Weekly Editor's Picks (0221-0227)
- Core Viewpoints: This week's selected articles analyze the core issues of the current crypto industry from multiple dimensions including investment, technology, and regulation. Topics covered include the real impact of institutional entry, structural changes in L1 value capture, the exploration of compliance for prediction markets, breakthrough progress in stablecoin regulation, and the future direction of Ethereum scaling.
- Key Elements:
- Institutional entry aims to convert the crypto economy into a fee stream for their assets under management, not merely to take over positions, which may lead to value flowing from on-chain to traditional finance.
- The value capture of L1s (e.g., ETH, SOL) is being systematically compressed due to innovative competition, which is a structural outcome of open networks, not a cyclical phenomenon.
- The U.S. SEC has issued guidance on a "2% discount" net capital treatment for payment-type stablecoins, clearing a key regulatory hurdle for traditional financial institutions to hold stablecoins.
- The future direction of Ethereum scaling includes "Based Rollup" based on the mainnet to achieve synchronous composability, as well as structural developments like account abstraction, privacy, and AI agents.
- Prediction market ETFs are tentatively entering the mainstream; their core challenge lies in regulatory concerns over the "gamblification" of finance and potential price manipulation risks.
- The core bottleneck for RWA (Real World Asset) exchange development is not the tokenization of assets, but the tokenization of legal liability, clearing, and default handling systems.
- The rise of AI Agents is reshaping payment infrastructure, with the key divergence being whether payments are controlled by centralized platforms or executed by open protocols.
"Weekly Editor's Picks" is a functional column by Odaily. In addition to covering a large volume of timely information each week, Odaily also publishes many high-quality in-depth analysis pieces, but they might be buried in the news feed and trending topics, passing you by.
Therefore, our editorial team will select some worthwhile articles from the past 7 days every Saturday—pieces deserving of your time to read and bookmark. From data analysis, industry insights, and opinion sharing, we aim to bring new inspiration to you in the crypto world.
Now, let's read together:
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Institutional Adoption Isn't Here to Build, But to Drain Crypto's Blood
Institutions have finally "entered crypto"—but they're not here to buy you out. They're here to turn the crypto economy into a fee-generating machine for their AUM (Assets Under Management) accumulation.
Crypto projects need to keep economic value on-chain fast enough, rather than letting it continuously leak into the hands of TradFi.
BTC's "Narrative Crisis": Bloomberg is Right, But Only Half Right
There's an implicit logic throughout the Bloomberg article: Bitcoin's value comes from the narrative functions it plays. These functions are being taken away by other things, so Bitcoin's value is eroding. In the short term, this makes sense, but it pits "transfer" and "sedimentation" as opposing forces.
A more important line in the article is: "Bitcoin spot ETFs have already made Bitcoin a permanent fixture in investment portfolios." The holder structure is shifting from "casino regulars" to "asset allocators."
Researchers see narrative failure and call it a crisis. Allocators see narrative failure and call it valuation normalization. Both perspectives are incomplete.
Major drawdowns and troughs are an inevitable part of any technology investment. While the banking industry's acceptance of Bitcoin is progressing steadily, it's much slower than those with short attention spans expect. Banks need four, five, or even six years to accept this new asset class. Yet people expect Bitcoin to gain recognition in four months. The immature credit system and rehypothecation mechanisms have created massive selling pressure, suppressing Bitcoin's price.
MicroStrategy uses equity; it's not buying with loans. Essentially, it's just conducting a permanent, risk-free asset swap—exchanging equity for Bitcoin. So, the core question isn't the cost price, but whether this swap is profitable for shareholders.
The real focus should be on the time horizon: "If we have a 10 to 30-year window to prove ourselves right, then our average purchase price actually has no substantive impact."
L1 Value Capture Shrinks Dramatically, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks
Whether it's Bitcoin's congestion cycles, Ethereum's DeFi and NFT peaks, or Solana's memecoin frenzy, all fee booms are ultimately compressed by innovation. Demand explosions lead to revenue peaks, peaks stimulate alternative solutions, and profits are systematically squeezed out. The compression of L1 value capture is not a cyclical phenomenon, but a structural outcome of open networks.
L1s and investors should consider: When the market stops pricing L1s based on "on-chain profits" and instead uses "asset narratives" and "structural capital flows," is this new logic equally fragile? When narratives recede, what fundamental support will prices return to?
Practical Implementation Guide: Core KPI Paradigm Shift: From "Vanity" to "Hardcore"; Modular Task Design: Building a Stepped "Funnel"; Risk Control and "Circuit Breaker" Design; "Pre-emptive" Experiments in Community Governance; Execution Check-list (Must-Read Before Launch).
Prediction Markets
The ETF Probe into Prediction Markets: Marching into the Mainstream, or Playing with Fire?
ETF issuers Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for prediction market ETFs. The core of these ETFs is tracking the outcomes of U.S. political elections, attempting to package the "probability of results" from U.S. political elections into a financial product that can be traded directly in traditional securities accounts.
If approved, investors in the future might no longer need to go to crypto's Polymarket or register with CFTC-regulated Kalshi. They could simply open their Robinhood or Fidelity accounts and bet on "who will win the White House" like buying a stock.
Collective intelligence might more broadly influence public perception of political events, liquidity would be amplified, and price signals might become sharper. But when probability is packaged as "market consensus," it's easily interpreted as an objective trend, and large capital介入 could trigger price manipulation.
Regulation remains the biggest uncertainty. The SEC might worry this is essentially the "gamblification" of finance, increasing manipulation or moral hazard.
When Teams Use Prediction Markets to Hedge Risks, a Multi-Billion Dollar Financial Market Emerges
Explains from a sports insurance perspective why teams should use prediction markets for hedging.
Fan Culture is Becoming the Differentiating Variable in Prediction Markets
In the early stages of prediction market development, competition revolves more around "underlying capabilities." Who is more compliant, who can gain regulatory approval, who has deeper liquidity and more efficient market-making structures determines who can first establish market trust. But macro events themselves are not exclusive. Competing repeatedly on the same topics can only lead to games played on worse liquidity and weaker trust foundations, making it hard to form truly structural differentiation.
For emerging prediction markets on BNB Chain, if rule design cannot form a barrier, then content structure and cultural positioning might become new competitive variables. It is precisely at this stage that "fan culture" begins to matter.
A platform's activity largely depends on whether topics can be repeatedly disseminated and amplified. For emerging prediction platforms, dissemination efficiency itself is a growth lever. What fan culture brings is not just short-term activity, but an emotional soil harder for external platforms to replicate.
Also recommended: 《Earning $8,000 in 4 Days: Complete Practical Guide to Polymarket LP Market Making》《Crushing Millions in Liquidity for Less Than 10 Cents: Order Attacks Could Hollow Out Polymarket's Liquidity Foundation》.
Policy & Stablecoins
The War Between Stablecoins and Banking Likely Doesn't Exist
The crypto industry and traditional financial market banks have long been in a tense standoff. The proposal and stalled progress of the stablecoin regulatory bill 《GENIUS ACT》 and the crypto structure bill 《CLARITY ACT》 are highly related to this adversarial state. For traditional banks, they fear stablecoins will erode their deposit share and massive user base, endangering their industry position and survival space. For the crypto industry, finding a path of harmonious coexistence with traditional banking to introduce the massive liquidity of traditional financial markets has become one of the few "lifelines."
The reality is, the war between them might not exist. As a16z Crypto partner Noah Levine said: "Just like the 'Jevons Paradox' that once existed between ATMs and bank tellers, the development of the crypto industry may help traditional banking find a new path forward."
On February 19, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Division of Trading and Markets issued a new FAQ clarifying how broker-dealers should handle payment stablecoins under the net capital rule. SEC Crypto Task Force Chair Hester Peirce subsequently issued a statement titled "A 2% Discount Will Do."
Peirce stated that SEC staff would not object if broker-dealers applied a "2% discount" rather than a punitive 100% discount to their proprietary positions in eligible payment stablecoins when calculating net capital. The 2% discount now places payment stablecoins on equal footing with money market funds holding similar underlying assets (like U.S. Treasuries, cash, and short-term government bonds). Peirce's statement and its accompanying FAQ effectively bridge the gap between the legislative framework of the 《GENIUS Act》 and the SEC's own rulebook. For the traditional financial services industry, the practical and direct impact of these moves is significant:
Banks and broker-dealers evaluating entry into digital assets can now better understand how their stablecoin holdings will be treated for capital purposes.
Companies previously hesitant due to operational costs of maintaining large positions (ultimately netting to zero on the balance sheet) can now reconsider.
Custodians, clearing firms, and Alternative Trading System (ATS) operators exploring tokenized securities settlement now know the settlement asset (stablecoin) won't be seen as a regulatory burden. The 《GENIUS Act》 implementation timeline is tight. State regulators must certify their regulatory frameworks by July 2026.
Also recommended: 《Latest Stablecoin Report: Real Distribution and Flow Are Far More Worth Watching Than Supply》.
Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Interaction Collection | Mahojin Check-in to Earn Points; KAIO Waitlist Application (February 23)
Ethereum & Scaling
Ethereum isn't abandoning L2s, but redefining the division of labor—L1 returns to its role as the most secure settlement layer, while L2s pursue differentiation and specialization, allowing the strategic focus to return to the mainnet itself. Under this thinking, the Based Rollup concept is expected to have its moment in the spotlight in 2026.
Integrating Rollup-like validation logic at the L1 level by the Ethereum protocol itself unifies the ultimate performance optimization and protocol-level security that originally belonged to L2s and the Ethereum mainnet. The most intuitive feeling for users with this design is that the Rollup seems embedded within Ethereum, not only inheriting L1's censorship resistance and liveness but, more importantly, solving the L2's biggest headache—synchronous composability. However, Based Rollup faces a practical challenge: if it completely follows L1's rhythm (one Slot every 12 seconds), the user experience would feel clunky.
To address this, the January community proposal 《Combining preconfirmations with based rollups for synchronous composability》 proposes a hybrid structure: retain low-latency sequenced blocks, generate a based block at the end of the slot, submit the based block to L1, and finally combine it with a pre-confirmation mechanism to achieve synchronous composability.
Beyond underlying scaling, the future breakout and规模化 development of the Ethereum ecosystem will revolve around three more structurally significant directions: Account Abstraction and the Erosion of Entry Barriers, Privacy & ZK-EVM, and On-Chain Sovereignty for AI Agents.
Why Continue Holding ETH After a 40% Drop in 2026?
ETH is cyberpunk money, and the cyberpunk aspect is reflected in the current environment. In a world both adversarial and interdependent, it is a bearer instrument.
Ethereum's positioning is here: building protocols that allow opposing institutions to interoperate, while preserving true exit rights and property rights for anyone who can sign and pay.
Ethereum Value Loop: Utility → Security → Credible Neutrality → More Utility.
CeFi & DeFi
Starting from HyperLiquid: What Kind of Exchange Do RWAs Truly Need?
HyperLiquid's real breakthrough is changing "trading sovereignty," bearing only market risk, not platform will. This is the on-chain realization of "exchange credit."
Aster's popularity is because: users have changed. Most users are not novices, not gamblers, but "strategy users / agents / automated systems." Trading behavior is no longer manual but systematic. Aster is essentially: providing a "legal, stable, composable trading execution environment" for AI / Bots / Agents / quant strategies.
Most RWA exchanges get stuck on three things: unclear legal liability, non-closed-loop清算与执行, and unnatural liquidity. For RWAs and RWA exchanges, the problem to solve is not "asset on-chain," but "liability,清算, and违约的制度上链." Who will be the first to thoroughly encode "liability,违约, and清算" into on-chain rules? When that day comes, RWAs will no longer be a narrative板块, but will become a new institutional financial基础层. And that is the real upgrade and evolution.
The next phase of Web3 is not an explosion point, but an接入点; not a流量口, but an制度口.
Web3 & AI
Tiger Research: How Crypto Giants Are Betting on AI Agent Payment Infrastructure
The payer is shifting from humans to AI Agents, making payment infrastructure a core requirement for achieving true autonomy.
Big tech companies (including Google AP2 and OpenAI Delegated Payment) are designing approval-based automated payment systems on top of existing platform infrastructure.
Cryptocurrency, through standards like ERC-8004 and x402, leverages NFT-based identity and smart contracts to achieve disintermediated payment models.
Big tech prioritizes convenience and consumer protection, while crypto emphasizes user sovereignty and broader Agent-level execution capabilities.
The key future question is: will payments be controlled by platforms or executed by open protocols.
Also recommended: 《A Memo from 2028: AI Will Bring a Super Economic Crisis Sweeping the World》.
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
In the past week, on February 26, BTC staged a strong V-shaped reversal, approaching the $70,000 mark;
Additionally, regarding policy and macro markets, Trump's "Peace Commission" is considering issuing a Gaza stablecoin for digital payment systems; Trump signaled easing U.S.-Iran tensions: prefers agreements over war; The White House confirmed
