The World Cup kicks off: A look at the “huge wins” and “massive losses” in prediction markets

Wenser

Odaily资深作者

@wenser2010

2026-06-18 05:11

This article is about 2529 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Upsets are frequent, with some netting nearly $10 million in profit while others lose over a million.

AI Summary

Expand

Key Takeaways: The 2026 World Cup is expected to drive up to $10 billion in trading volume for sports betting and prediction markets. Multiple cases of million-dollar profits and losses have emerged, highlighting the high volatility and risk of upsets.
Key Elements:
1. Asset management giant Bernstein predicts that the 2026 World Cup will generate $10 billion in trading volume and over $3 billion in incremental funds for prediction markets.
2. Polymarket user @mintblade achieved a perfect 4-0 record, earning $9.24 million in a single day with a 100% win rate.
3. New wallet @Fishalive bet on a Spain draw, turning a $4.22 million cost into $9.06 million in profit, with a return exceeding 1,000%.
4. User @endlessFate earned over $7.85 million in the past week, with a single bet on a Saudi Arabia match yielding a $5.67 million profit.
5. Frequent upset cases: Spain's 0-0 draw with Cape Verde led user @betoor619, who bet on a Spanish victory, to lose nearly $1 million.
6. The high leverage of prediction markets is evident: user weatherman12 bet against an Argentina win, but Messi's hat trick resulted in the total loss of the $1.81 million principal.

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Wenser (@wenser2010 )

The World Cup has officially kicked off, and prediction markets are witnessing an exponential surge in trading volume.

According to a report from asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital. Earlier, various prediction markets and exchanges launched incentive campaigns to capitalize on this opportunity for attention and volume. With the group stage underway, upsets, draws against underdogs, and dark horse breakthroughs have become the norm, bringing both "instant wealth" and "massive losses" for prediction market participants. (Recommended reading: "World Cup Prediction Battle Begins: How Are Major Exchanges Competing for This Event Traffic?", "The Second Venue of the World Cup: Inside the Prediction Market".)

Odaily reminds readers that upsets are common in prediction markets for sports events, and copy-trading should be approached with caution.

Top Profitable World Cup Accounts: 4-0 Perfect Record, New Account Profits Nearly $10 Million

First, let's look at the profit leaderboard. Some newly created wallets have instantly raked in nearly $10 million in profits, raising questions about potential inside information while also prompting the reflection: "A football is round; anything can happen on the World Cup stage."

Player #1: Perfect 4-0 Record, $9.24 Million Profit in a Single Day

Yesterday, a smart money address (@mintblade) earned $9.24 million in profit within a single day from World Cup predictions. All four of its predictions were correct, achieving a 100% win rate. In the Iran vs. New Zealand match, the participant placed $7.03 million on "Iran will not win" and earned $7.34 million from that single prediction. Notably, this user currently ranks first on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade

Player #2: First Bet Yields $9.06 Million Profit, Biggest Winner of Spain's Upset Draw

In the early hours of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in an unexpected draw. A new wallet (@Fishalive) spent $4.22 million on Polymarket predicting "Spain will not win the match" and "Cape Verde wins with a handicap of -2.5," ultimately turning $4.22 million into $13.28 million for a $9.06 million profit.

Notably, the user purchased approximately 4.7 million shares of "Spain will not win" at an average price of 9 cents, which settled at 100 cents after the match, yielding a profit of about $4.31 million on that single trade, a return of over 1000%. With a total profit of $9.06 million, this user ranks second on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive

Player #3: Two Trades, $5.2 Million Profit

On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS invested a total of $4.73 million betting on "Turkey will not win" and "Australia +1.5 handicap." Both predictions were successful, ultimately yielding a profit of $5.2 million. The user achieved a 128% return on one of the individual trades.

It is worth noting that despite a maximum single-trade profit of $4.8 million, the user still has an overall loss of nearly $2.58 million on their entire portfolio.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f

Player #4: 3rd Place on Polymarket Profit List, Over $7.85 Million Profit in the Last Week

Polymarket user @endlessFate has made $4.7 million in profit over the past week. Previously, in the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, they wagered $2.48 million on "match draw," "Uruguay will not win," and "Saudi Arabia +1.5 handicap," ultimately earning $5.67 million. In the "Australia vs. Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia +1.5 handicap." In the ongoing "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan" match, they invested nearly $7.5 million predicting a "Colombia win," currently earning over $2.05 million in profit. They currently rank 3rd on Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard with over $7.85 million. Furthermore, this user started participating in predictions on Polymarket in April of this year and has an overall profit of over $6 million, despite suffering multiple losses previously.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate

Current prediction for "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan"

Account's profit/loss performance over the past week

For more weekly profitable accounts, see the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.

Representative Accounts with World Cup Losses: $1 Million Loss from Upset, Over $1.8 Million Loss on Argentina Not Winning

In prediction markets, for every winner, there is a loser. The counterparty always exists, just in a different form.

Spain vs. Cape Verde: 0-0 Draw Leads to $1 Million Loss for Single Account

Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bought "Spain to win" in the World Cup group stage match between Spain and Cape Verde. The match ended 0-0, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for the user.

Notably, the user entered the trade at a price of 92 cents, essentially risking a $1 million principal for a potential $8,500 profit. This seemingly safe bet turned into a massive loss due to an upset, largely thanks to Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper making 7 incredible saves and their rock-solid defense.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity

Lost the watermelon, couldn't even find the sesame seed

Messi Scores Hat-Trick, Argentina Defeats Algeria, Single Trade Losses Over $1.8 Million

On the 17th, before the World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria began, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested $1.81 million betting on "Argentina will not win and Algeria +1.5." If Argentina had drawn or lost, the two bets would have yielded a $2.65 million profit.

However, Argentina ultimately defeated Algeria thanks to a hat-trick from Messi, with the match ending 3-0. Consequently, the user's entire investment was lost.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12