Analysis: Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap Impulse” Turns Positive for First Time in 93 Days, Signaling Recovery in On-Chain Capital Flows

Odaily News – Bitcoin's “Realized Cap Impulse” indicator has recently ended its 93-day negative streak and turned positive for the first time, marking a reversal signal after the longest capital contraction cycle since the 2022 bear market.

The indicator tracks the momentum of changes in Realized Cap, combined with Bitcoin’s supply and price factors, to measure whether token flows with actual economic significance in the network are driving an expansion of the capital base. The shift to positive is not merely a reflection of rising prices, but rather indicates that the state of capital flows within the Bitcoin network is undergoing a change.

Data shows that the indicator crossed above the zero line on August 20 when BTC was priced at approximately $73,000, and has maintained a positive reading for eight consecutive days. BTC has since risen to around $78,900, an increase of roughly 8% over the period. As of the latest reading, the indicator stands at 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26.

Historical data shows that similar late-cycle bear market signals have previously accompanied significant Bitcoin rebounds: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose approximately 160% within a year; after March 2019, it gained about 173% in 90 days; and following January 2023, it climbed roughly 45% in 90 days, with a one-year gain of 104%.

However, the Realized Cap Impulse indicator is not an absolute cycle-bottom signal. Similar turnarounds occurred in 2018 and early 2022, but markets did not immediately enter sustained uptrends afterward. Analysts suggest that the indicator maintaining a sustained positive reading, confirmed by price action, carries more reference value than a single-day breakthrough of the zero line.