Analysis: Gold is fluctuating in the short term, lacking sufficient momentum for a sustained uptrend.

Odaily News According to an analysis by CITIC Futures, gold is currently facing pressure on two fronts. On one hand, it is being dragged down by weakening buying sentiment due to the impending expiration of the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement and the uncertain prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations. On the other hand, it is being suppressed by factors such as the emphasis on maintaining Federal Reserve independence and low inflation during the Warsh hearing, coupled with the further tightening of market expectations for interest rate cuts against the backdrop of better-than-expected March retail data.

First, as shown on the official website of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, on April 21, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh stated during a hearing before the committee that if appointed to lead the Fed, he would make monetary policy decisions independently, unaffected by any suggestions or pressure from President Trump. He emphasized that low inflation serves as a protective shield for the Federal Reserve.

Second, the U.S. March Retail Sales MoM came in at 1.7%, exceeding the expected 1.4% and the previous value of 0.7%. Core Retail Sales MoM was 1.9%, also surpassing the expected 1.4% and the previous 0.7%. Supported by the strong retail data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have further converged.

Third, the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22, Eastern Time. President Trump publicly stated that if an agreement cannot be reached before the expiration, an extension of the ceasefire is "highly unlikely." Iran has stated its refusal to participate in a second round of talks with the U.S. The uncertain negotiation prospects have led to cautious buying sentiment in gold, with funds adopting a wait-and-see approach for clearer developments. (Jin10)