QCP: Crypto Market Downplays Iran Escalation Risk, But Sustainability of Latest Rally Remains to Be Verified

According to the latest analysis from QCP Capital, US President Trump's decision to once again postpone action against Iran until Tuesday marks the fourth such delay. The market is gradually becoming immune to the repeated pattern of "tough rhetoric + negotiation signals," leading to a cooling of expectations for risk escalation, with oil prices weakening and stock index futures remaining stable. In the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose above $69,000 and $2,140 respectively during Asian trading hours, triggering approximately $200 million in short liquidations in an environment of relatively thin liquidity.

Overall, despite ongoing geopolitical disturbances, price performance leans more towards stabilization rather than pressure. On the capital front, institutional funds continue to provide support, with Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $1.32 billion in March. The current market sentiment is generally "risk-on," and investors are not fully prepared for a near-term escalation of conflict. However, with the US stock market reopening, the sustainability of this round of rally still needs to be verified.