US-Iran Temporary Ceasefire, BTC Soars Past $72,000, Future Outlook Raises Concerns

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Last night, US President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, stating that "the entire civilization will be destroyed tonight" and hinting at possible military action before Tuesday. However, just as the market was holding its breath, he suddenly announced today that he would suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

This unexpected turn of events instantly ignited the entire crypto market, leading to a long-awaited significant rebound.

OKX market data shows that in the early hours of today, BTC rose from $67,700 to above $72,000, a 24-hour increase of 4.01%; ETH also climbed from $2,060 to above $2,270, a 24-hour gain of 6.03%; SOL rose from $78 to $87, a 24-hour increase of 5.92%.

Coinglass data shows that over the past 12 hours, the market saw liquidations totaling $530 million, with short position liquidations as high as $402 million and long position liquidations at $129 million. Additionally, nearly 120,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

Besides the brief easing of US-Iran tensions, what other hidden variables truly ignited the market? After the surge, is the crypto market at the starting point of a reversal, or is it just a flash in the pan? Odaily will break it down one by one in this article, helping you understand this covert battle of sentiment and capital.

US-Iran Ceasefire Window is Brief with Difficult-to-Meet Conditions; Subsequent Rebound May Be Hindered

Although the US-Iran ceasefire officially took effect at 8:00 AM Beijing time today, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited representatives from both sides to Islamabad for negotiations, the market remains highly skeptical about the sustainability of this ceasefire. The conditions for the ceasefire announced by Iran's Supreme National Security Council are extremely high, including that the Strait of Hormuz must be under controlled passage led by Iran, the US must withdraw troops from all bases in the region, all sanctions must be lifted and overseas assets unfrozen, full compensation for war losses must be paid, and it must ultimately be confirmed through a UN Security Council resolution. Iran also stated that it has "complete distrust" of the US side, emphasizing that it will not negotiate under threats or deadlines.

Trump has repeatedly issued deadline threats but then suspended or extended actions, keeping the market highly alert to whether "this ceasefire is real." Furthermore, Israel's "The Times of Israel" reported on the 8th, citing a security official, that "Israel is still striking Iran" despite the announced US-Iran ceasefire, indicating that significant uncertainty remains in the regional situation.

In the short term, the crypto market's rebound relies mainly on short squeezes and instantaneous risk appetite recovery, not trend confirmation. Skepticism is already evident in the market, with frequent comments on platform X such as "the ceasefire won't last 24 hours" and "it's just wordplay." If negotiations fail within the two-week window, or if risk events like missile attacks or Israeli military actions occur, the conflict could escalate again at any time.

Therefore, this morning's rebound looks more like an event-driven, phased recovery rather than a confirmed bottom.

Bitcoin ETF Funds Recover: Outflows Halted in March, Net Inflows Continue in April

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown a clear divergence in trends since 2026.

From January to February, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced continuous outflows, with a net outflow of approximately $1.6 billion in January and about $206 million in February, putting significant pressure on the crypto market at the beginning of the year. Entering March, Bitcoin spot ETF funds saw a strong return, with a net inflow of $1.32 billion for the month. This not only ended the previous four consecutive months of outflows but also marked the first positive monthly inflow in 2026, and the first since October 2025.

In April, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have continued the net inflow trend. On April 6th, the single-day net inflow reached $471 million, the highest single-day inflow since February 25th and the sixth-largest single-day inflow in 2026. Specifically, BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of approximately $182 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with about $147 million, and ARK 21Shares' ARKB with about $119 million. Most other ETFs recorded positive inflows or remained flat.

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on platform X, stating that US "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly poured significant funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs despite a pressured market environment and frequent macro headwinds. This inflow has, to some extent, filled the funding gap that existed since the beginning of the year.

Views on the Crypto Market Outlook

Bloomberg Analyst: Unless Bitcoin Can Reclaim $75,000, the Risk of Falling to Lower Levels Remains

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated that unless Bitcoin can reclaim $75,000, the risk of falling to lower levels remains. If the current price cannot stabilize above $70,000, it will face renewed downward pressure from a loss of confidence among short-term holders.

Glassnode: Bitcoin's Resistance is Around $72,000; If Momentum Weakens, Downside Risk is High

Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin's current resistance is around $72,000, while support below is relatively thin. Once upward momentum weakens, the risk of price decline remains. Additionally, the rebound momentum has improved, spot demand has stabilized, and selling pressure from losses has significantly decreased. However, participation remains soft across exchanges, ETFs, and on-chain metrics, indicating that market confidence has not fully returned.

Analyst Wedson: Bitcoin May Test the $54,000 Range Within the Next 5 Months

Crypto market analyst Wedson stated that Bitcoin's 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index has fallen into an extremely bearish zone, suggesting that long-term market fear may be nearing its end. Historically, lows in such indicators are often accompanied by a so-called "final shakeout," after which Bitcoin enters a more robust rebound phase. For example, when this indicator was low in 2022, Bitcoin fell over 20%; in a similar situation in 2018, Bitcoin fell about 50%.

Wedson warned that Bitcoin could experience a sharp drop of approximately $15,000 over the next five months, meaning BTC could fall from its current price to around the $54,000 price zone. Therefore, the $50,000–$55,000 range could be a key support area for Bitcoin. Nevertheless, recent large Bitcoin purchases by Strategy have absorbed some selling pressure, potentially limiting the downside and making an extreme bearish scenario not entirely inevitable.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin May Fall Below $60,000 Before Rising to $250,000

Arthur Hayes stated on the Coin Stories podcast that he would not put his last dollar into Bitcoin at the moment because the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity. He believes tariff policies will lead to inflation and may prompt the US to turn to capital controls, which would be a huge liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes maintains his long-term target price for Bitcoin this cycle between $250,000 and $750,000 but warned that if the US-Iran conflict persists, Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the short term.

Greeks.live: The Market is Becoming Desensitized to Trump; There's Little Consensus, Everyone is Waiting.

Greeks.live stated that the market is becoming desensitized to Trump. Bitcoin's implied volatility has significantly decreased compared to last week. Although Trump will certainly make market-impacting statements next, no matter what he says, even if he says he will send ground troops tomorrow, it won't deviate from market expectations. Currently, Skew and trading distribution changes are relatively scattered; there's little consensus in the market, everyone is waiting.