Coinbase Advisory Committee Report Warns Quantum Computing Threat is Approaching, Crypto Industry Needs to Develop Countermeasures Early

Odaily News A 50-page report commissioned by Coinbase indicates that although current quantum computers are not yet capable of cracking the encryption technologies of networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computers will eventually be built, and the crypto industry must begin preparations now. The report was authored by an independent advisory committee, including cryptographers and scholars such as Dan Boneh from Stanford University, Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation, and Sreeram Kannan from Eigen Labs.

The report states that estimates for the time it would take quantum computers to break current encryption standards range from several years to over a decade. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology recommends migrating to post-quantum cryptography by 2035, but the report suggests this timeline may be optimistic. Post-quantum cryptography already exists and is undergoing standardization, but post-quantum digital signatures can be tens to hundreds of times larger than existing signatures, potentially increasing block sizes by up to 38 times and introducing challenges such as wallet migration. The Ethereum Foundation has proposed a post-quantum digital signature scheme, and projects like Solana are also experimenting with post-quantum wallet designs. The report recommends adopting flexible transition strategies, such as hybrid systems, to prepare for future upgrades without compromising current security.