TSMC 2026 Q3 Earnings Preview: Results to Be Released on October 15, Focus on AI Demand and Profit Margins

特邀专栏作者

2026-10-15 11:00 (UTC+8)

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TSMC will release its 2026 third-quarter earnings on October 15, with revenue hitting a record high and exceeding the upper end of its guidance. The market is closely watching AI chip demand, 2nm process capacity ramp-up, gross margin stability, as well as fourth-quarter outlook and capital expenditure trends, to assess TSMC's future growth potential and profitability prospects.

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TSMC (TSM) will report its third-quarter earnings on Thursday, October 15, 2026, with the earnings call scheduled to begin at 14:00 Taiwan time (02:00 U.S. Eastern Time).

Unlike most companies, TSMC has effectively already disclosed its revenue performance to the market in advance: based on its monthly revenue data, third-quarter revenue hit a record high of NT$1.494 trillion, exceeding the upper end of the company's own guidance range.

This shifts the focus of this earnings call to three questions: Will margins remain solid during the 2nm process capacity ramp-up? How strong will the fourth-quarter guidance be? Will capital expenditure continue to grow?

When will TSMC report its third-quarter 2026 earnings?

TSMC will hold its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on Thursday, October 15, 2026. The company's pre-earnings quiet period runs from October 5 to October 14. The call times across major time zones are as follows:

Taiwan / Beijing / Singapore: October 15, 14:00
India (IST): October 15, 11:30
London (BST): October 15, 07:00
U.S. Eastern Time (ET): October 15, 02:00
U.S. Pacific Time (PT): October 14, 23:00

The call will take place after the Taiwan stock market closes at 13:30 local time and before U.S. pre-market trading begins, meaning TSMC's Taiwan-listed shares and U.S.-listed ADR will both have to wait several hours for the next trading session to reflect the earnings news.

What guidance did TSMC give for the third quarter of 2026?

In its second-quarter 2026 earnings release, TSMC provided the following third-quarter guidance:

Revenue: $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, based on an assumed exchange rate of NT$32.0 per U.S. dollar
Gross margin: 65.0% to 67.0%, down from 67.7% in the second quarter
Operating margin: 56.0% to 58.0%, down from 60.3% in the second quarter

Management expects margins to decline due to cost pressures from the rapid capacity ramp-up of the 2nm process. Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said on the second-quarter earnings call that the 2nm process is expected to dilute gross margin by approximately 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half of the year.

The revenue numbers are already out: What do the monthly data show?

TSMC's reported September revenue was NT$511.86 billion, down 0.6% month-over-month and up 54.6% year-over-year.

Adding together the July, August, and September figures from TSMC's monthly revenue table, third-quarter revenue reached NT$1,494.24 billion, up 50.9% year-over-year and up 17.6% from NT$1,270.38 billion in the second quarter.

Based on the exchange rate of NT$32.0 per U.S. dollar used in TSMC's guidance, third-quarter revenue was approximately $46.7 billion, about $900 million above the upper end of the guidance range.

As a result, the real suspense on October 15 is no longer revenue, but profitability and the forward outlook.

Which earnings figures on October 15 would count as a beat?

Below are the main benchmarks the market will use to gauge performance, ranked by their potential impact on the stock price:

Gross margin: Above 67.0% would mean TSMC is absorbing the costs of the 2nm ramp-up better than originally expected; 65.0% to 67.0% would be in line with guidance; below 65.0% would mean greater margin dilution.
Fourth-quarter revenue guidance: Third-quarter revenue of approximately $46.7 billion has become the new comparison baseline. If the midpoint of the fourth-quarter guidance range is above this level, it would indicate that AI demand is still accelerating toward year-end.
Net profit: Reuters reported on October 8 that LSEG analysts expect TSMC's third-quarter net profit to rise 64% year-over-year to NT$740.8 billion.
Capital expenditure: According to the second-quarter earnings call transcript, TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget in July from $52 billion to $56 billion to $60 billion to $64 billion. Any sign of further movement toward the upper end of that range, or any early indication from management about 2027 investment plans, would be viewed as a significant signal of AI demand.
Full-year growth: On the same call, management expected 2026 U.S. dollar-denominated revenue growth to be slightly above 40%. With January-to-September NT dollar-denominated revenue already up 41.1% year-over-year, there is room for an upward revision to the full-year outlook.

Why does TSMC's earnings matter so much for AI stocks this week?

Just days before TSMC's earnings release, concerns about the financing capacity of AI infrastructure hit chip and optical communications stocks, with Lumentum and Ciena both falling about 10% on October 12.

TSMC was not spared either. On October 12, TSM's ADR closed at $444.35, down 1.98%, marking its third consecutive trading day of declines.

High-performance computing (HPC) accounted for 66% of TSMC's second-quarter revenue. Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei said on the July earnings call that advanced packaging capacity was extremely tight and had even constrained customer growth.

Therefore, TSMC's comments on AI demand, advanced packaging capacity, and capital expenditure will not only be important signals for assessing the business outlook of Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, but will also serve as a direct test of whether the AI financing concerns behind this week's selloff are justified.

MEXC market data: How TSM perpetual futures performed before earnings

The MEXC TSM/USDT perpetual contract supports 24/7 trading, including when TSMC reports earnings and both the Taiwan and U.S. stock markets are closed. The following market snapshot was recorded on October 13, 2026, at 14:19 Beijing time (02:19 U.S. Eastern Time):

Last price: $441.10, about 0.73% below the October 12 close of $444.35
24-hour price range: $440.83 to $460.15; the high occurred before the U.S. market opened on October 12, and the low occurred during the Asian trading session on October 13
Funding rate: +0.0010%, near zero, indicating no clear one-sided bias among longs and shorts ahead of the earnings call

At the time of the snapshot, the contract price was at the bottom of its 24-hour range, about 4% below the pre-U.S.-open high, reflecting how the October 12 selloff in AI hardware stocks carried over into the Asian trading session.

It is worth noting that 24/7 trading does not mean it always accurately reflects the price discovery process of the underlying stock. During U.S. non-trading hours after the earnings call, the perpetual contract price may diverge from TSM's subsequent opening price on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Frequently Asked Questions

When will TSMC release its third-quarter 2026 earnings?

TSMC will hold its third-quarter earnings call on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 02:00 U.S. Eastern Time on October 15 and 23:00 U.S. Pacific Time on October 14.

What is TSMC's revenue guidance for the third quarter of 2026?

TSMC originally expected third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Based on the already-reported monthly revenue data and the guidance exchange rate, third-quarter revenue was approximately $46.7 billion, already above the upper end of the guidance range.

What gross margin is TSMC expected to report for the third quarter?

TSMC expects third-quarter gross margin of 65.0% to 67.0%, down from 67.7% in the second quarter, mainly due to dilution from the 2nm process ramp-up. If the actual gross margin is above 67.0%, it would mean the company exceeded its guidance.

How will TSMC's earnings affect Nvidia and other AI stocks?

TSMC manufactures most leading AI chips, so its fourth-quarter guidance and capital expenditure plans will be viewed by the market as important signals for gauging AI demand at companies such as Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, especially after the October 12 selloff in AI hardware stocks.