Odaily News On the 12th, US President Trump reposted an article about a "naval blockade" of Iran on social media. The Iranian Embassy in Austria responded the same day, stating that a blockade cannot "open" the Strait of Hormuz. The embassy wrote on social media: "A simple note for those concerned: A blockade is a blockade. It cannot 'open' the Strait of Hormuz; it only restricts it. The only way out of this self-inflicted predicament is to remain open and flexible in negotiations. Follow reason." (Xinhua News Agency)

Odaily News: The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated that the Iranian delegation put forward forward-looking initiatives, but the other side ultimately failed to win the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. The United States has understood Iran's logic and principles, and now it is time for them to decide whether they can win our trust. We appreciate Pakistan's efforts in promoting the progress of these negotiations. (Jin10)

Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, stating that the current US inflation structure has gradually become clearer. Although the March CPI data recorded the largest month-on-month increase since 2022, the core CPI remained largely unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet spread comprehensively. This trend needs to be continuously monitored in subsequent PCE data and over the coming months. As long as this structure persists, it suggests that inflation has not yet become systemically embedded in the US economy and is more of a phased phenomenon, possibly related to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the US-Iran conflict lasts for an extended period, inflation may gradually evolve into a systemic risk and begin to impact economic growth. At that point, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to respond by continuing to raise interest rates.

Odaily News According to CITIC Securities, from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most significant achievement of the war for the US and the greatest "accomplishment" that Trump could use to appease the domestic audience. This round of conflict has already generated substantial negative impacts on the midterm elections, necessitating an early exit. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities. Over the past few decades, successive US presidents have failed to resolve this issue, severely impacting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the immense political propaganda value of Iran's "nuclear abandonment achievement," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation likely has a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz.

From the perspective of Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important bargaining chips, even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to the extremely high cost and difficult-to-control scale of nuclear weapons, blockading the strait and attacking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to inflict significant damage on the US and the global economy, thereby forming Iran's tool for counterbalancing the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of large-scale infrastructure destruction also implies that the probability of extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing. (Jin10)

Odaily According to Iran's Mehr News Agency report on the 12th, Haji Babaei, Deputy Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, warned the United States that the Strait of Hormuz is a "red line," fully controlled by Iran, and its transit fees must be paid in rials. The report stated that the majority of members of the Iranian parliament support the plan concerning the Strait of Hormuz. According to directives from the leadership, control over this strategic waterway is non-negotiable under any circumstances. (Xinhua News Agency)

Odaily News According to Israeli media reports on the 12th, after the US-Iran negotiations failed to reach an agreement, Israel assessed that the US-Iran ceasefire may be extended to allow both sides to continue engagement. (Xinhua News Agency)

Odaily News The talks held in Islamabad mark the first direct meeting between the US and Iran in over a decade and the highest-level consultations between the two countries since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad in the early hours of the 11th, all dressed in black to mourn the Supreme Leader Khamenei and other victims of the war. The Iranian government stated that the delegation also brought shoes and schoolbags of some students who were tragically killed during a US military airstrike on a school adjacent to a military facility. Another Pakistani source, commenting on the first round of talks, said: "Emotions were fluctuating on both sides; the atmosphere during the talks was tense at times and eased at others." (Reference News)

Odaily News US President Trump reposted an article titled "If Iran Doesn't Compromise, the President Holds the 'Trump Card': Maritime Blockade" and republished the headline. The article stated, "If Iran refuses to accept the final agreement proposed by the US on Saturday, Trump could choose to bomb Iran back to the 'Stone Age' as he vowed. Alternatively, he might once again employ the (maritime) blockade strategy that was previously successful (in Venezuela)." (Jin10)

Odaily reported that Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, "If Iran doesn't back down, President Trump's 'trump card': a naval blockade."

Odaily According to a report by Iran's Fars News Agency on the 12th, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Iran and the United States have reached consensus on some issues, but differences remain on two or three important matters, ultimately preventing an agreement from being reached. (Xinhua News Agency)

Odaily News According to a report by Iran's Tasnim News Agency this morning (April 12) local time, citing informed sources, Iran is not in a hurry to resume negotiations with the United States. It is reported that Iran has put forward reasonable proposals in the negotiations, and now "the ball is in the US court." The United States should take a pragmatic view of the relevant issues. The informed source also stated that the US government "has made mistakes in negotiation decisions so far, just as it has made mistakes in war decisions." Iran is not in a hurry for quick results; as long as the United States does not agree to a reasonable agreement, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not change. Currently, the time and location for the next round of negotiations have not been determined. (CCTV International News)

Odaily News According to Al Jazeera, despite various efforts from all parties, the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement. There is a draft understanding on the table. Judging from Vice President Vance's statement, there is still some possibility—he stated this is their final and best offer. A source said the good news is the talks have not broken down, but the bad news is there has been no breakthrough either. It is understood that the two sides have held about five rounds of talks, with written exchanges following each round, so it seems a broader framework is already in place. Currently, there is a proposal and a counter-proposal. We need to watch for Iran's response, as the interviewed source believes the U.S. has put forward maximalist demands, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue, on which Iran is unwilling to concede.

Odaily News According to reports from Iran's Tasnim News Agency citing journalists, the Iran-U.S. negotiations have concluded with no agreement reached. Excessive demands from the United States hindered the establishment of a common framework and agreement. (Jin10)

Odaily News US Vice President Vance: After 21 hours of negotiations with Iran, no agreement has been reached yet, and Iran has chosen not to accept the US conditions. (Jin10)

Odaily News: Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei reported on the progress of negotiations with the United States in Islamabad, Pakistan, in the early hours of today (April 12) local time. According to the briefing he released, the Iran-U.S. negotiations mediated by Pakistan began on the morning of April 11 and are still ongoing. Both sides exchanged a large amount of information, and the Iranian negotiating team is "making every effort to safeguard Iran's rights and interests." The briefing stated that Iran and the U.S. discussed all aspects of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz issue, the nuclear issue, war reparations, the lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war targeting Iran and the Middle East. The briefing emphasized that the success of this diplomatic process depends on the sincerity of the U.S. side, whether the U.S. side puts forward excessive and illegal demands, and whether it accepts Iran's legitimate rights and interests. (CCTV International News)

Odaily News According to a post by US President Donald Trump, the fake news media is truly insane, or downright corrupt. The United States has completely destroyed Iran's military, including their entire navy and air force, and everything else. Their leadership is dead, the Strait of Hormuz will soon be open, and empty ships are rushing to the United States to "load up." But if you listen to the fake news, then we are losing.