BitMart Research Weekly Hotspots: Macro Hawkishness Combined with Middle East Stalemate, Crypto Market Resilience Builds Foundation Awaiting Clarity

I. Macro Level

1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Oil Price Transmission
2. The Middle East situation is expected to maintain a "fight while talking" posture, with no substantial easing likely in the next 2–4 weeks. Driven by election considerations, Trump intends to push for a cooling of tensions in the first half of the year to avoid high oil prices and pressure on the stock market. If risks to key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz escalate, oil prices will be more prone to rise than fall. The probability of the US launching a direct ground war is low; it prefers proxy interventions and controlling energy channels. A 10% rise in oil prices typically pushes inflation up by about 0.5% and suppresses GDP growth by 0.1%–0.2%. The market may be underestimating the chain risks of stagflation or even recession.
3. Global Monetary Policy Hawkish Repricing
4. Central banks including the Fed, ECB, and BoE have collectively turned hawkish. The FOMC meeting had a hawkish tone: the dot plot showed an increase in members supporting only one rate cut this year, inflation expectations were revised upwards, Powell downplayed signals of a weakening labor market, and even the relatively dovish official Waller supported pausing rate cuts. The market is beginning to price in the possibility of "no rate cuts or even further hikes."
5. Policy divergence between the US and Europe: Europe is more sensitive to imported inflation from oil prices. Sustained oil prices above $100 could force the ECB to hike rates. The US, however, would likely require oil prices to remain above $130 for an extended period before considering rate hikes again. US Treasury yields are showing a "bear steepening" pattern.
6. Diverging Views on Stagflation and Recession Risks
7. One view argues that questionable non-farm payroll data, inflation persistently above the 2% target, and external shocks make the US economy vulnerable to stagflation or even recession, a risk not fully priced in by the market. The other view holds that the US is now a net energy exporter, making a repeat of 1970s-style stagflation from high oil prices alone unlikely. The greater risks stem from fiscal expansion and the erosion of Fed independence. If key straits are blocked long-term and the Fed maintains or even tightens its hawkish stance, the market narrative could shift from "stagflation trades" to "recession trades."
8. Traditional Asset Performance and Hedging Strategies
9. Gold has retreated significantly under tightening expectations and liquidity pressures, with its safe-haven attributes temporarily failing. A pattern of rising oil prices and the US dollar alongside a broad decline in risk assets has emerged, breaking traditional asset correlations and causing macro hedging strategies to experience drawdowns. The AI sector faces valuation overheating, and if capital expenditures fail to translate into profits, there is pressure for valuation contraction.
10. Hedging suggestions: Allocate to VIX-related positions, natural gas, and fertilizer stocks as defensive tools. After weathering a 1–3 month volatile period, risk assets may see a recovery opportunity in the second half of the year.

II. Cryptocurrency Level

1. Market Trend and Relative Resilience
2. Against the backdrop of global risk asset pressure, BTC has shown stronger relative resilience than gold, consolidating around the $70,000 range after retreating from $76,000. Current spot and futures trading volumes are sluggish, while the options market is relatively active. Put option skew is rising, indicating increased market risk aversion and panic sentiment.
3. Divergence in Institutional Fund Flows
4. MicroStrategy's pace of Bitcoin accumulation has noticeably cooled, with weekly additions dropping to around 1,000 BTC. However, other institutions continue large-scale purchases of ETH, averaging about 60,000 ETH per week. BTC spot ETFs overall maintained slight net inflows but turned to slight net outflows this week. The ETF holdings' MVRV is around 1.07, indicating the price is approaching the overall cost basis for institutional holdings.
5. On-Chain and Derivatives Signals
6. The profit level for long-term holders has fallen back to the consolidation range seen at the bottom of the last cycle, suggesting the most rapid phase of the market decline may be over, with a gradual bottoming process beginning. Short-term holders took profits around $76,000, creating periodic selling pressure.
7. Spot CVD is negative, indicating dominant active selling. However, futures open interest slightly increased against the downtrend, and perpetual funding rates remain persistently negative. Short positions are relatively crowded, creating the possibility of a short-term technical short squeeze rebound.
8. Regulatory Tailwinds and Market Outlook
9. The Clarity Act, a crypto regulatory bill, faces reduced resistance in the Senate, with its probability of passing rising to 80%–90%. The banking system is expected to relax restrictions, allowing users indirect access to yield-bearing stablecoin products, opening channels for traditional institutional capital entry.

• Short-term: Be wary of a technical short squeeze rebound due to crowded short positions.
• Mid-term: The network's overall unrealized profit level remains higher than the bottom of the last bear market. Before profitable positions are sufficiently cleared, the market still needs time to solidify a bottom, with the possibility of a secondary decline.

This article is solely for market trend analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset investment carries high risks. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear the associated risks independently.