenditure, funded in part by the sale of $283.8 million worth of MSTR shares. In addition, between November 2 and 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of $1.2324 billion.

QCP Capital concluded by raising the key questions the market needs to watch going forward: whether falling oil prices can continue to ease rate hike pressure, or whether a stalemate in Iran negotiations will reignite inflation risks and prompt the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England to be the first to resume rate hikes.