BitMart Research Weekly Hotspot: Global Liquidity Focuses on the AI Theme, Crypto Market Holds Ground and Watches

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Easing Tensions in the Middle East: Phase-Specific De-escalation of Tail Risks

Last week, the market was highly concerned about the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Former President Trump even canceled plans to attend his child's wedding, the Pentagon pizza tracker index saw an unusual spike, and the market broadly entered a pricing phase of "impending war," with oil prices surging and global risk assets clearly under pressure. However, the situation subsequently showed signs of rapid de-escalation. The two sides eventually reached a preliminary framework agreement and agreed to extend the negotiation window by approximately 60 days, temporarily removing the tail risk of a full-scale Middle East conflict.

As risk sentiment improved, US stocks regained strength, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both setting new cycle highs. From the current perspective, geopolitical dynamics are gradually shifting from "maximum pressure" to a "long-term standoff." The general market consensus is that large-scale military action is now a low-probability event, with future focus likely to shift to ongoing negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, security arrangements, and sanctions. Barring any new unexpected incidents, the disruptive impact of geopolitics on risk assets is expected to gradually diminish.

1.2 AI Tech Stocks: Bubble in the Mid-to-Late Stage, but Short-Term Trend Remains Strong

Global risk assets continue to be driven primarily by the AI narrative. Stock markets in the US, Japan, and South Korea have been steadily strengthening. The South Korean market, in particular, has maintained significant upward momentum, led by AI industry chain players like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Internal market discussions regarding the bubble phase of AI are also notably intensifying.

Some quantitative institutions, referencing indicators from the Nasdaq bubble of 2000, assess that AI tech stocks have entered the mid-to-late stages of a bubble. Models suggest that over the next approximately 3 months, AI tech stocks may still maintain upward momentum with low drawdowns, offering potentially considerable average returns. However, the risk-reward ratio over the next 1 to 3 years is beginning to deteriorate significantly, with the probability of high volatility and deep corrections rising.

Nevertheless, a key difference from the 2000 internet bubble is that the current AI infrastructure sector has not yet shown significant overcapacity. Segments like computing power, storage, bandwidth, and energy are still in a phase of continuous expansion, meaning the industry's fundamentals remain robust. The primary bubble exists more in the secondary market valuations. The market has already priced in several years of future profit expectations in advance, with valuations of many AI leaders reflecting growth potential over the next 2 to 5 years. If future earnings fall short of expectations, or if capital expenditure pressures exceed cash flow capabilities, market volatility could significantly amplify.

1.3 SpaceX IPO and Q4 AI Bubble Stress Test

The market is beginning to focus on several potential key risk nodes, including the continued expansion of capital expenditures by tech giants, future IPOs of high-valuation AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and SpaceX's anticipated large-scale IPO in June.

SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history, with the market potentially valuing it between $1.5 to $2 trillion and targeting a fundraising size of approximately $75 billion. While its long-term narratives around space data centers and Mars colonization offer immense potential, the company remains in a loss-making state, and xAI's cash burn rate is extremely high. Consequently, the market is essentially valuing SpaceX based on a "deep out-of-the-money call option" logic, rather than traditional cash flow models.

If SpaceX's listing creates a significant liquidity suction effect, it could prematurely trigger a phase of adjustment for AI tech stocks. The general market belief is that starting from the end of Q3, the risk-reward ratio for AI tech stocks will notably worsen, and Q4 could enter a period of high volatility with sharp rises and falls. However, given the current global capital's intense concentration on the AI narrative, the AI industry chain remains the strongest consensus for funds in the short term.

1.4 Potential Shift in the Fed's Framework: Volatility May Rise Again

Recent content from the Kevin Warsh hearings has also captured market attention. His statements indicate notable differences from the Federal Reserve's framework under Chair Powell. These differences include opposition to the traditional QE/QT framework, a de-emphasis on forward guidance, and a greater focus on the market's own penalty and reward mechanisms.

The market fears that if the Fed gradually reduces its active smoothing of market fluctuations, the volatility (VIX) that has been suppressed in recent years could rebound. Additionally, the market is starting to focus on whether the US might adjust its inflation statistical framework in the future. If real inflation reignites while the Fed lags in its response, the bond market might begin to price in the risk of the Fed falling "behind the curve" on inflation.

Overall, expectations are strengthening that the Fed's policy transparency will decrease and market volatility will re-expand in the future.

II. Cryptocurrency Market

2.1 BTC Oscillates Weakly; Market Capital Still Concentrated in AI Assets

Despite the easing of geopolitical risks boosting a rebound in global risk assets, the overall performance of the Crypto market remains notably weaker than that of AI tech stocks. Currently, the main flow of market capital remains concentrated in the AI industry chain, with no significant signs of "profit-taking from AI spilling over into Crypto."

The recent strategic moves by major exchanges also reveal this trend. Areas including Prediction Markets, US equity contracts, and AI-related assets are becoming new focal points, while the narrative heat around traditional altcoins continues to decline. In this cycle, the capital relationship between Crypto and AI differs markedly from previous bull runs. There hasn't been a significant liquidity spillover effect, prompting the market to remain generally cautious towards small-to-mid-cap altcoins.

2.2 ETF and Derivatives Data: Market Sentiment Turns Bearish Again

ETF flows continue to weaken. This week saw a net outflow of approximately $1.18 billion from BTC ETFs, accompanied by a simultaneous decline in overall trading volume, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite.

Regarding on-chain and derivatives data, BTC Open Interest declined along with the price. Funding Rates, which were significantly negative, have turned positive again as some short positions began to close. However, the spot CVD remains weak, suggesting limited recovery in active buying pressure.

Options market sentiment has also turned bearish again. The Deribit Skew has risen back to around 16%, with Put option premiums returning to relatively extreme levels, clearly indicating increased demand for hedging. Overall, the Crypto market currently lacks new incremental capital drivers.

2.3 MicroStrategy Continues to Accumulate; ETH Retains Tech Narrative

MicroStrategy is suspected to have increased its holdings again this week by approximately 30,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings close to 840,000 BTC. Compared to earlier periods, the pace of its recent purchases has notably intensified. Some market views suggest that, at its core, MicroStrategy is continuously betting on the long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit.

Despite its recent price performance lagging behind BTC, ETH retains some attributes of a "tech asset," including the potential for integration between its on-chain ecosystem, AI, and smart contract innovation. This continues to attract institutional capital allocation. For instance, BMNR increased its ETH holdings this week by approximately 70,000 ETH.

In comparison, BTC currently leans more towards being a macro asset, while ETH still carries part of the tech growth narrative.

2.4 Long-Term Perspective: Crypto May See a True Opportunity After AI Bubble Release

The most prominent feature of the current market remains that "AI stands alone." Traditional stocks, altcoins, and most risk assets are continuously having their liquidity siphoned away by the AI sector.

Some market participants believe that the truly opportune time for large-scale deployment into Crypto might come after the AI tech sector undergoes a systematic "valuation reset." If the AI bubble undergoes a phase of clearing, BTC could potentially experience a significant pullback simultaneously. Paradoxically, this could form an important bottoming zone for a new Crypto cycle.

Overall, we are still in a phase where AI dominates global liquidity, and the Crypto market temporarily lacks an independent primary narrative for upward movement.

This article is purely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.