Brent crude breaks above $100, Polymarket bets odds of hitting $100 this month rise to 59%

Odaily News: Brent crude was reported at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day, marking its first time above $100 in six weeks; West Texas Intermediate crude was at $96.27. Saudi officials said Houthi militants attacked Saudi oil facilities on Tuesday morning, injuring 73 people.

The U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers the same day, following an attack on three on Saturday, in response to an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a U.S. warship. The crude oil market has been repricing following the escalation of related events.

In Myriad's market on whether crude first hits $120 or falls to $55, the probability for the $120 side is 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points from early September; the market has seen $12.7 million in trading volume since March. Polymarket data shows the probability of WTI hitting $100 this month is 59%, up 9 percentage points, while the probability of hitting $105 is 30%, up 25 percentage points.

On Polymarket, the probability of WTI falling to $85 this month has dropped to 39%, down 33 percentage points from the previous reading, with probabilities for all levels below $85 under 10%; the probability for $55 is 1%. U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, surpassing last week's high, while the average gasoline price stood at $4.22. (Decrypt)