Elon Musk on SpaceX Compute Layout: Space-based Compute Expected to Surpass Ground-based Compute by End of 2028

Odaily reported that Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire predicted through a model that SpaceX revenue will grow from approximately $51.5 billion in fiscal year 2026 to approximately $274 billion in fiscal year 2027, a year-over-year increase of about 5.3x, and further rise to approximately $731 billion in fiscal year 2028. The analysis suggests that SpaceX's growth is primarily driven by its Space Infrastructure (SI) business, especially the ground-based compute business, whose deployment scale is expected to expand from 1 GW in early 2026 to 21 GW by the end of 2028.

In response, Musk stated that compared to space-based compute, the scale of ground-based compute in the future will be negligible. He expects that by the end of 2028, SpaceX's monthly newly deployed orbital space-based compute may exceed ground-based compute, and will lead by a significant margin in 2029.