"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Geopolitical Conflicts May Push Up Oil Prices and Market Volatility, Contingency Strategies Need to Be Formulated in Advance

Odaily News Garret Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," posted on platform X stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated. He summarized that this move will bring three key impacts: First, the diplomatic buffer has been broken; the previously low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding ship-by-ship passage may be terminated. Second, the nature of the conflict has escalated; if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, it will strengthen Iran's stance and increase the probability of a prolonged war. Third, oil market volatility will surge, and market mismatches will intensify. The crude oil volatility index OVX has risen to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index VIX is around 24, with a ratio close to 4 times, indicating that oil market risks far exceed the pricing of stock market risks. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and the expected duration of the conflict may be extended.