Polymarket: 64% Probability Bitcoin Hits $80K This Month, 68.5% Probability It Falls to $75K

Odaily News: Polymarket data shows that traders estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in September at 64%, and the probability of falling to $75,000 at 68.5%. With 18 days remaining until September 30 at 11:59 PM ET, market pricing indicates a higher probability of the downside scenario.

The market stipulates that if any 1-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT reaches or exceeds $80,000 before September 30, it will be resolved as "Yes." The market was created on September 7, and prices before creation do not count; Bitcoin previously reached $81,265 and $80,329 on September 4 and September 7, respectively.

Polymarket data shows that total trading volume for September price events is $5.17 million, with liquidity of approximately $1.46 million; Bitcoin's intraday high touched $79,505, just $495 away from the trigger condition. The probabilities for $90,000 and $100,000 are 8.5% and 1.75%, respectively, while the probabilities for $72,500 and $70,000 are 40.5% and 22.5%, respectively. (Bitcoin.com News)