Odaily News Polymarket announced in a post that it will launch a Perpetual Contracts (Perps) feature, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading with leverage on the platform in the future. Early access registration is now open.

Odaily News KALSHI will launch perpetual futures cryptocurrency trading.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will the next cryptocurrency hack exceeding $100 million in losses occur". This market primarily references the Rekt News leaderboard as the adjudication source, and can also use publicly recognized reliable reports as a basis. Currently, this prediction market has set four time nodes: April 30, June 30, September 30, and December 31.

The event contract rules are: This is a market regarding whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an attack or hack valued at a minimum of $100 million equivalent between the market creation and 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will ultimately resolve to "No". Hacks on decentralized exchanges and lending protocols will be counted.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Monitoring by Odaily Seer Channel shows that an account with a win rate exceeding 75% has purchased over $480,000 worth of "No permanent peace agreement" positions in the event "US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22". The opening price was 83.1¢, the current price is 82.5¢, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $3,750.

Recently, the US and Iran have been advancing a second round of negotiations with Pakistan's mediation. However, due to factors such as port blockades and regional tensions, the uncertainty of reaching a comprehensive agreement in the short term remains high, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, identifying changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs Western Conference First Round G2 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets", an account with a 56% win rate (address: 0x9f2fe025f84839ca81dd8e0338892605702d2ca8) purchased $130,000 on the Timberwolves to beat the Nuggets, with an average opening price of 27¢.

NBA Playoffs Western Conference First Round G2 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets will tip off at 10:30 AM Beijing time today. The current series score is 1:0, with the Nuggets temporarily leading. The starting lineup for the Nuggets in this game is Johnson, Gordon, Jokic, Braun, Murray; the Timberwolves' starters are McDaniels, Randle, Gobert, Edwards, DiVincenzo.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.

The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs Cavaliers vs. Raptors," an account with nearly $3 million in profit (address: 0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1) purchased $130,000 on the Cavaliers defeating the Raptors, with an average opening price of 79¢; additionally, it purchased $20,000 on the total score of Cavaliers vs. Raptors being less than 221.5, with an average opening price of 48.1¢.

The NBA Playoffs Cavaliers vs. Raptors game started at 7 AM Beijing time today and is about to enter halftime, with the score at 52:45, the Cavaliers leading by 7 points. The series score is 1:0, with the Cavaliers leading.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily News: Polymarket website notification: We have noticed an interruption in trade execution and are working to restore service as soon as possible.

Odaily News: The Polymarket website is down, real-time probability displays for prediction events have been suspended, and trading is unavailable.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs First Round: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets," the Nuggets' win probability is currently reported at 73%, while the Timberwolves are at 27%. The current trading volume is approximately $283,800.

Previously, the Nuggets achieved a 12-game winning streak to close the regular season and defeated the Timberwolves 116-105 in the Western Conference First Round Game 1 on April 18, extending their winning streak to 13 games. In that game, Jokic recorded a triple-double, and Murray scored 30 points. The series Game 2 will continue at the Nuggets' home court.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily News On April 20th, Dr. Han, Founder and CEO of Gate, stated during a media group interview at the Rosewood Hotel in Hong Kong that while prediction markets appear as an emerging trading category on the surface, their underlying logic is closer to an "information pricing" tool. Users express their judgment on event outcomes through trading, which not only constitutes trading behavior but also continuously generates a collective probabilistic consensus. This process transforms real-world information flow into data that can be priced and verified by the market.

Dr. Han believes that the significance of prediction markets for exchanges lies not only in enriching product offerings but also in expanding the dimensions of user participation—extending from simply trading assets to making judgments on the events themselves. In the long term, as infrastructure continues to improve, prediction markets have the potential to evolve from short-term hotspots into something akin to "information infrastructure," becoming a crucial carrier connecting information and capital.

Currently, users can directly access the prediction market via the Gate App by entering the Polymarket page from the Alpha section on the platform's homepage. They can use USDT from their exchange account to participate in event predictions. Gate will continue to promote the integration of its trading ecosystem with prediction markets, expanding users' market participation experience.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs Hawks vs. Knicks," an account that profited $640,000 (address: 0x36257cb65f199caa86f7d30625bbc1250a981187) purchased over $490,000 on the Knicks defeating the Hawks. The average opening price was 70¢, buying 707,559.7 shares.

The NBA Playoffs game between the Hawks and the Knicks is scheduled to start at 8:00 AM Beijing Time on April 21st. The Hawks are the Eastern Conference's 6th seed, and the Knicks are the Eastern Conference's 3rd seed. In the first game of the series on April 19th, the Knicks defeated the Hawks with a score of 113 (Knicks) : 102 (Hawks).

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs Spurs vs. Trail Blazers," an account with a profit of $400,000 (address: 0x36257cb65f199caa86f7d30625bbc1250a981187) purchased $1.05 million on the Spurs defeating the Trail Blazers, with an average opening price of 85.6¢. Additionally, it purchased nearly $130,000 on the Spurs winning by a 10.5-point spread against the Trail Blazers, with an average opening price of 56.6¢.

The NBA Playoffs game between the Spurs and the Trail Blazers will start at 9:00 AM Beijing Time. During this season's regular matchups, the Spurs and Trail Blazers faced each other three times, with the Spurs holding a 2-1 advantage. Notably, Victor Wembanyama was sidelined due to injury in all three of those games.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Monitoring by Odaily Seer Channel shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Playoffs Rockets vs. Lakers," an account with a win rate exceeding 58% (address: 0x829358994260e23b64ce0148c34ec0412753ddf4) purchased $110,000 on the Rockets beating the Lakers, with an average opening price of 64.4¢. Additionally, it purchased $13,000 on the Rockets beating the Lakers with a -4.5 point spread.

The NBA Playoffs game between the Rockets and the Lakers is scheduled to start at 8:30 AM Beijing Time. The Lakers will be without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves; the Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Furthermore, according to a report by renowned NBA journalist Shams Charania, Rockets star Kevin Durant will also miss this game.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "CS2 IEM Rio Playoffs Spirit vs Team Falcons," account Dhdhsjsj (0x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15) bought over $140,000 on Spirit defeating Team Falcons, with an average purchase price of 41.5¢, buying 357,106.3 shares. The total trading volume for the Spirit vs Team Falcons event is currently $897,000, and the match is ongoing.

The CS2 (Counter-Strike 2) IEM event is part of the Intel Extreme Masters series, a top-tier offline tournament organized by ESL, classified as S-Tier (Valve Tier 1), with a prize pool typically around $1 million. Both Spirit (Green Dragon) and Team Falcons are mainstream top-tier teams.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Hormuz Strait returns to normal by April 30" contract has significantly dropped to 30%, a 24% decrease over the past 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $15.864 million.

The rules for this event contract are as follows: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") for the Hormuz Strait is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Due to the US imposing a maritime blockade on Iran and making excessive demands in negotiations, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of talks with the US. Iran has emphasized that the US "avoiding excessive demands" is a primary condition for continuing negotiations; otherwise, Iran is "unwilling to waste time on protracted and meaningless talks." Multiple ships have attempted to pass through the Hormuz Strait but ultimately turned back. The maritime intelligence company "TankerTrackers.com" posted on social media that two Indian vessels attempting to cross the Hormuz Strait were forced back by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, with gunfire reported during the incident.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.