Analysis: The high earnings growth of US stocks may no longer be concentrated only in leading tech companies

Odaily reports that CITIC Securities released a research report noting that, as US stocks showed reduced sensitivity to interest rates during China's long holiday, investors' focus will shift next week to the upcoming US third-quarter earnings season. LSEG consensus expectations show that the S&P 500's 26Q3 revenue and earnings year-over-year growth rates are 1.2% and 45.0%, respectively, retreating on a quarter-over-quarter basis. At the sector level, energy, information technology, materials, and health care all posted year-over-year earnings growth of more than 50%. The high earnings growth of US stocks may no longer be concentrated only in leading tech companies, and the earnings contribution from non-tech sectors is clearly strengthening.

For Hong Kong stocks, although the overseas rate hike cycle combined with the restart of AI momentum trades continues to weigh on liquidity, fundamental expectations have already bottomed, and the earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices have begun to be revised upward. There is significant divergence in sector-level earnings expectation revisions, with some niche segments seeing upward revisions, while earnings expectations for domestic demand-related sectors still face downward pressure. The upcoming third-quarter results will be an important basis for judging the progress of recovery. We recommend that investors remain patient with Hong Kong stocks and expect dividend strategies to remain relatively outperforming in the short term.