ARK Dissects SpaceX's Astronomical IPO: $1.75 Trillion Valuation, 95x P/S Ratio, Where is the Money Going?

Original Author: ARK Invest

Original Compilation: TechFlow

Introduction: SpaceX secretly filed an IPO application with the SEC on April 1, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and a maximum fundraising scale of $75 billion, with the potential to list on NASDAQ in June 2026. This would be the largest IPO in capital market history.

As one of the largest venture capital holders of SpaceX, ARK Invest has released this comprehensive investment guide, addressing investors' most pressing questions from valuation logic and business breakdown to fund holding strategies.

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On April 1, 2026, SpaceX took its first step towards going public by submitting a confidential draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This will be the largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the history of capital markets. The company is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, with a potential fundraising amount of up to $75 billion, and could list on NASDAQ as early as June 2026.

For investors in the ARK Venture Fund, this news is not unexpected. SpaceX has long held the position of the fund's largest holding, accounting for 17.02% of the fund's net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK began constructing and refining its investment thesis for SpaceX when it was an early-stage venture target, and is well-prepared for the questions now flooding investors' inboxes.

This guide answers the most important of those questions.

What exactly did SpaceX file, and what happens next?

SpaceX's confidential filing allows the company to submit financial data to the SEC for review before public disclosure. According to SEC regulations, the public version of the S-1 prospectus must be released at least 15 days before the company begins marketing the stock to investors. This prospectus will be the first window for the outside world to see SpaceX's complete financial picture, including revenue data, profit margin structure, the accounting treatment for the xAI merger in February 2026, defense contract disclosures, and the governance framework determining how much control Elon Musk will retain post-IPO.

This IPO, with the internal codename 'Project Apex', is managed by a massive underwriting syndicate of at least 21 banks. A listing on NASDAQ in June 2026 would make SpaceX the first shot in what Bloomberg calls the 'super IPO triple-header'—ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic—and would shatter Saudi Aramco's 2019 record $29 billion IPO by nearly three times.

Is the $1.75 trillion valuation justified?

ARK's research exists to answer this question. The most rigorous answer is: this valuation reflects a specific set of assumptions about the future, not the present reality.

At a $1.75 trillion valuation against approximately $18.5 billion in estimated 2025 revenue, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio at the IPO price would be about 95x. No publicly traded company of comparable scale trades at this multiple. This valuation reflects investor belief in SpaceX's future form, and understanding it requires examining each business segment separately.

Starlink is the financial engine. SpaceX's satellite internet service surpassed 10 million global active users by early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK's research long ago identified Starlink as the world's fastest-growing telecom network in terms of users and revenue, a judgment that has proven to be, if anything, conservative. According to ARK's research, the scalable annual revenue opportunity in the satellite connectivity market alone could approach $160 billion, and Starlink is structurally positioned to capture a disproportionately large share.

Launch services remain the foundation. SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches in 2025, deploying approximately 85% of the world's spacecraft. ARK's research shows the company has reduced launch costs by about 95% since 2008—from roughly $15,600 per kilogram to less than $1,000 per kilogram for Falcon 9. According to ARK's research, the fully reusable Starship aims for a cost below $100 per kilogram, which would achieve another order-of-magnitude cost reduction and open up market spaces that do not currently exist.

The xAI merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking dimension of the valuation. The February 2026 merger vertically integrated launch, communications, and AI model infrastructure under one entity. ARK's research suggests that at sub-$100 per kilogram launch costs, the compute power cost of orbital data centers could be approximately 25% lower than ground-based solutions, without facing grid interconnection delays, permitting friction, and power scarcity. Musk has stated the company's goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of AI compute annually. This thesis is still in its early stages, but it is precisely this that grants the merged entity a strategic premium that any sum-of-the-parts model cannot fully capture.

ARK's research believes the $1.75 trillion IPO target is built upon credible development trajectories for SpaceX's core business segments, and the structural advantages underpinning these trajectories are durable. Starlink's user growth curve continues to exceed expectations. The decline in launch costs follows a predictable path according to Wright's Law. The xAI merger adds a strategic dimension to the platform that no comparable public company is currently attempting to replicate. The public S-1 will provide financial transparency, allowing investors to rigorously test these assumptions, and ARK believes the fundamentals can withstand such scrutiny.

Can Elon Musk's goals be achieved?

ARK's investment framework is based on a simple premise: bold technological visions, if supported by demonstrable cost curve declines and accelerating adoption, are worth taking seriously—even if market consensus is skeptical.

By this standard, SpaceX's track record commands respect. Musk's goal of fully reusable rockets was once considered unrealistic by the traditional aerospace industry; SpaceX achieved it. His vision of a global satellite internet for billions of underserved people was deemed financially unviable; Starlink proved otherwise. The company has deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, serves over 10 million users, and achieved cash flow breakeven in 2023.

More ambitious goals—including lunar factories and a network of 1 million orbital data centers—are further from proof-of-concept. However, ARK's research does not require every goal to be realized to support the investment thesis. The development of existing business segments along their current trajectories is sufficient to support an attractive investment case. The option value embedded in the more ambitious goals represents upside not yet reflected in ARK's current valuation model—a model that is being updated.

In ARK's view, Musk's goals are aggressive by any historical measure, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to compress the timeline expected by skeptics. This is not a guarantee, but ARK considers this historical record itself a meaningful data point.

Why would investors want exposure to SpaceX before its IPO?

This is perhaps the most important question for investors evaluating the ARK Venture Fund, and the answer has several layers.

The window for value creation has shifted earlier. Private companies are staying private longer, with the median age of U.S. companies at IPO reaching 12 years in 2025, compared to just 5 years in 1999. Today, the most watched companies create immense value while still private. Investors who wait until the public listing may have missed the most significant appreciation period.

IPO price is not the purchase price for most investors. When a company of SpaceX's scale goes public, IPO allocations are prioritized for institutional investors. Retail investors unable to directly participate in the IPO allocation will buy in the open market at a price determined by first-day supply and demand—a price often significantly higher than the IPO price. Historical experience shows that high-profile IPOs with high valuations often experience significant volatility post-listing before stabilizing at a long-term price level.

ARK Venture Fund investors gain VC-level access. The ARK Venture Fund holds SpaceX through direct ownership—not via secondary market intermediaries, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or structured products that add fee layers and valuation premiums. ARK venture fund investors have gained exposure throughout SpaceX's valuation journey from $350 billion (2024), $800 billion (2025), $1.25 trillion post-merger, to the current $1.75 trillion IPO target. This entire value creation trajectory occurred in the private markets, which is precisely the design intent of the ARK Venture Fund.

What will happen to the ARK Venture Fund's holdings after SpaceX's IPO?

ARK anticipated this scenario and its implications for investors when designing the venture fund.

The ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund, designed to hold positions throughout a company's full lifecycle from early and late private stages through IPO and beyond. SpaceX's IPO is not a problem the fund needs to 'manage'; the investment vehicle itself is designed for this.

After SpaceX completes its IPO, the fund's holdings may be subject to standard lock-up period restrictions, during which ARK's SpaceX shares cannot be sold. During the lock-up, new capital from investors entering the ARK Venture Fund will be deployed into other private companies, accelerating rebalancing towards the fund's target of approximately 80% private exposure.

After the lock-up expires, the fund will have full flexibility to manage the SpaceX position—trimming when appropriate and reallocating capital to the next generation of private innovation companies within ARK's five core technology platforms (Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy Storage, Multi-Omics, and Blockchain Technology).

The performance of any ARK Venture Fund holding—public or private—is directly reflected in the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV). SpaceX's valuation growth during its private phase has been reflected in real-time in the fund's NAV. Due to the crossover nature of the ARK Venture Fund, this relationship will not change at the time of IPO. If SpaceX lists at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors will benefit accordingly, and vice versa. For long-term investors, an IPO represents a significant liquidity event in a company's lifecycle, and gaining exposure ahead of the public market repricing opportunity is precisely the advantage the ARK Venture Fund offers.

The ARK Venture Fund portfolio extends far beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord, and over 50 private companies in total. If completed, SpaceX's IPO would be a major milestone, while also freeing up capital and portfolio flexibility, enabling ARK to continue building what it believes is the most attractive portfolio of private innovation accessible to ordinary investors.

Important Information

SpaceX's IPO filing remains a confidential draft registration statement at the time of this publication. Final valuation, timing, and structure are not yet confirmed. The public S-1 prospectus has not been released. All cited data reflects publicly reported estimates and ARK's independent research. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Holdings are subject to change at any time. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.