Analysis: The probability of the core demands of the US and Iran reaching consensus is not low

Odaily News According to CITIC Securities, from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most significant achievement of the war for the US and the greatest "accomplishment" that Trump could use to appease the domestic audience. This round of conflict has already generated substantial negative impacts on the midterm elections, necessitating an early exit. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities. Over the past few decades, successive US presidents have failed to resolve this issue, severely impacting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the immense political propaganda value of Iran's "nuclear abandonment achievement," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation likely has a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz.

From the perspective of Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important bargaining chips, even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to the extremely high cost and difficult-to-control scale of nuclear weapons, blockading the strait and attacking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to inflict significant damage on the US and the global economy, thereby forming Iran's tool for counterbalancing the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of large-scale infrastructure destruction also implies that the probability of extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing. (Jin10)