BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: China-US Summit Sets the Tone for Stabilization, Crypto Regulation Breakthroughs Coincide with Market Pullback

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Stabilization, Not Normalization

From May 14-15, Trump met with Xi Jinping in Beijing, accompanied by entrepreneurs including Musk, Cook, and Huang Renxun. The market had high expectations for a substantial breakthrough in Sino-US trade relations, but the final outcome fell short of overall expectations. Publicly announced results were primarily focused on Boeing aircraft orders and China's verbal commitments to purchase certain agricultural products. No significant substantive concessions were observed on core issues such as Taiwan and Iran.

A more valuable behind-the-scenes outcome was that, following the summit, the U.S. approved the export of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to approximately 10 Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. This reopened a previously largely closed export window to China for Nvidia. However, the scope was limited to the H200 model only, not newer versions, representing a limited relaxation overall.

Market reactions were initially bullish before turning bearish. Before the summit, U.S. stocks briefly hit new highs, but after the summit results were disclosed, profit-taking set in, leading to a notable correction in the Nasdaq and the AI chip supply chain. Overall, this summit was closer to "stabilization" than "normalization," and the substantive removal of Sino-US tariffs and technology restrictions remains a distant prospect.

1.2 Iran Negotiations Collapse and High Oil Price Volatility

On May 11, Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal, calling it "unacceptable." Iran's proposal included demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz, security guarantees, compensation, and the lifting of sanctions, which diverged significantly from the U.S.'s core requirements. This led the market to reprice Middle East supply risks. Oil prices subsequently jumped, with both Brent and WTI remaining at high levels. The combination of Strait of Hormuz restrictions and the negotiation stalemate limits the downside for short-term oil prices.

However, as of May 18, a brief diplomatic window emerged. Trump stated he had postponed a planned large-scale strike on Iran because Gulf allies believed a peace agreement was still possible. Oil prices consequently declined, but the Middle East risk has not been resolved. The pattern of high oil prices suppressing global risk appetite persists.

### 1.3 AI Tech Stocks: Short-Term Correction, Medium-to-Long-Term Divergence

In the short term, the correction in AI tech stocks this week primarily stems from summit results falling short of expectations, rising treasury yields, and profit-taking after significant prior gains. This is more of a technical correction than a fundamental reversal. The approval of H200 chip exports to China is a tangible positive for Nvidia. The focus should be on tracking the pace of license grants and actual shipment volumes.

Another short-term risk comes from a potential SpaceX IPO and expectations of its rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. If SpaceX is listed and quickly added to the index, passive funds may need to sell part of their existing heavyweight positions to make room for the new component, creating temporary liquidity pressure on top tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

In the medium term, the July earnings season will be a key verification window for AI tech stocks. The market's pricing logic is shifting from narrative-driven to hard-data-driven. Investors will focus more on AI's ROI, commercialization efficiency, and profit realization capabilities. The valuation system has entered the second half, where projects driven solely by narratives will face greater pressure.

In the long term, the year-end could become a critical test phase for the AI bubble. If high-valuation AI application companies like OpenAI and Anthropic push forward with IPOs, it could drain liquidity from the secondary market. If corporate capital expenditure continues to exceed cash flow, relying on debt to sustain investments, AI stocks could enter a stress test phase in the later stages of a bubble. Currently, the AI industry chain's value capture follows the cycle: "Computing Power → Bandwidth → Storage → Energy Consumption." The strong performance of the storage sector reflects this logic.

II. Crypto Market Performance and Ecosystem

2.1 Market Overview: BTC Retreats, ETF Inflow Trend Interrupted

BTC retreated from around $82,000 to approximately $77,000 this week, primarily impacted by the underwhelming outcome of the Sino-US summit, rising oil prices, and a decline in global risk appetite. ETH performed weaker during the same period, with the ETH/BTC ratio declining further, indicating capital still prefers BTC rather than actively rotating into mainstream altcoins.

A significant inflection point occurred in ETF fund flows. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF ended its previous six-week streak of net inflows, recording approximately $1 billion in net outflows over the past week. On May 13 alone, daily outflows were around $635 million, one of the largest single-day outflows in recent months. Notably, IBIT also saw significant outflows on that day, so it cannot be simply understood as redemptions limited to smaller ETFs. However, from a long-term allocation perspective, BlackRock's IBIT remains one of the core products.

The current core support zone for BTC is $78,000 – $80,000. If this zone holds, there is still room for bullish sentiment to recover. If it is decisively broken, short-term risk appetite may weaken further.

2.2 Regulatory Breakthrough: CLARITY Act Enters Critical Stage

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15 to 9 on May 14, garnering support from some Democratic senators, indicating a degree of bipartisan foundation. The bill aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset market structure and has advanced to a full Senate vote, marking significant progress for U.S. digital asset legislation.

If subsequent legislative progress proceeds smoothly, the compliance pathway for U.S. digital assets will become clearer. The allocation demand from traditional institutions, previously delayed due to regulatory uncertainty, could be gradually released. Regulatory clarity will become an important variable providing medium-to-long-term support for the Crypto market.

2.3 Circle, Stablecoins, and the Trend of Institutional Chain Launches

Circle's recent market performance remains under scrutiny. While its financial reports show mixed results, the Arc blockchain token presale became a core highlight: Arc completed approximately $222 million in funding, corresponding to a valuation of around $3 billion. Investors include a16z crypto, BlackRock, Apollo, ICE, and ARK Invest. Arc is positioned as an institutional-grade Layer-1 public chain for stablecoin settlement, cross-border payments, and tokenized assets.

Circle thus forms a dual-track model of "Listed Entity + Proprietary Chain + Token Issuance." On one hand, it gains compliance endorsement and access to traditional capital market funds through its public company status. On the other hand, it captures Crypto market liquidity and enjoys the dual premium of equity valuation and token valuation through its chain and token.

This model has already set a precedent. Projects with payment use cases, user bases, or social ecosystems may follow a similar path in the future. Stablecoin infrastructure, institutional proprietary chains, and compliant payment networks remain among the most structurally supported directions in the current Crypto market.

This article is solely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.