Odaily Editorial Team Tea Talk (March 4th)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the authors share their immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their peripheral details; they explore investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—these may not be direct wealth codes, but perhaps just the questions themselves; they share observations gained from exchanges with industry practitioners; and materials that have genuinely enhanced our cognition, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to manufacture consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Discussion Group, X Official Account) to exchange, question, and banter together.

Asher (X: @Asher_ 0210 )

Introduction: Mainly plays prediction markets, doesn't touch derivatives at all, and has no desire to buy spot.

Sharing: Since the Lunar New Year, I've barely opened any exchange apps. My focus has mainly been on interacting with hot projects in the prediction market sector:

Top projects Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi is directly abandoned as non-US users cannot complete KYC. Although Polymarket has airdrop expectations, it currently lacks a points system or other incentive mechanisms, making it difficult to assess potential returns. Since the vast majority of event market trading on the platform still has 0 fees, the main interaction method currently is still to hedge positions from other platforms.

Although Opinion collectively got "reverse-rug-pulled," I still believe a prediction market project can succeed on BNB Chain. Opinion has been heavily criticized by early users these past two days. The airdrop share was only 3.5%, with each point's airdrop value being about $6, but many users' point cost was around $10–15, almost a total reverse-rug-pull for everyone. Even more outrageous is that many top-ranked whales who genuinely contributed significant transaction fees were ultimately judged as Sybils. This move basically crashed the sentiment in the prediction market sector of the BNB Chain ecosystem, with TVL collectively plummeting. However, I still believe in and interact with dingaling's predict.fun, whose current TVL is $15 million. According to community news, major moves are planned starting this week. I'm looking forward to seeing if it can attract users from Opinion.

Ding Dang: Ding Dang DD (@XiaMiPP)

Introduction: A pure, green-leek retail investor~

Sharing: Three altcoins I've been paying attention to recently: MORPHO, VVV, and POWER.

I've written articles about MORPHO and VVV respectively, both having fundamental changes. The most important positive for MORPHO is that Wall Street asset management giant Apollo announced plans to gradually purchase 90 million tokens over the next 48 months, representing real buy-side demand. Technically, MORPHO is now on the right side of a rounding bottom, showing strong trend reversal signals. But I noticed it a bit late.

VVV happens to be catching the "era dividend" of AI Agents. On one hand, the project team is actively reducing supply; on the other hand, API demand is exploding, and the tokenomics are entering a healthy cycle. Additionally, a more important point is that signs of strong whale manipulation have appeared on the contracts. The momentum for long positions on the contracts is still very strong, and no large-scale long liquidations have been seen yet, so it's worth further observation.

POWER is a completely whale-managed token, and that phase should be over now. Whale-managed tokens rise sharply and fall the hardest. Trying to profit from them is like licking blood off a knife's edge.

Wenser (X: @wenser2010 )

Introduction: Crypto abstractionist, crypto circle entertainer, sharp-tongued critic

Sharing: 1. Since the start of the year, crypto-stock concept assets have still moved in step with the broader crypto market, summarized as having finished their pump. Except for Circle, which nearly doubled due to earnings report + short squeeze + revenue expectations and still has potential to reach around $110, only some mining companies transitioning to AI show any upward momentum in their stock prices. The rest are all underperformers. To put it bluntly, crypto-concept stocks in the market, especially DAT stocks, are like: the US stock market rises broadly, I don't; the US stock market crashes, I crash too; when the war just started, I dipped a little; as the war continues, I crash hard; when gold falls, I still fall; when Bitcoin rebounds, I still fall. The only rebound was because BTC's rebound slightly lifted BTC treasury valuations, then continued to fall. In short, cherish your life, don't try to catch the bottom, only engage in short-term operations betting on rebounds, and never fall for the "value investment" trap in the crypto circle again.

2. Regarding prediction markets, the Oscars are a major event concluding soon. It's recommended to closely follow critic weekly reports and any movement on X. Currently, the odds seem higher for awards related to "The War to End All Wars" and "The Guilty";

3. Recommend an article about post-AGI. It's relatively basic, but the topic is interesting: Debate Between the World's Strongest AI Godfathers: When Will True AGI Arrive? Which Professions Will Be Eliminated First?

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction: Still learning, still a noob.

Sharing: Very few recent operations. Besides focusing on wealth management, one rare proactive move was buying CRCL at 52-58 in mid-February. The logic was betting that stablecoins are a necessity for payments in the AI era, and Circle is currently the only heavyweight player with existing布局. USDC would have a first-mover advantage in that market similar to USDT's in the Crypto market—to put it bluntly, it's about moving beyond conservative profit valuation thinking and paying for the vision. However, subsequent developments exceeded initial expectations. CRCL rebounded too quickly in the short term due to strong earnings, so I'm considering partially reducing the position.

Another slower-paced activity is farming Polymarket's LP subsidies, essentially enriching interaction behavior—less than 30% of addresses have received at least $1 in LP rewards. In practice, it's quite doable. The core strategy is to identify markets with high subsidies and low competition, and also manage risk control well after one-sided limit orders get filled.