下一輪牛市的主戰場在哪？答案就藏在這兩類資產裡

Original Author: Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO

Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

The crypto market is finally showing signs of bottoming out. Since July 1st, Bitcoin has risen 9%, while the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 6% over the same period. Crypto ETF inflows have turned positive, and market sentiment is continuously warming. Although it's too early to declare a full market stabilization, these positive signals have led many to ask about the direction of the next market trend.

Last Friday, an investment advisor asked me: "If the market has bottomed, what asset will lead the next crypto bull run?"

Typically, during a crypto winter, this is a difficult question to answer. The main narrative of a new bull market often only becomes clear after the trend is well underway.

But this time, I believe the answer is already apparent: the core narrative of the next crypto bull market will be the convergence of on-chain finance and traditional finance.

In other words, the market's core focus will revolve around stablecoins, asset tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and the growth of institutional-grade decentralized finance (DeFi) to multi-trillion dollar scale. Blockchain will disrupt the existing financial system, much like the internet reshaped media and retail in the early 21st century. I predict this could be the largest crypto cycle ever, for two reasons: First, this cycle is driven by real application value and revenue, not just market speculation; second, the target market is much larger than previous cycles – targeting the global financial market, not just the crypto industry itself.

Some might find these trends self-evident: asset tokenization will inevitably lead the next bull market, stablecoins will eventually break through trillions of dollars, and Wall Street institutions will eventually migrate on-chain. After all, crypto infrastructure offers many inherent advantages over the traditional financial system: 24/7 trading is far more convenient than limited trading hours; instant settlement is superior to T+1 delivery; global interoperability transcends geographical boundaries. I'm not alone in this view; the Chairman of the SEC, the CEO of the world's largest asset manager, and the CEO of the world's largest bank all agree.

However, even though the trend seems clear, the vast majority of investors have not yet positioned their assets for this prospect. Many are still wondering if the crypto industry has "missed the boat." And within this perception gap lies a huge investment opportunity.

So, how should we position ourselves for the next bull market? We can focus on two representative entities driving the industry convergence from different directions: Hyperliquid (token: HYPE) and Robinhood (stock ticker: HOOD).

Breaking Out from the Crypto Industry

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a Layer 1 public chain (similar to Ethereum, Solana), natively designed to build a perpetual derivatives trading market primarily for crypto assets. Initially, investors speculated by trading crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Hyperliquid platform.

But thanks to its excellent technical experience – ease of use, instant settlement, 24/7 trading, etc. – its business scope quickly expanded outward. Now, nearly half of Hyperliquid's trading volume comes from traditional assets like oil, silver, and the S&P 500 index. The platform is also continuously expanding into commodity spot trading, prediction markets, and options, posing a competitive threat to exchanges like the CME, Nasdaq, ICE, Kalshi, and Coinbase.

Hyperliquid's rapid development is putting pressure on competitors. The CME has even sued the CFTC, attempting to hinder the regulator's acceptance of perpetual futures products pioneered by Hyperliquid.

Even amidst the crypto winter, the HYPE token has still risen 146% year-to-date. The growth is backed by real data: Hyperliquid's cumulative total revenue exceeded $1 billion in June, with projected annual revenue reaching $800 million. The platform uses 99% of its revenue to buy back its native token, HYPE, on the open market, continuously reducing the circulating supply. In my view, even if HYPE's price doubles again, its valuation would remain reasonable.

Moving Inward from Traditional Finance

Robinhood chooses to stand on the side of traditional finance to advance this industry convergence.

Robinhood itself is a traditional securities broker, competing with institutions like Charles Schwab for retail and professional investors. For a long time, Robinhood has been more open towards crypto assets than its peers, and it was the first major broker to offer direct cryptocurrency trading functionality.

At the same time, Robinhood fully agrees with my "industry convergence" view. Company CEO Vlad Tenev stated that asset tokenization will "eventually reshape the entire financial system"; the crypto industry and traditional finance "have long existed in two separate systems, but they will eventually fully converge." He predicts the boundaries between the two will ultimately disappear completely.

On July 1st, Robinhood made a full bet on this trend by launching its self-developed Layer 2 blockchain, Robinhood Chain. This public chain is open to users in 120 countries (currently not supporting the US), allowing them to trade tokenized stocks 24/7, 365 days a year. The chain is also compatible with major DeFi protocols: users can exchange assets on Uniswap, lend/borrow assets using Morpho as collateral, or use staked assets as margin to trade perpetual contracts on the Lighter platform. Within just two weeks of launch, the assets custodied on Robinhood Chain exceeded $300 million, processing 3.6 million transactions daily.

This is worth reading carefully: Earlier this month, Robinhood, relying solely on a technology launch, deployed a financial service in 120 countries. Users could buy, sell, margin trade, and leverage tokenized stocks in real-time, non-stop, and a significant number of users are already participating.

Skeptics will point out that early on-chain volume was concentrated on meme coins, not stocks, which is true. But the volume of tokenized stock trading is already at a real scale, a genuine user base exists, and I expect both types of trading volume to continue growing.

One thing I am very certain of: Robinhood's major competitors are closely watching this project and starting to think: Should we follow suit? Do we need to build a Charles Schwab Chain, UBS Chain, Bank of America Chain? The trading activity Robinhood has shown in its early days cannot be ignored by any institution.

The Two Types of Investment Vehicles That Will Stand Out

I believe the new bull market will be large enough to lift the majority of assets in the industry. I am long-term bullish on mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, as well as crypto-related publicly listed companies.

But two types of investment vehicles will have particularly outstanding upside potential.

1. The Hyperliquid Track: Native Crypto Financial Applications with Real Revenue and Superior Tokenomics

Hyperliquid's core advantage over other crypto applications is its stable real revenue and well-designed token mechanism (99% of revenue used for buyback and burn of HYPE). Many investors have seen crypto applications with large user bases and trading volumes, yet their token prices remain depressed. Hyperliquid's model perfectly addresses the demands of such investors.

Looking ahead, I believe many new crypto projects will emulate HYPE's token mechanism, creating a wave of promising next-generation token investment opportunities. Simultaneously, I am watching mature projects that already have significant business scale and are actively working to deeply bind token value with platform usage. For example, Uniswap and Aave, both massive platforms, are rapidly optimizing their tokenomics; Morpho is also moving in the same direction.

2. The Robinhood Track: Mature Traditional Enterprises Leveraging Crypto Infrastructure

Industry disruption reshapes market share. The adoption of stablecoins, asset tokenization, and blockchain-based trading infrastructure represents the biggest technological change in financial markets in the last fifty years, and a massive transformation is happening quietly.

To identify winners, focus on companies that are already running crypto businesses at scale, not just proof-of-concept projects. Concept pilots are cheap and generate easy headlines, but they accumulate little useful experience. The industry knowledge Robinhood is gaining from its public chain operating in 120 countries is far beyond what any small pilot project could offer.

The companies I'm consistently watching include Coinbase, Figure, and BlackRock; also keeping an eye on Visa, Stripe, and even JPMorgan. There are certainly other participants, but these companies are genuinely and deeply committed to this transformation.

Embrace the Mega Trend of Industry Convergence

There's long been a consensus in the crypto industry that blockchain's ultimate mark of success is when the technology becomes "invisible" – when it's deeply embedded in the underlying architecture of the financial system to the point where users don't even realize blockchain is powering the services they use.

I firmly believe that when the next bull market arrives, making traditional finance and the crypto industry inseparable, this vision will become reality. Investors should position themselves ahead of this trend.

Note: Sometimes, to judge a company's commitment in the crypto space, you need to look at its actions, not its marketing rhetoric.