Polymarket's "Average number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by end of September less than 25" probability is currently at 9%, down 38% in 24 hours

Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that Polymarket's "Average number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by end of September less than 25" probability is currently at 9%, down 38% in 24 hours.

This is based on the ship transit data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait published by IMF Portwatch, specifically the 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" on September 30, 2026.

The statistical scope includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Ships not tracked by IMF Portwatch are not included.

If rounded figures in the chart versus the original unrounded figures in the downloadable file affect the final settlement result, the unrounded figures shall prevail.

Settlement can occur once the data is published. If the corresponding data for September 30 is still not published within 14 calendar days thereafter, the latest available data at that time shall be used for settlement.

If the initially published data contains obvious entry or data integrity errors, the market may wait up to the end of the 3rd calendar day after the data is published for an official correction. However, "IMF data differing from other institutions' data" does not count as a data error.

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