Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )

After several unsuccessful attempts to reach $120,000, Bitcoin prices retreated and consolidated, marking another correction in the crypto market today. According to OKX market data, Bitcoin has fallen 3.35% in the past 24 hours, breaking below the lower support level of the daily chart and currently trading at $114,840. Ethereum has fallen 5.96% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $3,635. Solver has fallen for the fifth consecutive day, showing little sign of a rebound, and is currently trading at $168.

At present, the entire market sentiment is at a stalemate, and the differences between bulls and bears are becoming increasingly obvious.

Risk sentiment is also reflected in margin call data. Over the past 24 hours, 162,820 traders experienced margin calls, totaling $637 million. Of this total, long positions saw $588 million in liquidations, while short positions saw $48.76 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Binance ETHUSD perpetual contract, with a total of $13.79 million in liquidations.

CryptoQuant data shows that the trading volume of ETH and altcoin contracts has rebounded rapidly in the past period of time. The latest statistical value has reached US$223.6 billion, the highest in nearly five months, and speculative enthusiasm seems to have increased.

However, data from Coinglass.com shows that BTC contract holdings have fallen slightly to $84.13 billion since hitting a record high of $86.864 billion on July 18, releasing a certain amount of leverage pressure, indicating that the market is slowly shrinking from a high level.

Fund sentiment turns to wait-and-see, and ETF inflows diverge

According to data from sosovalue.com , Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows since July 21st, following a period of concentrated net inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from positive to cautious. In contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs have yet to experience significant outflows, but inflows are also weakening, suggesting the market may be cautious about future policy expectations and market performance.

Bitcoin's market share BTC.D rebounded temporarily after a sharp decline on July 21. The relative performance of altcoins has gradually weakened, and the strength relationship between sectors may begin to show new changes.

Macroeconomic disturbance: Trump's tariff order triggers safe-haven demand

Policy disruptions are often behind market fluctuations. US President Trump signed a new tariff executive order last night, imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on imports from 67 trading partners, raising the overall tariff rate to its highest level in over a century. Notably, the policy will take effect on August 7th, rather than August 1st as previously expected. This is interpreted as creating a buffer window for multilateral negotiations.

Meanwhile, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 38.2%. The cumulative probability of a rate cut at the October meeting is also approaching 60%. On July 30, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September was 60.9%. The market's bet on a reduced probability of a Fed rate cut may have further strengthened defensive sentiment.

Hong Kong releases stablecoin regulatory details, releasing compliance dividends

On the regulatory front, Hong Kong has officially implemented stablecoin regulations. The Stablecoin Ordinance came into effect on August 1st, and the HKMA simultaneously released the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Licensed Stablecoin Issuers," clarifying the application requirements and regulatory framework. According to the Securities Times, major note-issuing banks such as Bank of China (Hong Kong) and Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) may be the first to submit applications, and several Chinese banks and large internet companies are also actively preparing.

As of now, 44 financial institutions have completed the upgrade of their securities trading licenses, and their initial business will cover stablecoin trading, custody and financing services, which has laid the institutional foundation for the entire crypto compliance ecosystem.

Listed companies are "buying up" crypto assets, and the financial reports are eye-catching

Enterprise capital is a key driver of this crypto rally. According to a report released Thursday by Galaxy Research, Bitcoin finance companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, and SharpLink currently hold a combined $100 billion in crypto assets. Bitcoin accounts for the majority of this, holding 791,662 BTC (approximately $93 billion), representing 3.98% of the circulating supply. Ethereum, on the other hand, holds 1.3 million ETH, valued at over $4 billion and representing 1.09% of the supply.

Strategy (MSTR) released its Q2 financial report, showing record-breaking revenue of approximately $14.03 billion, a 7,106% year-over-year increase. This includes $14 billion in unrealized gains from digital assets. As of July 30th, Strategy held a total of 628,791 Bitcoins, with a cost per coin of $73,277. The company also announced an application for $4.2 billion in STRC issuance financing, which will be used to further increase its BTC holdings.

Another whale, The Ether Machine, holds 334,800 ETH (about US$1.24 billion), making it the third largest coin holder after the Ethereum Foundation.

Technology and sentiment intertwined: institutional trends become the market vane

Glassnode analysis shows that the current Bitcoin price is still higher than the average cost range of short-term holders (24 hours to 3 months) ($110,000 to $117,000). This price range overlaps with the historically low trading volume area and has strong support during the correction process.

CryptoQuant analysts also noted a net decrease in long-term Bitcoin (LTH) holders (LTH) when Bitcoin reached the psychologically important $120,000 mark. Institutional investor Galaxy Digital sold approximately 80,000 Bitcoins. The analysis indicates that this market correction is primarily driven by institutions, not retail investors. Overall profit-taking remains manageable, and the market is watching to see whether this correction will escalate into a broader correction.

Market research firm SentimenTrader notes that the US stock market is nearing the end of a "super July": the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high 10 times this month, and the Nasdaq Composite Index set a record 14 times, the third-best performance for this period since 1928. However, historical data shows that after a hot July, August often performs weakly, with a significantly increased probability of a pullback.

In a report to clients, Bernstein stated that the current crypto bull cycle is still in its early stages, and trading platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase are expected to benefit from increased trading volume and mainstream market adoption. Bernstein reiterated its "outperform" rating for the two companies, expressing its continued confidence in their performance. The report showed that Robinhood reported strong second-quarter results on Wednesday and continued to expand its cryptocurrency product offerings. Its trading volume soared to a six-month high in July, thanks to a rebound in market volatility and growing investor interest in ETH, SOL, and DeFi tokens, driven by factors such as Circle's listing. Cryptocurrency trading volume is expected to rebound significantly in the second half of the year. In addition, the report mentioned that Coinbase has reached a strategic partnership with JPMorgan Chase, which has greatly promoted the popularization of digital assets. JPMorgan Chase's embrace of an industry once criticized by its CEO will accelerate Coinbase's customer acquisition. Bernstein believes that the current crypto bull market is still early, and recent developments have confirmed this view. At present, "no action is needed."

On-chain game: Chip distribution is quietly changing

On-chain analyst Ember Monitoring indicates that a swing trader, which has accumulated $73.96 million in profits from ETH trading, has begun buying back ETH. This address transferred 173 million USDT to Wintermute over the past four hours and subsequently received 20,000 ETH, worth approximately $74.06 million.

This whale previously bought 132,000 ETH at an average price of $2,540 in June and sold 113,600 ETH at an average price of $2,923 in July, generating $43.5 million in profits. Currently, this address holds 40,000 ETH at an average price of $3,121.

Onchain Lens monitoring also shows that a newly created wallet received another 23,314 ETH from Galaxy Digital, worth approximately $88.27 million. The wallet currently holds a total of 62,966 ETH, with a total value of approximately $233 million.

The story of AguilaTrades, a major contract trader, was less smooth. His highly leveraged BTC long position on HyperLiquid was partially liquidated again, leaving him with a cumulative loss of $39.8 million and nearly zero funds in his account.

Strategic Game in Divergence: ETH is the Main Line, Will Altcoins Become a Victim?

Crypto influencer @0xSunNFT posted on social media that the market is currently divided between bulls and bears, and that he has established a hedge position: long ETH and short a basket of weaker altcoins, with a ratio of approximately 1:1. His strategy is based on the fact that ETH is the main asset in this rally and plays a prominent role in infrastructure narratives like stablecoins. Furthermore, the funds that institutions are using to increase their ETH holdings through coin-to-equity financing are unlikely to spread to non-mainstream cryptocurrencies.

0xSun pointed out that if the market continues its upward trend in the second half of the year, ETH may still lead the main trend; if the market weakens, ETH at least still has the ability to be supported by institutions, while altcoins are more likely to become the vanguard of the decline.

However, on-chain data shows that a newly created wallet address recently withdrew approximately $4.2 million worth of various tokens from Binance, including 80,126 LINK (approximately $1.46 million), 110.34 billion SHIB (approximately $1.45 million), 3.44 million MATIC (approximately $762,000), and 142.62 ETH (approximately $552,000). The current ownership of this address is unknown.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through key resistance levels, while Ethereum continues to consolidate at high levels, struggling to break through. Investor sentiment has gradually shifted to a conservative stance. Diverging ETF flows, frequent portfolio adjustments by major whales, and ongoing macroeconomic policy disruptions have compounded the market's defensive stance as August approaches. At such a sensitive time, even minor fluctuations could ignite a new round of bull-bear market volatility. For investors, now may not be the time to take proactive action, but rather a more patient period of holding positions and waiting for a clearer direction.