Viewpoint: Prediction Markets Become "Real-Time Radar" for Geopolitical Risks, Iran Situation Bets Dominate Bitcoin Volatility

Odaily News According to an analysis by Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer of Sygnum Bank, prediction markets are rapidly evolving into a "real-time radar" for traders to monitor macro risks during the escalation of the Iran conflict. Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have seen rapid repricing of the probability of bets on whether the US will escalate the conflict, showing a direct correlation with Bitcoin price movements. Prediction markets price "clear event outcomes" with real money, providing more differentiated signals for the crypto market, which is significantly driven by "binary events" such as regulation, geopolitics, and protocol upgrades.

Data shows that the number of transactions on prediction markets reached approximately 191 million in March, a year-on-year increase of 2838%, with monthly nominal trading volume rising to about $23.9 billion. Some professional trading teams have already incorporated prediction markets into their macro analysis frameworks, using them alongside indicators such as funding rates, options structures, and capital flows to formulate trading strategies before events occur. (Cointelegraph)