Polymarket's "Fed keeps rates unchanged in October" probability hits 95%, up 2% in 24 hours

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October" has hit 95%, up 2% in 24 hours and up 6% over the past week.

At 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Fed will announce its October interest rate decision. The market widely expects the Fed to pause rate hikes, but reaccelerating inflation in September and elevated oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields mean the risk of further hikes remains. In addition, the biggest suspense still centers on Warsh's remarks: will he send more hawkish signals to build momentum for a December hike, or leave the market mistakenly believing that the hiking cycle has ended? Markets may then see sharp volatility, and investors are advised to watch for related risks.

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