Real Trading Volume Off by 14x from Reported Figures, Trader Questions Kalshi's Volume Accounting Methodology

Odaily News: Prominent prediction market trader @retardmode stated that approximately 61% of Kalshi's disclosed trading volume comes from multi-event combo bets; a combo ticket where a user actually stakes $1 and receives $14.1 if all legs hit would be counted as $14.1 in trading volume. According to their calculations, Kalshi's actual trading volume yesterday was approximately $136 million, while the publicly reported figure was $1.91 billion. Kalshi's crypto business lead IcoBeast responded that perpetual contracts and crypto prediction markets should be viewed separately, and that prediction markets do not have similar market-making rebates; Polymarket trader @CarOnPolymarket estimated that the actual trading volume from the relevant combo bets may be only about 7.1% of the disclosed figure.