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Why is this a bull market for US stocks and Bitcoin?
区块律动BlockBeats
特邀专栏作者
2024-11-21 11:00
This article is about 934 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes
The answer may lie in $MSTR stock.

Bitcoin is heading for $100,000, but the cryptocurrency trading community is very quiet. After Trump was elected, everyone was looking forward to the influx of liquidity. However, apart from the meme hype activated by Binance, all altcoins were far behind BTC. Why? Why is it that when Bitcoin rises recently, altcoins fall, and when Bitcoin falls, altcoins also fall?

The answer may lie in $MSTR stock.

MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin is not new in the cryptocurrency circle. It has become a BTC index in the US stock market since the last cycle. However, in September this year, MSTR attracted the attention of the market again. This time, it was because MSTR was launched in advance before the rise of Bitcoin price, and maintained a continuous premium to Bitcoin in the subsequent market.

BlockBeats notes that the NAV premium coefficient (Net Asset Value Premium) is highly correlated with MicroStrategy's stock issuance activities. Soon after MSTR's stock issuance, the premium coefficient will go up. According to MSTR Tracker , the current NAV premium has reached about 3.3.

So many people started discussing "Why is MSTR at a premium?" In fact, MicroStrategy quietly started a new coin buying strategy called "premium issuance" in the middle and late last year.

Related reading: " The strategy of "issuing bonds to buy coins" has not changed, why did the MSTR premium suddenly soar? "

Simply put, MicroStrategy has been raising funds to purchase BTC by issuing bonds, which means that each share of MSTR represents a certain amount of BTC (which is also the reason why it is regarded as the US stock BTC index). However, the "premium issuance" model is simpler and more immediate: when the price of Bitcoin rises and the company's market value rises, the exchange rate of MSTR to Bitcoin will generate a premium.

At this time, the company issues additional MSTR shares and buys more Bitcoin at a premium than the corresponding amount of shares. In this way, the BTC corresponding to each share of MSTR will further increase, which means that the company's market value and the value of MSTR will also increase, and then the cycle will continue.

To sum up in one sentence: The more MSTR is issued, the more valuable it becomes.


What does this have to do with the Bitcoin bull market? In addition to the fact that MicroStrategy accounts for 5% of the total circulation, the current US stock market seems to be experiencing a Paradigm shift. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been emphasizing this year that there will be more and more MSTRs in the US stock market, and he also called his model "infinite money glitch." Many people did not take it seriously at first, but recently when US stock giants such as Microsoft also began to explore "Bitcoin finance", you can feel that the gears of fate have begun to turn.

In other words, if Saylor's vision continues to become a reality, more and more US stock companies will adopt the "premium issuance" of Bitcoin finance, and the price of Bitcoin will be further tied to US stocks. And these huge liquidity will be completely undertaken by BTC alone, and have nothing to do with other altcoins (this is also one of the reasons why the inflow of Bitcoin ETF has surged recently, while the Ethereum ETF has not made any waves).

It is foreseeable that if the crypto industry stops in narrative innovation and practical ability, Bitcoin will gradually drift away from Crypto. In this context, there are only two betas left in the bull market: one is Bitcoin, and the other is Solana, which undertakes the liquidity in the circle.

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