CLARITY Act passage probability drops to 13% this year, Senate procedural vote set for September 15

Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing and becoming law in 2026 is 13%, with related contract trading volume of approximately $11.5 million, a significant decline from the 82% priced by the market in February.

The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The motion to invoke cloture to start the vote was filed by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Prediction market platform Kalshi puts the probability of a Senate vote occurring before October 1 at 91%, with related market trading volume exceeding $1.25 million.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusively regulating spot digital commodity markets, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) overseeing certain securities offerings and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements over conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and protections for decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers. (Bitcoin.com News)