In the first quarter of 2026, the crypto market experienced a historic deleveraging storm. Bitcoin retreated more than 40% from its highs, Ethereum fell even deeper, and altcoins were generally halved. This round of sharp decline was by no means solely due to a cooling market sentiment or regulatory rumors. Behind it lies the resonance of three liquidity tightening factors: the large-scale unwinding of the Yen carry trade, the withdrawal of market funds by the U.S. Treasury's TGA account rebuilding, and the systemic increase in margin requirements in the derivatives market. These factors, combined with the crypto market's own high-leverage structure and valuation bubbles, collectively triggered a stampede-like liquidation.

On February 6, 2026, China's financial regulatory system simultaneously released two highly significant policy documents: the "Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Other Matters" (Yin Fa [2026] No. 42) jointly issued by the People's Bank of China and seven other ministries, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Overseas Issuance of Asset-Backed Security Tokens by Domestic Assets" concurrently introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

In early February 2026, Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor and monetary policy hawk Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. This personnel appointment triggered significant turbulence in global financial markets, which the crypto market has dubbed the "Warsh Effect." Major cryptocurrencies experienced substantial declines, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $10 billion in a single day.

As an innovative product bridging traditional financial markets and the crypto derivatives system, stock contracts are reshaping the on-chain trading landscape at an astonishing pace.

In early 2026, the crypto market entered a period of volatility, but it is currently undergoing a stress test phase driven by escalating macro conflicts and global liquidity disturbances. The US and EU engaged in tariff threats over the sovereignty of Greenland, followed by Trump softening his stance and canceling the tariff threats. This represents a reemergence of the Trump-style TACO trade.

As institutional capital continues to increase its share in the crypto market, privacy is transforming from a marginalized demand for anonymity into a key infrastructural capability for blockchain's integration into the real-world financial system. The public transparency of blockchain was once considered its core value proposition, but as institutional participation becomes the dominant force, this characteristic is revealing structural limitations.

Entering 2026, the crypto market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. The long-repeated "four-year bull-bear cycle" is losing its explanatory power over the market, being replaced by a process of structural evolution characterized by parallel asset logics, diverging capital behaviors, and a slowing price rhythm.

The turning point for the crypto market in 2025 will not be in price, but in structure: the funding side will shift from retail investors to institutional dominance, the asset side will upgrade from the "crypto native narrative" to an on-chain dollar system centered on stablecoins and RWA, and the regulatory side will move from gray-market games to normalized global regulation.

The recent volatility in the crypto market is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather a structural adjustment caused by the superposition of three macroeconomic factors over time.

Ethereum will undergo a major upgrade called Fusaka on December 3, 2025. This is Ethereum's third milestone update since The Merge and the Dencun upgrade. It aims to significantly improve the network's scalability, reduce transaction costs, and optimize node operating efficiency. It also focuses on upgrading and optimizing functions related to account abstraction.

The crypto market has recently experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin breaking through $94,000 and stabilizing above the key level. Sentiment and liquidity have seen a temporary recovery. However, this rebound is mainly driven by improved expectations for macro liquidity, the return of funds after the panic selling, and a technical rebound, and is not enough to prove the systemic start of a bull market.

In the future, prediction markets are expected to become an "information pricing layer" embedded in social media, news, and financial terminals, while entrepreneurial and investment opportunities will mainly focus on key infrastructure areas such as rules and oracles, liquidity and capital efficiency, distribution and interaction, and compliance and AI integration.

By the end of 2025, the crypto market will be in a period of deep volatility driven by a high degree of macroeconomic factors: although Bitcoin is still in the high range of $90,000, sentiment has fallen to the level of extreme fear since the 2020 pandemic. The massive outflow of ETFs in a single day, the structural turnover of whales and retail investors selling at a loss have formed a typical "redistribution of chips" in the middle of a bull market.

This report uses the surge in Zcash (ZEC) as a starting point to systematically analyze the technological evolution, valuation repricing, and medium- to long-term investment logic of the privacy coin sector.

In November 2025, the crypto market will be at a structural turning point: after fiscal recession and peak interest rates, liquidity will flow back to the private sector, risk assets will become more differentiated, and the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) will only receive funds and not withdraw them due to the U.S. government shutdown. The balance will expand from about $800 billion to more than $1 trillion, which is equivalent to withdrawing about $200 billion of liquidity from the market and exacerbating the tightness of funds in the banking system.