JPMorgan Chase: U.S. election results could reshape tax policy, government debt and market stability, bringing about a huge economic shift
2024-11-03 02:39:32
Odaily News JPMorgan Chase recently released a report highlighting the potential impact of the US election on tax policy, government debt and market stability, providing guidance for investors on how to view the election period. JPMorgan analysts explained that key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire in 2025, and Congress may revisit tax policy because not extending these measures could significantly increase taxes. The report elaborated: "In summary, if the temporary provisions in the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will return to higher levels, which will result in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all American households and a 3.1% reduction in after-tax income for the top 1% of earners." In view of this, JPMorgan Chase expects that both parties may push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, but the specific details will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan Chase expects that both candidates' proposals will increase, which may have an impact on bond yields. "If all policy proposals from the campaign come to fruition (unlikely), deficits could increase by more than $1 trillion over the next decade under Harris and by nearly $4 trillion under Trump," the report stated. While debt concerns are obvious, JPMorgan said some of the fears may be exaggerated. The report explains: "While we view the debt and deficit trajectory as a risk, some concerns are unfounded. In fact, the current total return gives investors a second chance." JPMorgan also addressed the possibility of an extended or contested election, noting: "It is difficult to say when we will know who won this election, and we may not get a clear answer for a week or two. If the election is close, we expect to see court challenges and other legal actions by the end of the year. Also note that the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 aims to strengthen mechanisms to ensure clear enforcement of election results." In addition, the analysts advised investors: "Stock market volatility tends to decline relatively quickly after the new composition of the government is confirmed, and on average, stocks are higher 12 months after the election. In other words, don't let the election derail your plans - election results do not drive long-term market returns." This week, JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also predicted that Trump's victory could drive retail investors to risk assets, potentially pushing up the prices of Bitcoin and gold in a broader "depreciation trade." (Bitcoin.com)
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