BitMart Research Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran De-escalation and Fed's Hawkish Shift Drive Crypto Market Rebound and Bottoming
- Core View: Easing macro-geopolitical risks and improving policy expectations are driving a rebound in risk assets. The overall outlook for the crypto market is optimistic but structurally divergent, with institutional capital continuing to flow into Bitcoin, while altcoins carry higher risks.
- Key Factors:
- On the macro front, the de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions coincides with a hawkish shift from the Fed. However, persistently high oil prices could push up core inflation in the coming months, increasing policy uncertainty.
- The crypto market overall benefits from the recovery in U.S. stock market risk appetite and expectations for the passage of U.S. crypto legislation (the Clarity Act). However, some long-term indicators suggest the market may still be in a volatile bottoming phase of a bear market.
- Bitcoin has formed a relatively solid support level near $60,000, seen as a potential interim bottom. In contrast, the altcoin market lacks fundamental support, exhibiting characteristics of strong manipulation and high volatility.
- Fund flows show that Bitcoin ETFs have recently maintained net inflows (e.g., a single-day inflow of $421 million). MicroStrategy recently added approximately 14,000 BTC, indicating institutional willingness for long-term positioning.
- At the micro-trading level, spot active buying volume remains high. However, funding rates in the perpetual futures market are negative, and panic sentiment in the options market has not expanded, reflecting complex market sentiment.
I. Macro Level
Geopolitics and US Stock Market Performance
Signs of easing have emerged in the US-Iran conflict, with the divergence in negotiations being smaller than market expectations, driving a rapid recovery in risk asset prices, including crude oil. Against this backdrop, coupled with pressure from the US election and expectations of a potential thaw in US-China trade relations, US stocks, particularly those in the AI upstream supply chain and individual stocks like Oracle, have experienced a strong oversold rebound. Currently, upward recovery remains the path of least resistance. However, geopolitical tail risks remain high, making trading still challenging.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (FOMC)
The latest FOMC meeting minutes reveal that internal divisions within the Fed have widened further compared to the past, with the "rate hike" option explicitly included in discussions, indicating a somewhat hawkish shift in the overall stance. Nevertheless, most members still prioritize the fragile balance in the labor market, and the market generally expects the actual probability of a rate hike this year to remain low.
Inflation Data (CPI) and Potential Inflation Risks
The overall CPI for March rose significantly, driven by energy prices, but the core CPI was slightly below expectations, suggesting that the pass-through of energy prices to core goods and services is not yet significant. However, if oil prices remain persistently high above $80, they are likely to gradually feed into supercore inflation over the next 3 to 6 months. This could not only pose upside risks to inflation data in the coming months but also potentially push the Fed's stance further towards hawkishness. Additionally, due to base effects from the same period last year, next month's housing rent data might show an abnormal spike.
II. Cryptocurrency Level
Overall Market Trend and General Outlook
In the recent rebound, while BTC and ETH have not been as prominent as during the previous resilient phase, they have generally followed the US stock market's recovery. Benefiting from the overall recovery in risk appetite in US stocks and sustained policy tailwinds such as the increasing likelihood of crypto legislation (e.g., the Clarity Act) being passed, the overall outlook for the Crypto market this year remains optimistic. However, some long-cycle macro indicators (such as Glassnode data) suggest that the current market may still be in a bear market phase or oscillating within the bottom range of a bear market, aligning with Glassnode strategists' assessment of the market cycle.
Divergence Between BTC, ETH, and Altcoins
There is still some disagreement in the market regarding Bitcoin's bottom, but the support level around $60,000 is relatively solid—this level was quickly established due to fund liquidations, giving it some reference value. It is expected to become a staged bottom for the next upward trend and is being closely watched by various market participants. In contrast, the altcoin market overall lacks fundamental support, exhibiting more characteristics of being "dominated by strong hands." It primarily relies on contract liquidations and funding rate arbitrage for profits, with high price volatility, placing retail investors at a clear disadvantage. Therefore, the meeting suggested shifting the allocation focus more towards BTC and ETH at this stage to enhance the robustness of the strategy.
Micro Trading Data and Capital Flows
Spot and Futures: Overall spot trading volume remains low, but the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains high, reflecting active participation by some "smart money" in the rebound. Meanwhile, catalyzed by factors like geopolitics, trading activity in the futures market has increased. Overall funding rates are negative (meaning shorts pay longs), while the options market shows that panic sentiment has not expanded further.
Institutional Capital: Bitcoin ETFs saw overall net inflows last week, with a single-day net inflow reaching $421 million. Looking at recent Bitcoin ETF trends, they have maintained a pattern of volatile net inflows, reflecting institutional willingness for long-term positioning in crypto assets. Concurrently, MicroStrategy has significantly accelerated its buying pace recently, purchasing nearly 14,000 BTC in the recent phase, further increasing its cumulative holdings and continuing its long-term strategy of accumulating Bitcoin.
This article is for market trend analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset investment carries high risks. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear the associated risks themselves.
