Gate Research: The Fed Restarts Rate Hikes, Crypto Market Enters a Phase of Structural Divergence Under High Rates

Odaily News: Gate Research recently released a rate hike report. In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, marking the first increase in the policy rate in more than three years, yet the crypto market did not see significant selling. Over the following 7 days, cumulative gains reached 11.58% and 11.94%, with SOL rising as much as 18.70%.

Gate Research analysis suggests that rate hikes do not necessarily mean crypto assets will decline; what the market is truly trading is the gap between policy and expectations. During the four rate hikes in 2023, market direction diverged afterward; while the deep correction in 2022 was caused by rapid rate hikes combined with an industry credit crisis. From a transmission mechanism perspective, high rates raise the yield on dollar-denominated assets and the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets. BTC, with its higher liquidity and greater institutional participation, is relatively more defensive, while high-beta assets such as SOL show greater elasticity when the market rebounds and face higher drawdown risk when liquidity tightens. Looking ahead, if inflation and employment gradually cool and rate hike expectations peak, the market may front-run an improvement in liquidity, with the rally gradually spreading from BTC to ETH and altcoins.

As a leading global digital asset platform, Gate continues to monitor changes in the macroeconomic environment and their impact on the crypto market, helping investors better grasp market trends and identify potential opportunities in an ever-changing market environment.